Watchful-Fund — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$559

Unrealized P&L

-$286

Hit rate

95.9%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

1,121 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$29.5K

$352.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$314

Open exposure

$11.0K

14 positions

First seen

2026-03-02

last 10-27 21:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Politics

72% 67% +$5,288

Other

15% 57% +$3,174

Tech

7% 62% +$2,066

Crypto

6% 20% -$671

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+6,867	$6,470	94¢	$6.4K	-$49	10-27 21:32
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,007	$1,893	94¢	$1.9K	+$1	10-12 19:03
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,123	$564	72¢	$814	+$250	09-17 17:50
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-500	-$450	96¢	$-481	-$31	06-14 22:13
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	+644	$344	74¢	$474	+$129	09-23 22:09
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	No	+719	$675	62¢	$449	-$226	10-05 15:08
will the highest score achieved on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190142923	Yes	+241	$146	58¢	$141	-$5	10-12 19:21
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+400	$211	33¢	$132	-$79	10-27 20:19
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	+416	$187	18¢	$77	-$110	09-10 16:56
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	+200	$101	26¢	$53	-$48	09-23 17:23
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$76	28¢	$28	-$48	09-10 16:55
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+106	$15	6¢	$7	-$8	05-14 21:59
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	-28	$36	12¢	$-3	-$39	06-14 22:13
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+84	$24	1¢	$1	-$23	09-30 22:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	44	$51.3K	53,774	14,081	+39,693	Yes	+$1,580	06-17 21:00
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	32	$46.2K	48,552	1,711	+46,841	No	+$1,310	06-23 23:58
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	25	$33.5K	20,308	15,608	+4,700	No	+$1,791	06-16 12:59
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	46	$24.0K	15,870	15,270	+600	No	+$213	06-29 16:04
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	25	$17.1K	18,796	0	+18,796	Yes	+$1,705	06-20 14:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	29	$16.5K	14,114	8,902	+5,213	No	-$1,059	06-03 20:53
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	6	$11.8K	12,311	0	+12,311	Yes	+$513	06-21 10:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$10.7K	8,800	2,596	+6,204	No	+$561	05-27 08:13
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	12	$8.3K	8,979	0	+8,979	Yes	+$697	06-20 15:22
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 21 2026	50	$8.1K	6,907	2,360	+4,547	No	-$105	06-24 09:27
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	4	$6.5K	6,867	0	+6,867	open	—	10-27 21:32
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	38	$6.4K	8,946	1,605	+7,341	Yes	-$1,457	07-01 20:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	17	$6.2K	8,373	0	+8,373	No	+$2,133	05-28 22:59
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	29	$5.7K	6,952	6,952	+0	Yes	-$2,163	06-20 14:50
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	3	$3.4K	3,591	0	+3,591	Yes	+$200	09-15 22:32
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	33	$3.3K	2,013	2,013	+0	No	+$601	06-14 22:09
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	3	$3.0K	1,500	1,620	-120	No	+$17	06-14 22:08
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	20	$3.0K	3,406	3,406	+0	Yes	-$1,166	06-14 22:09
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	5	$2.8K	1,488	1,488	-0	open	—	06-14 22:09
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	15	$2.7K	2,219	2,219	+0	No	-$353	04-20 18:38
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	1	$2.7K	2,700	0	+2,700	Yes	+$3	06-17 21:04
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	24	$2.4K	2,940	1,982	+957	Yes	+$112	05-28 16:51
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	24	$2.4K	3,294	55	+3,239	No	+$870	04-16 22:11
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	6	$2.4K	1,654	1,654	+0	Yes	+$858	06-12 19:53
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	2	$2.2K	2,400	0	+2,400	Yes	+$246	09-15 22:35
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	8	$2.1K	2,250	600	+1,650	Yes	+$314	06-17 21:41
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$2.0K	1,285	995	+290	No	+$222	05-26 21:19
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	9	$2.0K	2,080	0	+2,080	No	+$94	06-22 11:10
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.9K	2,007	0	+2,007	open	—	10-12 19:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	1	$1.8K	1,870	0	+1,870	No	+$22	09-15 22:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 21:32:38	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	700	94¢	$658	0xe77b68…
10-27 20:19:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	52¢	$105	0x3e8236…
10-27 20:18:42	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	80	53¢	$42	0x144eb9…
10-27 20:18:05	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	118	53¢	$63	0xf7b590…
10-27 20:17:48	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x3c6367…
10-23 08:24:03	Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026?	No	BUY	300	98¢	$295	0x39710d…
10-14 15:38:19	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	650	91¢	$591	0x73db26…
10-13 13:05:55	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	181	88¢	$159	0x971a68…
10-12 19:21:12	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	241	60¢	$145	0x8e5900…
10-12 19:03:45	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,159	98¢	$1,131	0x0e9060…
10-12 15:12:41	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	634	91¢	$577	0x24eb4a…
10-12 15:10:06	Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5df4af…
10-12 15:04:12	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,336	1¢	$13	0x988986…
10-09 23:02:52	Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?	Yes	BUY	200	29¢	$58	0x5c0314…
10-06 08:39:54	Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xfc9b72…
10-05 15:08:55	Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe9ace3…
10-05 14:58:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	148	70¢	$104	0x535a07…
10-05 14:43:01	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	1,447	95¢	$1,375	0xde7f49…
10-05 14:42:13	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	70¢	$74	0xc35133…
10-05 13:34:10	Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	127	59¢	$75	0x210c80…
10-05 13:25:28	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0xed8691…
10-05 13:25:04	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	1,220	94¢	$1,147	0x212597…
10-05 13:22:58	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	SELL	319	20¢	$64	0x55f874…
10-05 07:30:13	Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	410	60¢	$246	0x1d9e5d…
