Spotted-Fig — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.69K

Unrealized P&L

+$938

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

Trades

406

lifetime

Volume

$49.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$122

Open exposure

$7.12K

7 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 10-27 19:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Politics

50% 100% +$5,000

Other

33% 90% +$1,573

Tech

11% 100% +$181

Sports

5% 67% -$59

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+4,000	$3,007	86¢	$3.5K	+$453	10-21 22:15
NATO article 5 before 2027?	No	+1,500	$1,185	96¢	$1.4K	+$255	09-09 07:51
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	+1,200	$1,042	96¢	$1.2K	+$113	05-09 23:45
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	+800	$674	86¢	$684	+$10	10-23 23:56
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	-165	-$246	97¢	$-160	+$86	08-24 16:35
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	No	+132	$117	92¢	$121	+$4	10-23 23:53
Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$80	97¢	$97	+$16	10-04 21:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
NATO article 5 before 2027?	11	$4.0K	3,000	1,500	+1,500	open	—	09-09 07:51
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	33	$3.9K	7,835	0	+7,835	Yes	+$3,928	03-08 18:00
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	17	$3.0K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	10-21 22:15
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	16	$2.7K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$275	08-23 20:15
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	10	$2.7K	1,350	1,515	-165	open	—	08-24 16:35
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?	11	$2.6K	2,800	0	+2,800	Yes	+$228	09-07 15:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	5	$2.3K	2,730	0	+2,730	No	+$429	04-21 03:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	5	$2.1K	2,500	0	+2,500	No	+$380	06-11 12:22
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	40	$1.6K	2,340	0	+2,340	open	—	10-26 22:02
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	9	$1.3K	747	747	+0	open	—	09-11 03:47
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$1.2K	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$300	05-01 14:04
Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	20	$1.2K	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$306	10-10 18:54
Will Les Républicains have the most seats after the French Senate Election?	3	$1.1K	1,114	114	+1,000	Yes	+$92	09-04 17:23
Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	15	$1.1K	586	586	+0	open	—	09-01 19:55
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	2	$1.0K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	05-09 23:45
Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	31	$1.0K	520	520	+0	open	—	10-25 13:33
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	11	$1.0K	596	596	+0	open	—	10-25 16:16
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	7	$1.0K	1,203	0	+1,203	No	+$181	07-22 19:57
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	3	$1.0K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	10-25 16:57
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	1	$1000	1,231	0	+1,231	open	—	10-27 19:01
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?	2	$940	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$60	07-07 20:50
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	12	$939	1,357	0	+1,357	open	—	10-18 10:06
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	6	$899	624	533	+90	Yes	+$55	05-03 15:27
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	13	$898	600	600	+0	open	—	10-26 11:49
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	8	$855	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$145	08-18 17:52
Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	7	$808	892	0	+892	No	+$83	08-27 14:53
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	7	$749	800	0	+800	No	+$51	07-23 11:50
Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	6	$687	455	290	+165	open	—	10-14 07:51
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	2	$674	800	0	+800	open	—	10-23 23:56
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	12	$646	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	10-22 00:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 19:01:12	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,231	81¢	$1,000	0xbc9db2…
10-26 22:02:15	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x9b2f24…
10-26 17:57:53	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	14	75¢	$10	0xc02f4a…
10-26 11:49:36	Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	298	76¢	$227	0x45c16e…
10-25 16:57:44	Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	400	89¢	$355	0x36dc42…
10-25 16:21:32	Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	107	75¢	$80	0x6de264…
10-25 16:16:02	Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	596	93¢	$553	0x217355…
10-25 13:33:41	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x6e4ee1…
10-25 13:33:39	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	125	100¢	$124	0x64f533…
10-24 10:08:54	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xa0c928…
10-23 23:56:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	BUY	300	83¢	$249	0x061d9f…
10-23 23:53:51	Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	132	88¢	$117	0xfe8600…
10-22 00:10:20	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	25	68¢	$17	0x87671b…
10-21 22:15:30	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	177	80¢	$141	0x6222be…
10-21 17:24:05	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x726117…
10-21 17:24:05	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	47	68¢	$32	0x0a712a…
10-21 16:30:45	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x81d5c4…
10-21 16:13:32	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x717c8c…
10-21 14:11:59	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x4b713f…
10-21 13:47:06	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xfd7f8a…
10-21 13:09:44	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	14	80¢	$11	0x60c0f0…
10-21 11:16:53	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x404189…
10-21 11:16:38	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x049c75…
