Realized P&L (90d)
-$110.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$35.6K
Hit rate
25.1%
Resolved (90d)
14,214
Trades (90d)
123,339
124,691 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$7.15M
$7.38M lifetime
Avg / trade
$59
Open exposure
$517.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-06
last 11-08 04:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 150 days
Categories
Other
62% 57% -$77,893
Politics
23% 25% -$17,629
Sports
11% 12% -$18,257
Tech
2% 13% -$864
Crypto
1% 42% -$480
Pop-Culture
0% 27% -$569
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 5624 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +61,383 $45,850 76¢ $47.0K +$1,108 11-05 17:15
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +55,172 $25,744 66¢ $36.4K +$10,697 11-07 21:42
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +25,403 $24,324 98¢ $24.9K +$533 10-19 16:02
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +35,635 $21,270 63¢ $22.4K +$1,091 11-04 04:10
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +28,624 $21,757 76¢ $21.6K -$147 11-05 21:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +23,799 $19,996 90¢ $21.3K +$1,304 11-04 17:34
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +20,353 $15,613 99¢ $20.1K +$4,506 11-04 16:02
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +21,921 $17,004 90¢ $19.7K +$2,724 10-25 09:13
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +19,681 $19,086 98¢ $19.3K +$231 10-19 11:45
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +55,172 $29,786 34¢ $18.7K -$11,055 11-07 21:42
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +18,412 $17,335 99¢ $18.2K +$838 10-16 17:51
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? No +21,494 $14,849 82¢ $17.5K +$2,669 11-05 19:07
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +18,013 $13,465 93¢ $16.7K +$3,269 10-28 21:44
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +16,407 $5,936 98¢ $16.0K +$10,085 10-24 22:45
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +15,637 $14,755 97¢ $15.2K +$453 11-02 20:56
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +16,188 $12,274 94¢ $15.1K +$2,870 11-06 14:22
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +27,099 $15,663 55¢ $14.9K -$772 11-05 03:59
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +61,383 $16,103 24¢ $14.4K -$1,678 11-05 17:15
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +15,604 $11,497 88¢ $13.7K +$2,157 10-23 16:26
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +35,635 $14,820 37¢ $13.3K -$1,545 11-04 04:10
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +12,739 $11,899 96¢ $12.2K +$318 11-03 21:41
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +27,099 $11,578 45¢ $12.2K +$630 11-05 03:59
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +13,095 $11,734 92¢ $12.1K +$379 11-06 08:21
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +16,282 $12,166 74¢ $12.0K -$142 11-05 21:03
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? No +20,084 $8,575 60¢ $11.9K +$3,375 11-04 02:10
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +12,565 $11,239 90¢ $11.2K +$6 11-04 17:16
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +10,583 $9,837 96¢ $10.1K +$270 11-05 15:20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +11,131 $10,045 90¢ $10.0K -$83 11-05 21:34
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No +10,030 $9,376 98¢ $9.8K +$428 10-12 12:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +11,778 $8,208 78¢ $9.2K +$1,038 11-06 09:37