10-04 20:03:02	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	3,500	94¢	$3,290	0xb7393a…
10-02 21:54:02	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	518	83¢	$430	0xe5210a…
10-02 21:52:47	Clavicular charges dropped by October 31?	No	BUY	339	81¢	$274	0x8cff3c…
10-02 21:49:32	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No	BUY	1,252	0¢	$3	0xc4f889…
10-02 21:45:00	Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?	No	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x928c3b…
10-02 21:44:00	Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	BUY	136	92¢	$125	0xe136c5…
09-30 22:25:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	28¢	$24	0xd0ff9a…
09-29 17:59:38	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	SELL	426	21¢	$90	0xb659aa…
09-23 22:09:28	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	56¢	$151	0x52334a…
09-23 17:24:20	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	54¢	$53	0x30019f…
09-23 17:23:50	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	52¢	$27	0x3de96a…
09-23 17:23:25	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	223	51¢	$113	0x9d2d33…
09-23 17:23:08	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x819047…
09-23 17:22:55	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xbe2bbe…
09-20 19:49:52	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	326	44¢	$143	0x671150…
09-17 17:50:37	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	41¢	$122	0xed1c4a…
09-17 17:46:37	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	293	96¢	$281	0x79a8da…
09-17 17:46:00	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0xa4af65…
09-17 17:45:58	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	29¢	$70	0x8d44a6…
09-17 14:29:10	Astra removed from public access by October 31?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x05a4c1…
09-16 11:41:12	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	384	56¢	$214	0xd72a20…
09-15 22:36:54	Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	BUY	325	93¢	$303	0x2441c6…
09-15 22:35:21	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	94¢	$378	0xc9d78f…
09-15 22:34:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	BUY	1,870	99¢	$1,848	0x81b04d…
09-15 22:32:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	97¢	$967	0x11676b…
09-15 22:32:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,591	96¢	$1,533	0x97af7e…
09-15 22:31:09	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	439	52¢	$228	0x1cc515…
09-13 21:57:18	Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	BUY	570	93¢	$528	0xfb70e4…
09-11 11:49:21	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	31¢	$155	0x3eaadd…
09-11 10:39:43	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	30¢	$27	0xa22e41…
09-11 10:37:21	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	30¢	$4	0x6c3c27…
09-11 08:12:10	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	SELL	154	26¢	$40	0xc36f95…
09-11 07:13:15	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	32¢	$30	0x390ebb…
09-11 07:12:37	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	302	43¢	$129	0xaa7cf0…
09-10 22:52:48	Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0xd1070d…
09-10 22:43:31	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x396413…
09-10 22:22:46	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	BUY	320	39¢	$125	0x6ba571…
09-10 22:22:39	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	450	33¢	$147	0x38d113…
09-10 21:25:33	Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	480	85¢	$408	0x460dcb…
09-10 20:52:31	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	28¢	$20	0x44c885…
09-10 20:29:31	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	BUY	838	96¢	$805	0x47d039…
09-10 17:03:03	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,430	66¢	$949	0x42f2fa…
09-10 17:01:37	Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x1aa910…
09-10 16:58:18	Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0xd8c349…
09-10 16:58:03	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$5	0xcbda1b…
09-10 16:56:09	Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	BUY	416	45¢	$187	0xdd226b…
09-10 16:55:21	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x96cdaf…
09-10 16:54:04	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	62¢	$34	0xd204a6…
09-10 16:45:10	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xf0db83…
09-10 16:45:10	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0x61b905…
09-10 12:01:58	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	89¢	$1,776	0x63b342…
09-08 21:42:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,143	93¢	$1,060	0xfdb012…
09-08 21:34:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0x50aa7f…
09-08 21:33:15	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	847	90¢	$762	0x1d3ad7…
09-07 18:17:45	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	808	62¢	$501	0xcf468e…
08-20 13:18:18	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x57af45…
08-19 13:12:16	Will Microsoft AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	12¢	$10	0x9d7333…
08-19 13:11:46	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	76¢	$78	0x04d0b3…
08-19 11:16:01	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x0c1084…
08-19 05:49:43	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x77a4a4…
08-19 05:49:24	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xd2d655…
08-15 22:55:13	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	810	37¢	$300	0xdc9060…
08-15 19:11:04	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x7fcdc8…
08-15 03:31:19	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xb72209…
08-14 18:47:45	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	100	37¢	$37	0xfe075a…
08-14 17:29:31	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	80	37¢	$30	0xf03ce4…
08-14 12:10:25	will the highest score achieved on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190142923	Yes	BUY	1,332	58¢	$779	0xde9b4a…
08-03 10:03:48	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	820	84¢	$691	0x308171…
07-31 12:40:36	will the highest score achieved on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190142923	Yes	BUY	283	55¢	$156	0x51261f…
07-31 08:58:44	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	955	89¢	$850	0xc1e32a…
07-31 08:58:14	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0xa6225c…
07-28 13:14:19	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by december 31 2026 20260715004553752	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$20	0x5966ac…
07-28 13:01:34	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?	No	BUY	150	50¢	$75	0x0bda37…
07-28 12:57:13	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by december 31 2026 20260715004553752	Yes	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0x293887…
07-28 12:55:31	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by december 31 2026 20260715004553752	Yes	BUY	1,316	97¢	$1,278	0x1608af…
07-23 21:57:15	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$13	0xcf5387…