Realized P&L (90d)
-$401
Unrealized P&L
-$216
Hit rate
68.7%
Resolved (90d)
1,434
Trades (90d)
10,920
20,377 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$82.0K
$110.0K lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$824
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-22
last 11-07 09:13
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 128 days
Categories
Other
63% 61% -$350
Politics
19% 63% -$50
Crypto
8% 60% -$22
Tech
5% 68% -$80
Sports
5% 55% -$10
Pop-Culture
0% 50% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 442 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +150 $111 75¢ $113 +$2 11-05 02:33
Will Raphinha win the 2027 Ballon d'Or? No +100 $86 88¢ $88 +$2 11-04 18:33
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No +100 $78 65¢ $65 -$12 10-28 22:51
Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? No +100 $73 60¢ $60 -$13 11-05 19:58
Will Besiktas finish top 8 in UEL league phase? No +80 $54 68¢ $54 +$0 11-07 06:59
Will "Obsession" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? No +50 $43 83¢ $42 -$2 11-04 01:43
Will the Democrats win Florida in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +50 $40 78¢ $39 -$1 11-07 02:06
Will Will Anderson Jr. win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? No +50 $36 66¢ $33 -$3 11-03 20:52
Will the New York Giants make the 2027 NFL Playoffs? No +80 $46 40¢ $32 -$13 10-28 17:08
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31 Yes +200 $48 16¢ $31 -$17 10-27 23:59
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027? No +40 $31 77¢ $31 $0 11-02 17:27
Will the Democrats win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +40 $31 76¢ $31 -$1 11-07 02:09
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? No +40 $30 72¢ $29 -$1 11-06 17:35
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? No +50 $36 40¢ $20 -$16 10-31 01:13
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2026 NFC West? No +21 $18 88¢ $18 +$0 11-04 06:01
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? No +50 $32 36¢ $18 -$15 10-25 16:50
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes +100 $28 16¢ $16 -$12 10-28 09:36
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? No +50 $21 29¢ $15 -$6 10-29 23:52
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? No +50 $27 26¢ $13 -$14 10-26 10:24
Will the Carolina Panthers have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season? Yes +32 $16 34¢ $11 -$5 11-05 01:11
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? Yes +50 $28 20¢ $10 -$18 10-26 15:59
Will Lux (Rosalía) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes +50 $12 19¢ $9 -$3 10-29 09:13
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? Yes +50 $27 17¢ $9 -$18 10-30 00:44
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? Yes +100 $40 8¢ $8 -$32 10-15 03:15
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No — +40 $8 18¢ $7 -$1 10-29 15:27
Will Ethereum hit $3k by December 31, 2026? Yes +40 $15 16¢ $6 -$9 10-21 15:19
Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship? No +5 $4 93¢ $5 +$0 08-15 08:27
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 94¢ $5 +$2 08-21 14:15
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes +50 $13 8¢ $4 -$8 10-26 12:31
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? No +4 $4 88¢ $4 $0 07-31 18:01