Realized P&L
+$515
Unrealized P&L
+$116
Hit rate
91.3%
Resolved
105
Trades
396
lifetime
Volume
$14.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$37
Open exposure
$1.68K
14 positions
First seen
2026-03-12
last 10-28 18:43
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 51 days
Categories
Other
89% 87% +$632
Politics
10% 75% -$135
Sports
1% 100% +$19
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
30 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No +532 $490 94¢ $498 +$8 10-28 12:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +240 $140 88¢ $212 +$72 10-17 07:31
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No +209 $180 92¢ $191 +$11 10-02 11:23
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +180 $155 94¢ $169 +$14 06-19 21:16
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes +181 $145 74¢ $133 -$12 10-17 14:12
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? No +101 $100 100¢ $101 +$1 10-09 18:49
foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775 No +110 $79 89¢ $98 +$19 09-22 16:31
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No +70 $60 97¢ $68 +$8 06-30 22:04
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +61 $50 94¢ $58 +$8 07-16 21:30
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -43 -$25 94¢ $-41 -$15 09-20 15:38
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? No +37 $35 97¢ $36 +$1 08-26 20:48
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +35 $30 80¢ $28 -$2 09-22 16:33
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No +24 $22 98¢ $23 +$1 05-04 15:30
Trump out as President before 2027? No +22 $20 96¢ $21 +$1 06-21 09:07