Unusual-Belfry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$47

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

74.6%

Resolved

Trades

4,582

lifetime

Volume

$15.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 07-21 11:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

93% 17% +$59

Politics

3% 0% $-1

Sports

2% 20% $-12

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes		+50	$4	11¢	$5	+$1	07-08 13:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will atltico madrid advance to the round of 16	5	$608	400	400	+0	open	—	02-11 15:59
will sarah knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	10	$147	130	130	+0	open	—	03-17 10:36
Will Marseille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?	7	$110	100	100	+0	No	+$82	05-06 09:25
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	5	$99	500	0	+500	open	—	05-14 21:28
highest temperature in toronto on march 4 2026 5corhigher	3	$69	40	40	+0	open	—	03-04 15:51
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$62	250	200	+50	open	—	03-18 12:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$55	60	60	+0	open	—	02-28 21:33
will bodglimt advance to the round of 16	3	$51	30	30	+0	open	—	02-24 21:40
highest temperature in atlanta on february 18 2026 68forhigher	5	$51	30	30	+0	open	—	02-18 19:32
highest temperature in atlanta on march 13 2026 66 67f	2	$49	96	60	+36	open	—	03-11 15:07
Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April?	3	$44	30	30	+0	open	—	03-28 17:28
highest temperature in ankara on march 11 2026 14corhigher	2	$42	29	29	+0	open	—	03-11 11:21
highest temperature in madrid on april 9 2026 27corhigher	3	$41	51	19	+31	open	—	04-09 14:57
highest temperature in dallas on march 4 2026 74forhigher	5	$41	17	25	-8	open	—	03-04 10:10
highest temperature in sao paulo on march 23 2026 29c	5	$39	30	30	+0	open	—	03-23 20:32
highest temperature in toronto on march 11 2026 8corhigher	3	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	03-11 08:57
will franois piquemal be the next mayor of toulouse following the 2026 toulouse municipal election	2	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	03-11 12:13
will jean luc moudenc be the next mayor of toulouse following the 2026 toulouse municipal election	2	$37	31	31	+0	open	—	03-15 22:24
highest temperature in chicago on march 7 2026 60forhigher	3	$37	20	20	+0	open	—	03-07 06:27
spx up or down on february 2 2026	5	$37	32	32	+0	open	—	02-02 15:32
will real madrid advance to the round of 16	3	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	02-19 13:58
will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	4	$34	25	25	+0	open	—	07-05 22:08
highest temperature in buenos aires on march 6 2026 25corhigher	3	$33	20	20	+0	open	—	03-06 15:19
highest temperature in miami on february 22 2026 88 89f	5	$32	10	30	-20	open	—	02-22 21:33
will turkey qualify for the 2026 fifa world cup	3	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	03-31 20:52
highest temperature in london on march 6 2026 13corbelow	4	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	03-06 13:44
highest temperature in nyc on march 11 2026 56forhigher	3	$29	15	15	+0	open	—	03-11 03:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$29	50	50	+0	open	—	04-08 11:38
will grgory doucet win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	3	$29	20	40	-20	open	—	03-15 22:20
highest temperature in toronto on march 20 2026 5c	3	$29	24	24	+0	open	—	03-21 01:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 11:32:28	will isaac del toro finish top 3 in the 2026 tour de france 20260702210405702	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xcfa99f…
07-20 13:41:54	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xe8fddb…
07-19 17:04:52	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x94535a…
07-19 16:11:03	will lamine yamal score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932026	Yes	SELL	66	0¢	$0	0x7f1711…
07-19 16:10:10	will lamine yamal score 2 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932022	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x02befb…
07-09 14:09:52	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xec0772…
07-09 14:09:22	next mythos class model released by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x82c544…
07-08 13:06:59	will trump visit north korea by december 31	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x816b57…
07-08 13:04:41	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x56675a…
07-08 12:39:22	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0xa6c692…
07-08 00:40:14	will jordan bardella advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xf2d573…
07-08 00:33:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x84d1d0…
07-07 17:09:52	will there be 5 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750573	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7aea53…
07-07 13:09:31	will there be 5 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750573	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xd04809…
07-07 13:09:14	will there be 10 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750574	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x944e41…
07-05 22:08:26	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd927da…
07-05 20:06:28	will solana reach 100 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xf3af14…
07-05 20:04:07	will xauusd reach 4400 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xa3018a…
07-05 20:03:44	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x63972f…
07-05 20:03:16	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	45	8¢	$4	0x473ee9…
07-05 19:50:43	will solana reach 100 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x9dc07f…
07-05 19:50:04	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xefc228…
07-05 19:47:37	will harry kane score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611170337382	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x8202ba…
07-05 19:46:08	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xc31eef…
07-05 19:44:53	Will Olivia Rodrigo perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xeaf413…
07-05 19:41:58	Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x5957d5…
07-05 19:39:08	Will Drake perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xcbe4ed…
07-04 14:27:02	mcdonalds in cuba announced in 2026 20260626010407076	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xdb65b0…
06-28 18:06:20	will neymar score 2 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108554	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xf2517f…
06-28 18:05:50	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xaa302a…
