Hairy-Antique — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$386

Unrealized P&L

-$74

Hit rate

82.5%

Resolved

132

Trades

306

lifetime

Volume

$21.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$71

Open exposure

$598

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-28 18:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Other

61% 73% -$388

Politics

23% 79% -$195

Tech

10% 100% +$82

Sports

5% 89% +$111

Crypto

0% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	-231	-$210	96¢	$-221	-$11	05-12 02:35
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-184	-$151	97¢	$-178	-$27	05-01 06:23
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+215	$149	55¢	$120	-$30	10-28 18:01
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-203	-$74	39¢	$-79	-$6	05-20 01:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	13	$1.3K	862	862	+0	Yes	+$17	07-31 07:07
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	5	$1.3K	960	417	+544	Yes	+$30	09-21 05:43
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?	4	$991	675	675	+0	Yes	+$233	05-20 01:11
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	2	$805	405	405	+0	No	+$5	10-09 15:21
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	6	$713	772	210	+562	No	-$387	05-30 03:15
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	2	$600	350	350	+0	Yes	+$40	06-24 01:39
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	18	$509	547	547	+0	Yes	+$1	04-05 03:53
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?	1	$450	560	0	+560	No	-$450	07-30 10:52
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	2	$450	466	0	+466	Yes	+$16	07-21 17:01
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	13	$423	499	499	+0	No	-$167	03-30 10:38
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	3	$404	206	206	+0	No	+$4	08-27 09:19
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	1	$400	403	0	+403	Yes	+$3	10-09 15:22
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	10	$400	5,081	5,081	+0	No	-$310	08-27 01:18
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	2	$398	206	206	+0	Yes	-$2	08-27 09:38
will the dhs shutdown end after march 31 2026	3	$392	332	332	+0	Yes	+$252	03-28 05:01
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$382	792	792	+0	open	—	07-07 04:09
Fed rate hike in 2026?	6	$372	396	396	+0	Yes	+$2	07-03 07:08
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	4	$362	266	133	+133	Yes	+$35	05-26 07:03
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	3	$346	183	183	+0	Yes	+$6	08-29 15:57
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	2	$335	185	185	+0	Yes	+$35	07-01 02:23
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	3	$308	158	158	+0	Yes	+$8	03-27 07:34
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in China?	1	$300	302	0	+302	Yes	+$2	08-27 09:56
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	1	$299	0	300	-300	No	-$1	06-23 06:55
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	3	$299	295	66	+230	Yes	+$48	03-23 04:10
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 13?	1	$290	297	0	+297	No	+$7	10-13 02:13
will bitget resume withdrawals by september 30 2026	1	$280	287	0	+287	Yes	+$7	09-26 15:28
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	2	$211	276	61	+215	open	—	10-28 18:01
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	1	$210	0	231	-231	open	—	05-12 02:35
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 25?	1	$200	202	0	+202	Yes	+$2	10-25 07:02
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	1	$200	228	0	+228	Yes	+$28	06-25 15:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 18:01:40	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	61	51¢	$31	0xbcd147…
10-25 07:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x89e2c7…
10-22 15:14:18	Will Everton FC win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xb08382…
10-13 02:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 13?	No	BUY	297	98¢	$290	0xd0c02c…
10-09 15:28:18	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x592633…
10-09 15:22:16	Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	403	99¢	$400	0xf50851…
10-09 15:21:39	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	SELL	405	100¢	$405	0xd49b72…
10-09 02:11:12	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	405	99¢	$400	0xc54821…
09-30 03:34:14	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	276	65¢	$180	0x6633ee…
09-26 15:28:30	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	287	98¢	$280	0x983c6d…
09-23 08:30:52	Ren Zhengfei public appearance by October 31?	Yes	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x0fae84…
09-21 05:43:42	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x251432…
09-19 09:51:13	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	328	91¢	$300	0x7ab226…
09-19 09:04:54	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x66ec8b…
09-19 03:19:51	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	SELL	417	93¢	$386	0xe5770c…
09-18 06:10:36	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	417	96¢	$400	0x0f64c3…
09-18 03:46:22	Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-20?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x0fe017…
09-16 15:38:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	44	11¢	$5	0x19ed42…
09-16 07:57:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0x89a55b…
09-16 07:31:58	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 16?	No	BUY	154	99¢	$152	0x507666…
09-16 03:28:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xbd2da9…
09-15 16:10:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	57	14¢	$8	0x548f42…
09-15 13:09:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	25	87¢	$22	0x1700de…
09-15 08:01:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	177	96¢	$170	0x64e32b…
09-13 16:18:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x8a4756…
09-11 16:01:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	29	80¢	$23	0x75fa0e…
09-11 01:50:25	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 11?	No	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0x06f047…
09-10 15:05:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	29	63¢	$18	0x242122…
09-10 13:03:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x8909c3…
09-10 03:54:27	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 26°C or higher on September 10?	Yes	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0xbb55ad…
09-09 03:16:24	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-09-12?	No	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0xee1875…
