Natural-Oak — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$700

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

55.1%

Resolved

2,526

Trades

3,560

lifetime

Volume

$19.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-30

last 05-20 06:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Crypto

82% 60% -$75

Other

17% 37% -$633

Sports

1% 69% +$8

Politics

0% — —

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-20).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No		+6	$5	82¢	$5	+$0	05-13 08:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 14?	27	$118	195	159	+36	No	-$4	05-14 09:58
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 15?	12	$82	55	53	+1	No	+$12	05-15 15:24
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 14?	9	$68	2,235	0	+2,235	No	-$68	05-13 20:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	11	$68	250	36	+214	Down	+$30	05-13 16:58
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 16?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	$0	05-14 12:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	10	$56	494	7	+487	Down	+$13	05-13 18:34
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 15?	8	$54	48	39	+8	Yes	+$13	05-15 15:24
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14?	14	$54	1,660	0	+1,660	No	-$54	05-14 00:37
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 15?	8	$51	41	23	+18	No	+$3	05-13 18:46
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 14?	6	$49	35	33	+2	Yes	-$4	05-13 21:26
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 15?	5	$47	25	25	+0	No	+$1	05-14 09:59
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15?	6	$47	26	26	+0	No	+$5	05-15 15:24
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C or higher on May 15?	6	$47	26	26	+0	Yes	-$1	05-14 12:33
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 14?	4	$45	28	28	+0	No	-$1	05-14 12:33
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 14?	11	$45	122	65	+56	No	-$8	05-13 18:34
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 15?	10	$44	52	19	+33	No	-$6	05-15 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2PM ET	9	$43	74	0	+74	Up	-$1	05-13 18:46
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 15?	5	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$2	05-15 15:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	8	$39	60	24	+36	Down	+$16	05-13 17:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	6	$38	29	15	+14	Up	+$3	05-13 17:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	8	$38	50	5	+45	Up	-$30	05-13 17:49
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on May 14?	4	$37	26	26	+0	Yes	+$15	05-14 09:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	9	$37	51	17	+35	Up	-$1	05-13 18:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	8	$34	70	0	+70	Up	-$34	05-13 17:49
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on May 15?	6	$33	44	26	+18	Yes	-$10	05-13 19:52
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 15?	6	$33	25	17	+7	No	+$0	05-15 15:42
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15?	12	$32	85	13	+72	No	-$24	05-14 01:09
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 15?	4	$32	17	17	+0	No	+$0	05-14 09:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	6	$29	42	16	+26	Up	+$14	05-13 17:34
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 15?	10	$27	58	21	+38	No	-$3	05-14 17:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 06:35:21	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	63¢	$5	0xf23c5d…
05-20 06:30:24	XRP Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x404764…
05-20 06:30:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	73¢	$5	0xa620a9…
05-20 06:30:22	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x98ab5f…
05-20 06:30:20	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	66¢	$4	0x467e78…
05-19 23:16:22	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0xffc183…
05-19 23:10:27	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x6ab79d…
05-19 22:36:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x3a419f…
05-19 22:30:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xb30a5f…
05-19 22:30:24	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x1876aa…
05-19 22:10:24	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	75¢	$5	0x020fad…
05-19 20:20:23	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x232fac…
05-19 20:15:22	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x50d6eb…
05-19 20:11:20	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x033600…
05-19 20:10:22	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x2e33fd…
05-19 20:05:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xee68cf…
05-19 19:51:21	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xcf4817…
05-19 19:50:24	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x9d31c4…
05-19 19:50:22	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x0f4c92…
05-19 19:40:25	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	72¢	$5	0xe52ac4…
05-19 19:40:25	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xc5c4b6…
05-19 19:36:20	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x64c6d7…
05-19 19:26:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xe16d55…
05-19 19:25:20	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x48864c…
05-19 19:20:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x312df5…
05-19 19:15:22	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x815f66…
05-19 19:06:26	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	32¢	$4	0xd8dfd6…
05-19 19:06:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	9	40¢	$4	0x2c8fb4…
05-19 19:06:21	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x01d5bf…
05-19 19:05:27	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x1ae779…
05-19 19:05:22	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x688a58…
05-19 19:01:29	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0x872676…
05-19 19:01:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0x0c5d72…
05-19 18:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	23	17¢	$4	0xf1f693…
05-19 18:41:21	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xd34a57…
05-19 18:40:24	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x631d06…
05-19 18:36:20	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9	38¢	$4	0xfd2eb2…
05-19 18:31:26	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0xf02580…
05-19 18:31:25	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x2548c9…
05-19 18:31:23	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	31¢	$3	0x133913…
05-19 18:25:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x64e6f2…
05-19 18:25:22	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0x42bddf…
05-19 18:16:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xad3173…
05-19 18:15:20	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x56d2ee…
05-19 18:06:21	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x22ae30…
05-19 18:05:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$4	0x47413f…
05-19 18:00:24	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x695c11…
05-19 17:50:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x48f3cd…
05-19 17:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb47b74…
05-19 17:40:27	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	39¢	$4	0x8888cb…
05-19 17:40:27	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x68aad3…
05-19 17:21:21	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x262e32…
05-19 17:21:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x8ac5bb…
05-19 17:15:22	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xe7de64…
05-19 17:05:22	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xd6e2df…
05-19 17:05:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x673c79…
05-19 17:01:19	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xaf82a1…
05-19 16:55:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x66d538…
05-19 16:46:21	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x0ae6f1…
05-19 16:41:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$4	0xce9d72…
05-19 16:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	38¢	$3	0x3fb295…
05-19 16:36:21	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x6f94a3…
05-19 16:31:22	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x15a080…
05-19 16:31:20	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xc14317…
05-19 16:15:31	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x0f64e1…
05-19 16:15:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xed036e…
05-19 16:15:26	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xdd5997…
05-19 16:06:22	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	32¢	$4	0x9304cd…
05-19 15:55:54	Ethereum Up or Down on May 19?	Down	BUY	24	17¢	$4	0x77e225…
05-19 15:55:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x68e7f1…
05-19 15:40:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x88b84b…
05-19 15:40:21	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x86f625…
05-19 15:40:21	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x03178b…
05-19 15:35:22	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xf5cec0…
05-19 15:35:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x2d48f3…
05-19 15:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x2cdfb1…
05-19 15:35:22	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x13db45…
05-19 15:26:21	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xc62090…
05-19 15:20:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xe90486…
05-19 15:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xe93876…
05-19 15:20:26	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x1e898e…
05-19 15:20:22	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x930cbe…
05-19 15:16:28	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	40¢	$4	0x8d9357…
05-19 15:15:26	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x85518a…
05-19 15:15:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x6d25e9…
05-19 15:15:25	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x6102d2…
05-19 15:15:25	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x02d6f2…
05-19 15:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x76c91a…
05-19 15:15:21	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x5868d8…
05-19 15:11:20	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x309b50…
05-19 15:01:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x3d6e6b…
05-19 15:00:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xcc649c…
05-19 15:00:27	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xcd6c02…
05-19 15:00:27	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x39373c…
05-19 15:00:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xd9e83d…
05-19 14:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	32¢	$4	0xf3ee53…
05-19 14:46:25	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x6752c6…
05-19 14:46:20	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x29f43a…
05-19 14:36:21	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x9440bf…
05-19 14:30:23	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x10c029…