Unrealistic-Dugout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$48

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

18.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$646

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 06-07 10:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

38% — —

Other

33% 100% +$32

Crypto

28% 17% $-80

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No		-14	$-11	82¢	$-12	$-0	06-07 10:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$127	374	0	+374	open	—	01-09 10:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$50	294	0	+294	open	—	01-09 09:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	2	$50	105	0	+105	Down	$-21	05-06 05:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	1	$41	96	0	+96	Down	$-41	05-06 05:06
lol blg al 2026 04 19	1	$25	30	0	+30	open	—	04-19 12:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	05-06 06:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	1	$21	54	0	+54	open	—	04-03 00:20
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	1	$20	1,315	0	+1,315	open	—	01-21 06:55
will bitcoin reach 106k january 19 25	1	$20	2,157	0	+2,157	open	—	01-21 07:01
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 20–30 years in prison?	1	$20	892	0	+892	open	—	01-21 07:05
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	05-07 19:29
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	1	$11	0	14	-14	open	—	06-07 10:55
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	1	$10	34	0	+34	open	—	03-24 14:23
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	1	$10	258	0	+258	open	—	05-13 16:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	1	$10	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-29 10:14
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Xinxin Yao	1	$10	41	0	+41	Xinxin Yao	+$31	05-08 04:58
will gta 6 cost 100	1	$10	3,333	0	+3,333	open	—	02-27 07:10
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	1	$10	32	0	+32	open	—	05-13 16:10
Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$10	11	0	+11	Yes	+$1	05-05 09:39
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	04-23 14:24
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	1	$10	77	0	+77	open	—	04-12 17:18
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in May?	1	$10	56	0	+56	open	—	05-07 19:34
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-07 19:29
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt0 and 5pt5	1	$10	123	0	+123	open	—	02-27 07:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	1	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	05-05 08:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	Down	$-10	05-06 06:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	04-29 10:08
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	02-27 07:00
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	05-13 16:05
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	02-11 06:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 10:55:51	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	14	80¢	$11	0xaf4667…
05-13 16:10:14	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xc84d3a…
05-13 16:07:19	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xfc2f2b…
05-13 16:07:15	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x83677f…
05-13 16:06:53	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	BUY	258	4¢	$10	0xfa66ee…
05-13 16:05:58	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x0b4306…
05-08 04:58:08	Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Xinxin Yao	Xinxin Yao	BUY	41	25¢	$10	0x08c2d1…
05-08 04:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x72c1d5…
05-07 19:37:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x236b8e…
05-07 19:34:43	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in May?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xee18b6…
05-07 19:29:33	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x4eafe9…
05-07 19:29:19	Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	Yes	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x7d84fb…
05-07 19:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xad48cf…
05-06 06:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xf629ee…
05-06 06:04:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x3c0146…
05-06 05:06:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	96	43¢	$41	0x132526…
05-06 05:04:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0x3343da…
05-06 05:02:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	77	33¢	$25	0x164e89…
05-05 09:39:16	Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x450833…
05-05 08:10:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x6549c4…
04-30 07:27:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x0504de…
04-29 10:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x9baebc…
04-29 10:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xb52f03…
04-29 10:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x794bfe…
04-23 14:24:54	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xe4fac5…
04-19 12:40:04	lol blg al 2026 04 19	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	30	81¢	$25	0x3f5489…
04-19 12:39:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xbc6335…
04-12 17:18:07	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x140ff8…
04-03 00:20:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	54	39¢	$21	0x1cd690…
03-24 14:23:29	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	BUY	34	31¢	$10	0x223fac…
02-27 07:12:07	will trump say crypto or bitcoin this week march 1	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xae09a0…
02-27 07:10:39	will gta 6 cost 100	Yes	BUY	3,333	0¢	$10	0x05eb64…
02-27 07:05:27	will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt0 and 5pt5	Yes	BUY	123	8¢	$10	0xc1e5d4…
02-27 07:00:48	US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x411c46…
02-11 06:29:27	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xe2bd4c…
01-21 07:05:02	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 20–30 years in prison?	Yes	BUY	892	2¢	$20	0xd6e5b5…
01-21 07:01:32	will bitcoin reach 106k january 19 25	Yes	BUY	2,157	1¢	$20	0xcbbfde…
01-21 06:56:06	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x404f37…
01-21 06:55:34	Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	1,315	2¢	$20	0xe399b2…
01-09 10:46:50	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	Yes	BUY	232	33¢	$77	0xb809a3…
01-09 09:40:34	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	Yes	BUY	143	35¢	$50	0x6ce41b…
01-09 09:40:24	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0x6768e7…