Realized P&L
-$13.4K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.74K
Hit rate
74.0%
Resolved
209
Trades
2,179
lifetime
Volume
$791.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$363
Open exposure
$58.9K
20 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 20:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 93 days
Categories
Politics
68% 81% -$13,161
Other
32% 85% +$529
Pop-Culture
0% 50% -$779
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
44 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -23,080 -$21,192 94¢ $-21810 -$618 10-06 11:08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +16,100 $12,899 82¢ $13.2K +$303 10-25 03:02
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +12,400 $11,305 98¢ $12.1K +$785 10-27 20:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +4,950 $4,179 94¢ $4.7K +$499 10-27 16:05
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No +1,472 $977 96¢ $1.4K +$428 10-27 16:20
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No -1,000 -$944 97¢ $-973 -$29 07-17 11:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? Yes +700 $680 100¢ $700 +$20 10-26 17:50
Iran leadership change by October 31? No +500 $489 99¢ $496 +$8 10-10 17:09
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +600 $427 79¢ $475 +$49 10-05 01:35
kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418 No +500 $395 90¢ $452 +$58 10-18 02:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +392 $255 100¢ $392 +$137 10-17 18:02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +400 $340 86¢ $342 +$2 09-22 23:42
Plague pandemic in 2026? No +338 $287 98¢ $331 +$44 10-18 05:40
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +326 $290 96¢ $313 +$23 06-08 23:45
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? No +300 $288 99¢ $298 +$10 10-13 18:02
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +300 $282 96¢ $289 +$7 06-08 23:44
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +250 $237 98¢ $246 +$9 06-01 18:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +200 $186 99¢ $198 +$12 09-01 17:36
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No -104 -$102 99¢ $-103 -$1 09-19 11:38
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +100 $97 93¢ $93 -$4 10-09 22:53