Dearest-Caviar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$40

Unrealized P&L

+$136

Hit rate

58.6%

Resolved

Trades

469

lifetime

Volume

$30.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

$2.35K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 10-13 14:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Politics

82% 40% +$110

Sports

7% 25% +$34

Crypto

6% 0% -$108

Other

6% 57% +$5

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,400	$1,387	100¢	$1.4K	+$9	10-13 14:49
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+629	$611	98¢	$619	+$7	10-13 14:47
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?	No	-153	-$150	95¢	$-146	+$4	09-08 01:18
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	+100	$50	95¢	$95	+$45	05-06 04:10
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	No	+88	$71	99¢	$86	+$15	05-06 04:09
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-9,167	-$64	0¢	$-9	+$55	07-02 10:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	117	$6.5K	15,019	14,804	+215	Yes	+$226	04-10 15:50
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	4	$4.2K	4,211	4,211	+0	open	—	08-22 14:15
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	25	$4.0K	7,488	7,488	+0	No	-$64	10-13 14:46
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.0K	5,832	5,832	+0	No	+$87	06-16 16:58
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	25	$1.7K	3,266	3,266	+0	Yes	+$32	07-23 11:56
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026	101	$1.6K	2,967	3,298	-331	No	+$31	04-10 15:51
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$1.4K	1,400	0	+1,400	open	—	10-13 14:49
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	19	$1.2K	1,850	1,850	+0	Yes	-$96	07-23 12:18
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	10	$949	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	-$21	07-23 09:21
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	35	$883	4,643	7,054	-2,411	No	+$96	04-09 14:47
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	7	$844	5,036	5,036	-0	No	-$54	10-13 14:46
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	56	$720	2,413	2,492	-79	No	-$6	04-09 08:19
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$611	629	0	+629	open	—	10-13 14:47
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	6	$600	2,200	2,200	+0	No	-$19	10-13 14:45
will wti dip to 80 in july 2026	10	$460	800	800	+0	Yes	-$72	07-23 09:32
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$320	400	0	+400	Yes	+$80	07-12 06:54
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	7	$310	1,035	1,035	+0	Yes	+$0	07-23 11:38
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$265	500	0	+500	Yes	+$235	09-08 14:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$235	500	0	+500	No	-$235	09-08 14:37
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	4	$206	3,000	3,000	+0	No	-$14	07-23 14:46
Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	1	$172	200	0	+200	open	—	10-13 14:48
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	13	$170	170	170	+0	Yes	$0	07-23 09:35
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?	2	$168	10	163	-153	open	—	09-08 01:18
Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	2	$106	53	53	+0	open	—	08-11 03:09
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	1	$106	120	0	+120	Yes	-$106	01-31 17:23
Will Podemos (PODEMOS) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?	2	$100	50	50	+0	No	+$0	09-08 14:35
will ink launch a token by june 30 2026	1	$95	96	0	+96	No	+$1	06-11 07:08
2026 Balance of Power: Other	2	$74	4,331	4,331	+0	No	-$4	06-11 07:07
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	1	$71	88	0	+88	open	—	05-06 04:09
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	1	$64	0	9,167	-9,167	open	—	07-02 10:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 14:49:10	Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,400	99¢	$1,387	0xe1d47a…
10-13 14:48:22	Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x27be59…
10-13 14:47:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	629	97¢	$611	0x5de435…
10-13 14:46:34	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	3,777	8¢	$298	0x2c6875…
10-13 14:46:13	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	1,547	26¢	$399	0x0f2189…
10-13 14:45:55	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	2,200	13¢	$290	0x42b3ae…
10-13 14:00:11	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	4,641	26¢	$1,214	0xcf06cc…
10-13 11:50:46	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	108	26¢	$28	0x379f06…
10-13 11:50:34	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	165	26¢	$43	0x8d9efc…
10-13 11:50:32	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	636	26¢	$167	0xfefa48…
10-13 11:50:28	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	379	26¢	$100	0x2dcf5e…
10-13 11:50:23	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	1,600	27¢	$426	0x522091…
10-13 08:07:05	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	1,100	27¢	$294	0x80282f…
10-13 08:05:49	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	1,259	8¢	$97	0xfc0120…
10-13 07:49:46	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	1,194	14¢	$165	0x37bd74…
10-13 07:49:31	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	1,000	27¢	$271	0xb66fa9…
10-13 07:48:34	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	232	27¢	$63	0xddbac5…
10-13 07:46:26	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x6d488a…
10-13 07:43:11	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0xfe81e0…
10-13 07:43:11	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	243	27¢	$66	0x34e01b…
10-13 07:43:11	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	125	27¢	$34	0x324dde…
10-13 07:43:04	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xcaa843…
10-13 07:41:38	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	190	27¢	$52	0x3b24df…
10-13 07:41:32	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$55	0xb10f8f…
10-13 07:41:23	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xe81525…
10-13 07:41:23	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	364	27¢	$100	0xe59d33…
10-13 07:41:22	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	344	14¢	$50	0xd45f86…
10-13 07:41:22	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	186	14¢	$27	0xa7dfc8…
