Realized P&L
-$125.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$58.7K
Hit rate
24.8%
Resolved
16,520
Trades
137,230
lifetime
Volume
$8.06M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$59
Open exposure
$555.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-06
last 11-13 09:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 155 days
Categories
Other
61% 56% -$84,943
Politics
23% 25% -$18,356
Sports
12% 13% -$20,383
Tech
2% 11% -$965
Crypto
1% 43% -$564
Pop-Culture
0% 23% -$599
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 5624 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +61,383 $45,850 88¢ $54.3K +$8,474 11-05 17:15
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +58,814 $28,034 64¢ $37.7K +$9,695 11-11 12:32
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +46,075 $27,779 73¢ $33.8K +$6,017 11-10 11:08
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +28,624 $21,757 97¢ $27.8K +$6,022 11-05 21:24
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +25,403 $24,324 98¢ $25.0K +$647 10-19 16:02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +26,080 $22,051 92¢ $24.1K +$2,073 11-12 18:43
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +58,814 $31,179 36¢ $21.1K -$10,094 11-11 19:03
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +21,921 $17,004 94¢ $20.6K +$3,601 10-25 09:13
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +19,681 $19,086 98¢ $19.4K +$270 10-19 11:45
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +18,412 $17,335 98¢ $18.1K +$773 10-16 17:51
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +18,414 $13,837 92¢ $16.9K +$3,066 11-13 10:29
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +16,407 $5,936 98¢ $16.1K +$10,151 10-24 22:45
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +16,188 $12,274 97¢ $15.6K +$3,355 11-11 03:29
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +15,637 $14,755 97¢ $15.2K +$453 11-02 20:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +15,937 $12,966 92¢ $14.7K +$1,775 11-11 08:16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +24,588 $7,801 60¢ $14.6K +$6,828 11-13 07:03
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +27,099 $15,663 54¢ $14.6K -$1,043 11-05 03:59
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +15,998 $14,243 90¢ $14.5K +$211 11-09 13:23
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +15,604 $11,497 90¢ $14.0K +$2,469 10-23 16:26
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? No +20,084 $8,575 68¢ $13.8K +$5,183 11-04 02:10
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +16,551 $15,085 82¢ $13.7K -$1,430 11-13 11:05
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +14,180 $12,827 94¢ $13.3K +$432 11-08 23:26
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +12,863 $12,017 97¢ $12.5K +$473 11-09 19:53
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +27,099 $11,578 46¢ $12.5K +$901 11-05 03:59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +46,075 $18,791 27¢ $12.3K -$6,512 11-10 11:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +12,980 $11,143 94¢ $12.3K +$1,123 11-11 21:58
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +16,282 $12,166 74¢ $12.0K -$158 11-05 21:03
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +12,352 $11,530 97¢ $11.9K +$396 11-09 23:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +12,491 $11,296 93¢ $11.6K +$283 11-11 12:51
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +11,778 $8,208 97¢ $11.5K +$3,258 11-06 09:37