Realized P&L
-$129.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$68.8K
Hit rate
24.6%
Resolved
17,176
Trades
140,355
lifetime
Volume
$8.24M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$59
Open exposure
$559.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-06
last 11-15 08:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 157 days
Categories
Other
61% 56% -$88,503
Politics
23% 25% -$18,404
Sports
11% 13% -$20,383
Tech
2% 10% -$991
Crypto
1% 42% -$578
Pop-Culture
0% 22% -$605
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 5624 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +61,383 $45,850 86¢ $53.1K +$7,246 11-05 17:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +48,172 $29,382 81¢ $39.0K +$9,613 11-13 23:14
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +58,814 $28,034 64¢ $37.5K +$9,460 11-11 12:32
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +28,624 $21,757 96¢ $27.6K +$5,821 11-05 21:24
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +25,403 $24,324 98¢ $24.9K +$584 10-19 16:02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +26,080 $22,051 92¢ $24.1K +$2,073 11-12 18:43
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +21,921 $17,004 98¢ $21.6K +$4,566 10-25 09:13
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +58,814 $31,179 36¢ $21.3K -$9,858 11-11 19:03
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +19,681 $19,086 99¢ $19.4K +$329 10-19 11:45
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +18,412 $17,335 98¢ $18.1K +$773 10-16 17:51
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +18,414 $13,837 90¢ $16.7K +$2,818 11-13 10:29
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +16,407 $5,936 98¢ $16.1K +$10,184 10-24 22:45
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +16,188 $12,274 96¢ $15.5K +$3,234 11-11 03:29
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +15,637 $14,755 97¢ $15.2K +$484 11-02 20:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +15,937 $12,966 94¢ $14.9K +$1,935 11-11 08:16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +15,998 $14,243 90¢ $14.4K +$123 11-09 13:23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +24,854 $7,961 57¢ $14.3K +$6,330 11-13 20:00
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +27,099 $15,663 53¢ $14.3K -$1,395 11-05 03:59
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? No +20,084 $8,575 70¢ $14.2K +$5,584 11-04 02:10
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +16,551 $15,085 86¢ $14.2K -$934 11-13 11:05
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +15,604 $11,497 90¢ $14.0K +$2,469 10-23 16:26
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +14,180 $12,827 94¢ $13.3K +$432 11-08 23:26
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +27,099 $11,578 47¢ $12.8K +$1,253 11-05 03:59
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +12,863 $12,017 98¢ $12.6K +$543 11-09 19:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +12,980 $11,143 96¢ $12.4K +$1,253 11-11 21:58
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +12,352 $11,530 97¢ $12.0K +$495 11-09 23:12
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +16,282 $12,166 74¢ $12.0K -$158 11-05 21:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +12,491 $11,296 93¢ $11.6K +$345 11-11 12:51
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +11,778 $8,208 96¢ $11.4K +$3,152 11-06 09:37
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +12,050 $11,035 92¢ $11.1K +$57 11-11 23:15