Alienated-Octagon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$619

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

446

lifetime

Volume

$20.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-23

last 08-19 06:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

72% 100% +$496

Other

13% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

7% 100% +$123

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	16	$2.9K	2,380	1,500	+880	open	—	07-18 12:49
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	12	$1.5K	1,515	1,128	+387	open	—	06-16 12:23
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$1.4K	700	700	+0	open	—	06-03 08:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$1.2K	900	1,000	-100	open	—	06-16 08:09
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	11	$1.1K	569	569	+0	open	—	03-31 12:52
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	4	$565	300	300	+0	open	—	07-05 00:40
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$467	314	314	+0	open	—	04-01 12:24
Trump goes to space in 2026?	10	$443	128	328	-200	open	—	08-02 19:08
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	14	$379	360	360	+0	open	—	04-17 09:33
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	15	$374	201	201	+0	open	—	03-29 20:16
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	24	$331	2,078	1,585	+493	open	—	04-18 22:04
iran leadership change by march 31	9	$314	200	200	+0	open	—	03-13 01:48
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	3	$302	0	315	-315	open	—	07-01 19:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	9	$302	600	400	+200	open	—	05-26 09:58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	7	$292	1,648	1,200	+448	Yes	+$419	04-30 14:27
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	6	$276	155	154	+0	open	—	04-23 01:52
Spurs vs. Thunder	6	$273	542	264	+278	open	—	05-31 02:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	14	$271	897	448	+448	open	—	05-23 21:40
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	5	$256	206	106	+100	open	—	04-14 21:45
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	6	$246	200	200	+0	open	—	07-11 17:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	10	$237	510	0	+510	open	—	06-25 16:51
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$233	197	49	+148	open	—	05-30 13:08
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$232	1,132	132	+1,000	open	—	03-25 02:05
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	5	$231	135	135	+0	open	—	03-13 11:33
us forces enter iran by march 7	4	$230	265	0	+265	open	—	03-05 21:46
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$225	0	1,975	-1,975	open	—	03-09 13:01
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	7	$224	300	150	+150	open	—	04-13 08:01
will the us invade iran by march 31	6	$215	145	100	+45	open	—	03-31 08:35
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$180	200	0	+200	open	—	06-27 07:09
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$176	200	200	+0	open	—	04-14 12:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-19 06:29:06	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xe09bac…
08-06 07:50:56	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	BUY	44	43¢	$19	0xe867a5…
08-06 04:41:00	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742051	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xe557eb…
08-06 00:31:45	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742051	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x2c6bab…
08-05 10:55:56	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	112	62¢	$69	0xe4fb03…
08-05 10:18:00	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	38	62¢	$24	0x299791…
08-05 09:59:33	will bitcoin dip to 56k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x9e2306…
08-05 09:17:21	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x9ed727…
08-02 19:10:24	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	60	58¢	$35	0x3be713…
08-02 19:09:14	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	85	58¢	$50	0x1119cd…
08-02 19:08:51	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	SELL	64	98¢	$63	0x0f62c1…
08-02 19:07:21	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xae58ab…
08-02 19:05:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x936a1b…
08-02 19:04:56	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	SELL	64	98¢	$63	0x568715…
08-02 19:01:35	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0xbb9e77…
08-02 18:58:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xeb70d4…
08-02 18:56:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x6fda6e…
07-23 09:47:19	Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x4ae583…
07-22 09:33:54	Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?	No	BUY	35	83¢	$29	0x371ad1…
07-21 05:08:45	Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xa2a1bd…
07-20 18:34:57	Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x70777d…
07-18 12:49:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x776ea0…
07-17 23:49:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xefa191…
07-17 13:51:03	Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x30f16c…
07-16 22:16:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	300	77¢	$231	0xa86017…
07-16 18:31:50	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	51	95¢	$49	0x5499ed…
07-16 04:16:46	Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?	No	BUY	31	83¢	$25	0xa53feb…
07-13 18:45:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x82edce…
07-13 17:44:23	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0xec9660…
07-13 17:42:19	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x8b9ffc…
07-13 16:07:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$16	0x2b6661…
07-13 14:14:11	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xac510a…
07-13 11:33:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	300	82¢	$246	0x6e6321…
07-13 10:56:26	Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xf87274…
07-12 22:07:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x1adbe2…
07-11 17:49:08	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	147	65¢	$96	0xf17fd0…
07-11 17:38:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x910fbc…
07-11 16:21:44	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	35	65¢	$23	0x8682af…
07-11 14:17:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0xda4ce8…
07-11 14:16:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	4	65¢	$3	0xe09995…
07-11 10:58:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x3d279c…
07-09 23:40:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0x9e4edc…
07-08 08:40:05	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x389020…
07-05 00:40:28	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xf38837…
07-01 19:38:46	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	235	96¢	$226	0x609497…
07-01 08:23:23	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x1cc714…
06-30 15:56:29	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xec40e0…
06-30 15:55:16	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5b78cb…
06-30 15:51:05	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb9ae62…
06-30 15:50:23	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x685e74…
06-30 09:35:01	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x008087…
06-30 09:24:31	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd124c3…
06-30 09:08:59	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xfbfd9f…
06-30 09:06:02	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$12	0x93061d…
06-29 19:41:43	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xc88d58…
06-29 16:57:37	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0xc594eb…
06-29 02:30:19	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0x9a7a34…
06-28 22:37:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x19b7c2…
06-28 22:00:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0xe5f57c…
06-28 21:57:23	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x50d8c6…
06-28 21:56:16	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x0f7d89…
06-28 21:56:02	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x6de6e5…
06-27 07:09:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xe53499…
06-26 23:27:20	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xe23139…
06-26 13:42:27	russia x ukraine diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260609011545512	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x4c7306…
06-26 12:06:26	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x281305…
06-26 11:57:52	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x0c2568…
06-25 16:51:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0xe6aac7…
06-24 12:26:11	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	87	7¢	$6	0xe21647…
06-24 12:26:01	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	98	7¢	$7	0x1ab590…
06-24 12:25:43	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x555e52…
06-22 15:12:58	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x824b7d…
06-22 13:56:55	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x7b75ab…
06-22 12:55:59	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x993749…
06-22 11:19:35	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x847549…
06-21 07:14:17	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	300	94¢	$282	0x82a254…
06-21 05:08:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	662	88¢	$582	0xbf3c16…
06-18 13:11:38	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x24deae…
06-17 17:43:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	48¢	$28	0x62442a…
06-17 16:17:16	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xa29207…
06-17 16:04:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xaa6329…
06-17 14:53:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	48¢	$46	0xe063cb…
06-17 14:37:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0xba9d6c…
06-17 14:36:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$9	0xf69927…
06-17 14:14:44	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0xa0ee32…
06-17 13:30:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	250	87¢	$218	0x93b5a7…
06-17 11:38:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	48¢	$28	0x565745…
06-17 11:21:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0x351c1b…
06-17 09:44:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x52c205…
06-16 14:42:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x26027c…
06-16 12:23:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	667	99¢	$660	0xa20959…
06-16 10:47:16	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x0eb9e0…
06-16 08:30:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0x7db0e7…
06-16 08:09:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	98¢	$296	0x5ae688…
06-15 23:43:43	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xdeceed…
06-15 20:35:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x007dca…
06-15 17:59:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	128	23¢	$29	0x3ed920…
06-15 16:22:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	97	95¢	$93	0x51374c…
06-15 16:21:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x6f9505…
06-15 16:21:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xbdcaee…