10-21 11:14:35	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xeee044…
10-21 11:13:50	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xc49221…
10-21 11:13:41	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x148064…
10-21 10:28:42	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	40	68¢	$27	0x632c36…
10-20 19:12:06	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	115	78¢	$90	0x08280d…
10-18 22:33:18	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	338	70¢	$237	0x42f445…
10-18 20:27:57	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$32	0xd62ff4…
10-18 16:43:29	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x303f7d…
10-18 11:50:12	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	162	70¢	$113	0xc4735b…
10-18 10:06:15	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	307	60¢	$184	0xb0cef8…
10-18 09:59:26	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x8ec5d7…
10-18 09:59:14	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x6fda03…
10-18 09:59:14	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0x663a72…
10-18 09:59:12	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	467	65¢	$303	0x1425b8…
10-18 08:14:23	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xa575bd…
10-18 08:14:23	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x8308a7…
10-18 07:44:08	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x4c0d5b…
10-18 07:44:08	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x1a6f1f…
10-18 02:09:06	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	204	65¢	$132	0x69bfee…
10-18 00:05:51	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	27	65¢	$18	0xcaab51…
10-17 23:35:21	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x10f78f…
10-17 22:05:05	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x587940…
10-17 16:40:39	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xf0d9e9…
10-17 16:40:39	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5548d2…
10-17 15:26:08	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xea3693…
10-17 15:26:08	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xc636ac…
10-17 15:26:08	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x966ffa…
10-17 09:37:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xe5a9a9…
10-17 09:37:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x83c49c…
10-16 09:29:07	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x0435c1…
10-15 09:54:59	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	287	70¢	$201	0xcdc0e2…
10-15 05:48:59	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	95	70¢	$66	0x21738b…
10-15 04:20:40	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	95	70¢	$66	0x8dcb82…
10-15 03:57:29	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	23	70¢	$16	0x876730…
10-15 00:39:41	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xbffa68…
10-15 00:39:40	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xde8c06…
10-15 00:39:40	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5ca6f5…
10-15 00:39:40	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x211777…
10-14 20:20:25	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	333	75¢	$249	0xd94771…
10-14 20:19:43	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	66	75¢	$49	0xd9689d…
10-14 20:19:40	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x20d51d…
10-14 20:19:40	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0x1d5636…
10-14 07:51:44	Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	135	91¢	$123	0x99b918…
10-14 07:37:10	Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$27	0x13e87e…
10-13 14:40:16	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x00037c…
10-13 14:40:07	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x51b900…
10-13 14:40:05	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xbc4d29…
10-13 13:40:52	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x4936d5…
10-13 13:40:52	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x132c12…
10-13 13:32:41	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xf32b91…
10-13 13:29:58	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9ff928…
10-13 13:08:55	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x3d3398…
10-13 13:08:55	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3a127a…
10-12 20:43:09	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xa0f5e2…
10-12 20:41:05	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x67beb3…
10-12 19:58:14	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x8ab138…
10-12 19:03:09	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	215	73¢	$157	0x950959…
10-11 17:22:58	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	85	65¢	$55	0xeee260…
10-11 16:25:22	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$143	0x5ddbf7…
10-10 18:54:21	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	54	72¢	$39	0x50beba…
10-09 18:52:50	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	36	72¢	$26	0x3638dc…
10-09 18:02:31	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x5aed94…
10-09 17:51:49	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	500	75¢	$375	0xe4fa95…
10-09 17:20:44	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0xd564cd…
10-09 17:15:01	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x8c003e…
10-09 17:14:17	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	67	70¢	$47	0x359417…
10-09 17:13:32	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x18b935…
10-09 17:11:23	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	25	75¢	$18	0xe8e9e9…
10-09 17:10:37	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x6b3f27…
10-09 16:24:29	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	130	86¢	$112	0xbded47…
10-09 16:08:33	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	32	85¢	$27	0xe0a906…
10-09 12:09:16	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x2a1891…
10-09 12:09:13	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	30	75¢	$23	0x20c856…
10-09 11:39:28	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x9f2425…
10-09 11:23:58	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x3e9e94…
10-09 11:23:51	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xd7a543…
10-09 11:23:39	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	158	87¢	$137	0xd532be…