06-28 17:59:37	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	No	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x485d08…
06-23 19:31:13	will harry kane score 5 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611170337381	Yes	BUY	13	71¢	$9	0xc12977…
06-23 19:29:34	will harry kane score 5 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611170337381	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x342960…
06-21 14:18:04	will lamine yamal score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932024	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x6fbf7c…
06-21 14:17:43	will lamine yamal score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932026	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0x795f0d…
06-21 14:12:19	will lamine yamal score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932026	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$0	0x8d128e…
06-21 14:11:52	will lamine yamal score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932024	Yes	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0x90dbd8…
06-21 14:11:34	will lamine yamal score 3 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932023	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x4c6cb1…
06-21 14:10:40	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x811ce2…
06-20 17:10:52	will harry kane score 5 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611170337381	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x79a3df…
06-20 17:10:10	will kylian mbappe score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144023007	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x858729…
06-20 17:06:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xa1035d…
05-14 21:28:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xde1d87…
05-13 15:01:19	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x0e8150…
05-13 14:40:38	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x270a70…
05-13 13:22:52	Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?	Yes	BUY	66	5¢	$3	0x1ebd9d…
05-13 13:20:31	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xfea933…
05-13 13:19:57	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x6cd30d…
05-13 13:09:12	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13?	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xa80e08…
05-08 13:09:27	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x999135…
05-08 12:56:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0x5b9d49…
05-08 12:55:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	30¢	$21	0x36b28d…
05-08 12:50:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x61bbd1…
05-08 12:44:11	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x7a6b0c…
05-06 09:25:56	Will Marseille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0xc9b5b3…
05-06 09:25:56	Will Marseille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?	No	SELL	35	95¢	$33	0xc5f68a…
05-06 09:25:56	Will Marseille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?	No	SELL	15	95¢	$14	0x140c4c…
05-05 15:11:16	Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	18	15¢	$3	0xd102ef…
05-05 15:09:44	Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xbc8005…
05-05 15:02:50	Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x1b8cd5…
05-05 14:31:52	Will BuzzFeed (BZFD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xf39b63…
05-05 14:30:08	Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xed3973…
05-05 14:27:02	Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x12a7a5…
05-05 14:26:22	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	24	13¢	$3	0x4fb474…
05-02 13:52:10	Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x68cc6e…
05-02 13:51:12	Will "Six Seven" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xd90239…
05-02 13:36:44	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x90e9b2…
04-30 19:41:36	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	42	6¢	$3	0x9171e9…
04-30 19:40:50	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	42	28¢	$12	0x9d788f…
04-30 13:11:10	Will Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf36bea…
04-28 22:12:46	Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6e65c7…
04-27 13:25:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xca18a6…
04-27 13:23:50	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x022fe5…
04-27 13:22:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0xfa7027…
04-27 10:20:08	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x9098da…
04-27 10:19:48	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0x900856…
04-27 10:19:30	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on April 29?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xecf36e…
04-27 10:19:10	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0xb0026e…
04-27 10:18:18	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xb862e2…
04-27 10:17:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0xd2aa6d…
04-27 10:16:48	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April 29?	Yes	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x62d860…
04-27 10:15:06	Will Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xaf3d34…
04-27 10:14:26	Will Teladoc Health (TDOC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x80bc3b…
04-27 10:13:40	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0x463627…
04-27 10:12:50	Will Teladoc Health (TDOC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xfd3988…
04-27 10:12:26	Will Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xc96439…
04-27 10:12:02	Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x69eb04…
04-27 10:11:40	Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xc29868…
04-27 10:11:20	Will Aflac (AFL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x654caa…
04-27 10:10:48	Will Penske Automotive Group (PAG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x3103c8…
04-27 10:09:50	Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x7061e9…
04-27 10:09:16	Will Caesars Entertainment (CZR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xe00cd7…
04-27 10:08:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	14	26¢	$4	0x9b9802…
04-27 10:07:26	Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xf0b43e…
04-27 09:58:06	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xe0d9e8…
04-27 09:49:14	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x38cf1e…
04-27 09:45:22	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0xd10258…
04-27 09:44:00	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	15	31¢	$5	0xc5b34c…
04-27 09:43:02	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x91aaa7…
04-27 09:40:52	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x85ee23…