Realized P&L (90d)
-$656
Unrealized P&L
+$7.90K
Hit rate
24.9%
Resolved (90d)
4
Trades (90d)
355
1,019 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$135.0K
$366.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$360
Open exposure
$76.7K
27 positions
First seen
2026-01-24
last 10-28 19:04
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 41 days
Categories
Politics
61% 56% +$10,519
Other
35% 52% -$635
Tech
4% 75% +$662
Sports
0% 0% -$301
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
39 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +12,200 $7,392 70¢ $8.6K +$1,209 10-01 09:21
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -9,100 -$4,914 70¢ $-6415 -$1,501 09-13 12:50
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +6,805 $4,031 83¢ $5.6K +$1,617 10-01 14:02
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +7,720 $4,884 72¢ $5.5K +$635 10-20 03:01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +7,500 $4,875 74¢ $5.5K +$637 10-16 07:08
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +7,100 $4,189 70¢ $4.9K +$745 10-14 22:23
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +6,300 $4,364 76¢ $4.8K +$455 09-24 06:00
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +5,165 $3,952 90¢ $4.7K +$722 10-01 17:27
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes +9,653 $4,101 45¢ $4.3K +$243 10-28 19:04
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -4,217 -$3,837 94¢ $-3985 -$148 07-09 02:40
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +3,600 $3,024 98¢ $3.5K +$488 10-07 14:30
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +8,000 $3,426 42¢ $3.3K -$82 10-20 08:47
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes +6,200 $1,798 54¢ $3.3K +$1,519 10-01 02:31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +3,450 $2,751 82¢ $2.8K +$96 10-09 02:35
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No -4,900 -$2,947 57¢ $-2817 +$130 05-08 04:26
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -4,800 -$1,249 34¢ $-1632 -$383 06-17 04:19
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +10,000 $1,470 15¢ $1.5K +$75 10-21 17:39
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +7,000 $1,148 17¢ $1.2K +$25 10-22 18:21
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +3,214 $728 27¢ $868 +$140 10-16 03:00
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No +476 $307 82¢ $388 +$82 10-04 11:05
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +7,400 $503 5¢ $381 -$122 10-21 17:40
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +445 $294 70¢ $309 +$16 09-12 03:59
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? Yes -3,388 -$83 2¢ $-59 +$23 09-13 04:07
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes -630 -$50 6¢ $-35 +$16 09-15 03:44
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -400 -$20 5¢ $-21 -$1 10-21 03:24
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -500 -$13 2¢ $-12 +$0 10-21 03:23
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +0 -$1,265 94¢ $0 +$1,265 09-28 21:47