10-13 07:41:22	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	298	9¢	$26	0x9a3d4d…
10-13 07:41:22	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	110	27¢	$30	0x873a5f…
10-13 07:41:22	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	390	9¢	$34	0x71d32a…
10-13 07:41:22	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	312	9¢	$27	0x36f6f1…
10-13 07:41:22	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	470	14¢	$68	0x0a3e2c…
10-13 07:26:04	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$55	0x0ee20a…
10-13 06:35:40	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	400	28¢	$111	0xb09798…
10-13 06:34:35	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	1,200	9¢	$108	0xac1dee…
10-13 06:33:28	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	200	28¢	$55	0xcaea7e…
10-13 06:32:55	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	400	28¢	$110	0x3eef1b…
10-13 06:29:16	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	1,000	28¢	$276	0xcb997d…
10-13 06:27:48	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	2,836	9¢	$255	0x59433e…
09-08 14:37:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	53¢	$265	0xab8c95…
09-08 14:37:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	47¢	$235	0x944d57…
09-08 14:35:00	Will Podemos (PODEMOS) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x76893b…
09-08 01:18:06	Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?	No	SELL	163	98¢	$159	0xd69561…
08-22 14:39:37	Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?	No	BUY	65	93¢	$60	0xa7f7b8…
08-22 14:15:40	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2,111	95¢	$1,999	0xb059c2…
08-22 14:15:36	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,100	5¢	$109	0xf60940…
08-11 03:15:46	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	2,111	95¢	$2,001	0x69743f…
08-11 03:15:39	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2,100	5¢	$111	0x172207…
08-11 03:09:15	Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x241636…
07-23 14:46:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	3,000	3¢	$96	0xc8bd02…
07-23 13:24:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	1,000	3¢	$33	0xa723e5…
07-23 12:18:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0xfb6890…
07-23 12:17:55	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0x4e5dd6…
07-23 12:12:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	SELL	51	29¢	$15	0x981aef…
07-23 12:09:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x634e53…
07-23 12:07:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	SELL	282	29¢	$82	0xfe3044…
07-23 11:56:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	No	SELL	530	27¢	$143	0x497806…
07-23 11:56:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$13	0x60fed6…
07-23 11:55:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0xa13874…
07-23 11:55:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	SELL	842	31¢	$261	0xe23d88…
07-23 11:54:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	No	SELL	212	27¢	$57	0xaa1adb…
07-23 11:52:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x50430f…
07-23 11:52:10	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	No	SELL	36	28¢	$10	0x61ede6…
07-23 11:51:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0xf12b1b…
07-23 11:46:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	200	28¢	$56	0x6c61d8…
07-23 11:42:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0x901ecb…
07-23 11:41:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0xae3b4b…
07-23 11:41:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	254	27¢	$69	0xeba49d…
07-23 11:41:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xdfecc3…
07-23 11:40:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	339	27¢	$91	0x724d07…
07-23 11:39:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x20fdea…
07-23 11:38:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1,035	15¢	$155	0x366b60…
07-23 11:37:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	Yes	SELL	116	33¢	$38	0x171d75…
07-23 11:36:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	600	27¢	$162	0x9bc9c9…
07-23 11:36:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0xae76d1…
07-23 11:36:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	9	28¢	$2	0xb49827…
07-23 10:50:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	600	25¢	$150	0x9ad190…
07-23 09:50:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	600	26¢	$156	0x3e4630…
07-23 09:46:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	Yes	BUY	300	36¢	$108	0xb756f0…
07-23 09:41:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x54211a…
07-23 09:35:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	12	49¢	$6	0xb33cc1…
07-23 09:33:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	26	34¢	$9	0x7e477b…
07-23 09:32:42	will wti dip to 80 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	584	21¢	$123	0xae1e0c…
07-23 09:32:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x16119c…
07-23 09:30:00	will wti dip to 80 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	17	21¢	$4	0xb6dbdf…
07-23 09:21:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	SELL	704	38¢	$268	0xee1918…
07-23 09:20:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$37	0xd5124a…
07-23 09:18:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	Yes	BUY	49	38¢	$19	0xa935ce…
07-23 09:18:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	Yes	BUY	151	38¢	$57	0xbd6bd7…
07-23 09:17:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	SELL	96	38¢	$36	0x3348d1…
07-23 09:09:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	276	26¢	$72	0xa0dd4d…
07-23 09:09:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	389	26¢	$101	0xd23e95…
07-23 08:55:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0x9ab791…
07-23 08:51:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	400	40¢	$160	0xfae8d4…
07-23 08:49:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	157	50¢	$79	0x7ff421…
07-23 08:47:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xaee42e…
07-23 08:47:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	SELL	400	40¢	$160	0xdf727a…
07-23 08:44:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	300	40¢	$120	0xf93933…
07-23 08:08:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4a644a…