09-08 18:01:49	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-08?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x6ef120…
09-08 03:30:46	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on September 8?	No	BUY	159	94¢	$150	0x737488…
09-07 03:13:45	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 7?	No	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x1568fa…
09-06 06:55:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7780f8…
09-05 01:51:06	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on September 5?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x220f5e…
09-03 14:54:58	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-05?	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x999ee6…
09-03 14:51:30	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-05?	No	BUY	63	95¢	$60	0xbdf36f…
09-03 08:56:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 3?	No	BUY	107	94¢	$100	0x5ca0b4…
09-02 07:44:30	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xbfe848…
09-02 06:47:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 2?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0xf6fbf4…
08-29 15:57:19	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	183	96¢	$176	0xde1872…
08-28 03:41:39	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-08-29?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x31d7b4…
08-27 10:58:07	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-08-29?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0xbe9334…
08-27 09:56:03	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in China?	Yes	BUY	302	99¢	$300	0x0bf699…
08-27 09:38:48	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	93¢	$70	0x378013…
08-27 09:38:10	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	SELL	206	96¢	$198	0x7d2765…
08-27 09:19:58	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x657880…
08-27 09:19:15	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	206	99¢	$204	0x4ab400…
08-27 07:22:16	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x9f5952…
08-27 01:18:37	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	4,690	0¢	$5	0x4f04d1…
08-26 11:10:04	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 27?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x298eb6…
08-12 06:45:03	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,031	2¢	$25	0x1fd270…
08-11 10:26:24	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	939	4¢	$35	0xcddce8…
08-11 03:38:15	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xe281e7…
08-07 13:31:12	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	62	97¢	$60	0x7eaac2…
08-07 12:35:13	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x14bd53…
08-05 05:21:30	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,360	10¢	$130	0x5ab004…
08-04 15:57:18	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x9629a2…
08-04 14:12:00	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	305	11¢	$35	0xb57032…
08-04 06:48:51	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xc1414b…
08-04 06:42:18	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	No	SELL	64	41¢	$26	0xce053b…
08-04 02:30:14	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	391	10¢	$40	0x61ffb1…
08-03 11:00:56	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	356	8¢	$30	0x59a8fc…
08-03 11:00:12	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x669717…
08-02 06:04:36	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x59bee9…
08-02 06:03:38	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	311	6¢	$20	0x90e898…
08-01 07:07:11	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	No	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x60dc44…
08-01 06:52:51	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	No	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xa19a62…
08-01 03:13:32	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	326	9¢	$30	0x124a2c…
07-31 16:18:17	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	455	11¢	$50	0x632d55…
07-31 07:07:14	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	65	80¢	$52	0x3e1d5b…
07-31 01:13:29	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	22	75¢	$16	0x8cbed8…
07-31 01:08:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	775	77¢	$598	0x157d29…
07-30 13:34:02	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x1c7ed9…
07-30 10:52:54	Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?	Yes	BUY	560	80¢	$450	0xc22476…
07-29 16:16:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xe56e67…
07-29 16:05:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	60	27¢	$16	0x0d0400…
07-29 02:10:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0xa298e4…
07-21 17:01:34	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	157	95¢	$150	0x72ca20…
07-21 10:40:45	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	308	97¢	$300	0xa10af7…
07-18 03:41:49	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0x8078b8…
07-17 14:38:03	Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x6050b4…
07-17 14:28:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	127	63¢	$80	0x9fa13e…
07-17 14:28:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	127	63¢	$80	0x84c54c…
07-16 15:54:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0xcba9df…
07-16 01:36:38	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	61	65¢	$39	0x9f87a7…
07-15 04:15:17	Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0xe95530…
07-15 04:13:55	Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x8e3f31…
07-15 04:13:37	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	61	66¢	$40	0xbc935f…
07-15 04:10:28	Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	156	96¢	$150	0xafc5e7…
07-11 12:06:58	Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0x612490…
07-08 16:35:29	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	51	97¢	$49	0xda9535…
07-08 15:47:35	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	155	97¢	$150	0x785ea2…
07-08 14:09:05	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xb1828e…
07-08 08:48:23	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	153	98¢	$150	0x5ab283…
07-07 14:52:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x9efb9c…
07-07 04:09:16	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	372	26¢	$96	0xa69f43…
07-06 08:15:31	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 spread away 1pt5	United States	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x49030f…
07-06 03:20:05	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xe49dff…