Pastel-Distributor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

89.9%

Resolved

Trades

764

lifetime

Volume

$6.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-08

last 06-24 20:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 71% +$18

Politics

3% 33% $-2

Other

0% 100% +$1

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 124 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+2	$1	34¢	$1	$-0	06-24 20:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1776176400	2	$629	331	330	+1	open	—	04-14 14:24
btc updown 5m 1776028500	3	$371	196	195	+1	open	—	04-12 21:19
btc updown 5m 1776177000	2	$311	345	0	+345	open	—	04-14 14:32
btc updown 5m 1776108600	3	$210	228	0	+228	open	—	04-13 19:32
btc updown 5m 1776030300	3	$207	107	107	+0	open	—	04-12 21:49
btc updown 5m 1776031500	3	$205	217	0	+217	open	—	04-12 22:06
btc updown 5m 1775998800	5	$174	95	94	+1	open	—	04-12 13:04
btc updown 5m 1776032100	7	$172	193	0	+193	open	—	04-12 22:18
btc updown 5m 1776542400	3	$168	169	0	+169	open	—	04-18 20:04
btc updown 5m 1776538500	1	$167	168	0	+168	open	—	04-18 18:59
btc updown 5m 1776027900	7	$161	179	0	+179	open	—	04-12 21:09
btc updown 5m 1776106800	7	$156	172	2	+169	open	—	04-13 19:04
btc updown 5m 1776029400	7	$142	174	0	+174	open	—	04-12 21:34
btc updown 5m 1776105000	7	$133	139	0	+139	open	—	04-13 18:33
btc updown 5m 1776026700	5	$131	144	0	+144	open	—	04-12 20:47
btc updown 5m 1775999700	3	$115	66	65	+1	open	—	04-12 13:19
btc updown 5m 1775934300	2	$113	61	60	+1	open	—	04-11 19:10
btc updown 5m 1776111900	4	$112	116	0	+116	open	—	04-13 20:29
btc updown 5m 1776109200	3	$111	115	0	+115	open	—	04-13 19:43
btc updown 5m 1776106500	5	$111	117	0	+117	open	—	04-13 18:59
btc updown 5m 1776109500	2	$110	133	0	+133	open	—	04-13 19:46
btc updown 5m 1776024900	5	$76	52	50	+2	open	—	04-12 20:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	7	$72	39	39	+0	open	—	04-22 07:30
btc updown 5m 1775945400	3	$64	65	0	+65	open	—	04-11 22:14
btc updown 5m 1775944800	3	$63	66	0	+66	open	—	04-11 22:04
btc updown 5m 1775942100	3	$62	64	0	+64	open	—	04-11 21:19
btc updown 5m 1776111000	2	$60	61	0	+61	open	—	04-13 20:14
btc updown 5m 1775941200	2	$59	63	0	+63	open	—	04-11 21:04
btc updown 5m 1775981400	3	$58	78	0	+78	open	—	04-12 08:14
btc updown 5m 1775907300	3	$57	61	0	+61	open	—	04-11 11:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 20:45:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x46cea8…
06-20 18:53:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xeebd82…
06-18 12:21:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x95dd79…
06-12 14:49:15	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x650733…
06-04 18:11:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x3f48c0…
05-22 09:05:59	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xf0d861…
05-21 07:55:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x5d5080…
05-21 07:55:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x07ef88…
05-21 07:54:53	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xee38fa…
05-16 22:08:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x0669aa…
05-15 14:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x550fcb…
05-15 14:13:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	9	8¢	$1	0x263ba8…
05-15 14:11:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x551085…
05-15 13:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x5e23d7…
05-15 13:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x5ea322…
05-15 13:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x7f6b21…
05-15 13:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x146da2…
05-15 13:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0x7ac450…
05-15 13:16:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x68b47a…
05-15 10:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xf1dfc9…
05-14 20:18:41	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x7717e1…
05-14 20:17:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x264487…
05-14 20:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd132bd…
05-14 20:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x1768a0…
05-14 19:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x3de226…
05-14 19:52:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	9	20¢	$2	0xd37509…
05-14 19:51:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x33da9e…
05-14 19:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xa971d6…
05-14 19:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x3bd15b…
05-14 19:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x210880…
05-14 19:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x3f2212…
05-14 19:40:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x3f6fc9…
05-14 19:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xe79ef9…
05-14 19:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf8caed…
05-14 19:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x5779cc…
05-14 07:07:41	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x5106c2…
05-14 07:07:38	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x9edd01…
05-13 22:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	7	92¢	$7	0xde2168…
05-13 22:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x51d57e…
05-13 22:46:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	3	89¢	$2	0x90d30f…
05-13 22:46:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x7f6b03…
05-13 22:45:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xf79bcd…
05-13 21:14:09	Will Trump say "Dynasty" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x4277f7…
05-13 21:13:57	Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x24f37b…
05-13 20:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xd5fff4…
05-13 20:56:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x5e91fb…
05-13 20:54:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xd9591e…
05-13 20:53:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xe1fb38…
05-13 20:37:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe1e84f…
05-13 20:35:39	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x177283…
05-13 20:35:34	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x5c94d8…
05-13 20:34:59	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xa0d802…
05-13 20:34:20	Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x3677ff…
05-13 20:34:08	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x86ff5c…
05-13 20:34:01	Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x4bcc9d…
05-13 20:33:54	Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x182b12…
05-13 20:33:35	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x643565…
05-13 20:33:22	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xa2ddd1…
05-13 10:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xfa97d0…
05-13 10:49:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x1bb6f9…
05-12 21:59:45	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x6db73e…
05-11 21:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xc03594…
05-11 21:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0e1179…
05-11 21:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	18	97¢	$17	0xa22138…
05-11 21:27:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xcba35b…
05-11 21:27:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xe3a130…
05-11 21:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0xcd1064…
05-11 21:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x238edd…
05-11 21:23:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	14¢	$0	0x92ee3d…
05-11 21:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x66c4cc…
05-11 21:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x50111e…
05-11 21:18:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xfe7fa5…
05-11 21:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xdaadeb…
05-11 21:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xb8bcb8…
05-11 21:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x41a62c…
05-11 21:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x5cf3aa…
05-11 21:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	16	86¢	$14	0x748a32…
05-11 21:11:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x5d1c9a…
05-11 21:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x344241…
05-11 21:06:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x23175a…
05-11 21:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x00106f…
05-11 21:04:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xd6c140…
05-11 21:01:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x00e8b0…
05-11 21:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xdfcba1…
05-11 20:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0x9cf33d…
05-11 20:55:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc5f74e…
05-11 20:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x77f3b6…
05-11 20:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x181a6e…
05-11 20:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xbd550a…
05-11 20:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	11¢	$0	0x13fb5f…
05-11 20:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x240606…
05-11 20:41:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0xdfeced…
05-11 20:40:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x3ac69c…
05-11 20:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x4f8293…
05-11 20:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x9aa87e…
05-11 20:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xae0f57…
05-11 20:37:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x144383…
05-11 20:31:28	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0x17ff40…
05-11 00:14:12	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xbe2c03…
05-11 00:13:34	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0xa7d36a…