Disastrous-Bend 0xe000e1…d5cbb1
whale bot
← all wallets
Realized P&L (30d)
+$204
Unrealized P&L
+$646
Hit rate
68.6%
Resolved (30d)
53
Trades (30d)
558
17,265 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$7.63K
$153.9K lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$6.20K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-07
last 10-30 13:01
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 124 days
Categories
Politics
55% 60% +$963
Other
44% 59% -$7,426
Crypto
1% 100% +$127
Tech
0% 75% -$37
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
69 active days in 12wk • peak 151 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +4,697 $1,045 30¢ $1.4K +$388 10-29 23:39
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No -668 -$534 99¢ $-659 -$125 05-01 00:09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? No +610 $225 74¢ $455 +$229 10-29 21:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +443 $317 90¢ $396 +$79 10-24 18:16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +1,170 $293 29¢ $333 +$40 10-29 22:51
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +849 $396 30¢ $251 -$145 09-22 15:41
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +288 $193 84¢ $240 +$48 10-21 06:31
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +733 $175 28¢ $201 +$26 10-29 22:51
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +639 $306 30¢ $189 -$117 09-22 20:47
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +253 $151 72¢ $181 +$29 09-05 01:57
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No +537 $261 30¢ $158 -$102 10-23 21:33
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No -159 -$136 99¢ $-158 -$22 06-14 11:11
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No +280 $157 56¢ $155 -$2 10-08 00:54
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +200 $160 72¢ $143 -$17 09-13 19:57
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +150 $134 91¢ $136 +$2 08-14 07:28
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026 No +130 $103 99¢ $129 +$26 09-24 03:44
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes -4,300 -$203 2¢ $-105 +$97 07-03 09:36
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +125 $69 82¢ $102 +$33 10-29 20:39
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes +180 $101 56¢ $100 -$1 10-07 18:14
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No +307 $79 29¢ $88 +$9 10-29 22:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No +75 $60 94¢ $70 +$11 10-24 18:16
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes -271 -$123 24¢ $-64 +$59 10-23 21:33
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +320 $56 19¢ $62 +$6 10-29 23:30
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +570 $67 11¢ $60 -$7 10-29 05:43
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No +233 $108 25¢ $58 -$50 09-23 14:36
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes -2,002 -$117 3¢ $-58 +$59 07-16 07:51
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +100 $57 57¢ $57 +$0 10-06 18:08
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -322 -$151 17¢ $-55 +$96 09-27 01:44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? Yes +100 $51 52¢ $52 +$0 10-27 18:23
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes +650 $52 8¢ $49 -$3 09-06 08:24