Will Israel Adesanya be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$905
$181 in 24h
Trades
36
Unique wallets
18
Liquidity
$2,853
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-06
last 05-14 06:04
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+0.9¢
(top1%: 2% YES on $105
vs crowd: 1% YES on $905)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | — | $378 | $378 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $3 | $493 | $491 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 8 | $11 | $20 | $9 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $3 | $103 | $100 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $10 | $171 | $161 |
| Median | 4 | $1 | $46 | $45 |
| Below median | 2 | — | $20 | $20 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 5 | — | $552 | $552 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trivial-Characterization 0x2ff6…7c7b | Yes | +1,229 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-10 00:57 |
| Lonely-Bog 0xe542…0a37 | Yes | +345 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-10 04:54 |
| Pink-Outfit 0x8575…87fe | No | +265 | $264 | $264 | 5 | 05-10 08:13 |
| Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | +236 | $235 | $235 | 6 | 05-10 03:13 |
| Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f | No | +103 | $103 | $103 | 3 | 05-10 08:13 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +86 | $86 | $86 | 2 | 05-10 06:11 |
| Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | +85 | $85 | $85 | 4 | 05-10 03:43 |
| Flimsy-Mining 0xe7ef…edf1 | Yes | +50 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-10 12:11 |
| Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | No | +46 | $46 | $46 | 2 | 05-09 00:23 |
| Scornful-Conductor 0x1e82…af92 | No | +40 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 05-10 03:20 |
| Spirited-Priest 0xc518…2594 | No | +20 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-10 00:40 |
| Feline-Department 0x671a…2f1e | No | +13 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 05-10 03:20 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 06:04:43 | Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | Yes | SELL | 23 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa19937… |
| 05-10 12:11:53 | Flimsy-Mining 0xe7ef…edf1 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x69b35c… |
| 05-10 08:13:41 | Pink-Outfit 0x8575…87fe | No | BUY | 21 | 99¢ | $21 | 0x84f060… |
| 05-10 08:13:41 | Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f | No | BUY | 28 | 99¢ | $28 | 0xcce991… |
| 05-10 06:11:41 | Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | BUY | 6 | 97¢ | $6 | 0xbe56c0… |
| 05-10 04:54:06 | Lonely-Bog 0xe542…0a37 | Yes | BUY | 345 | 1¢ | $3 | 0x9b8650… |
| 05-10 04:46:19 | Wasteful-Monsoon-Farmer 0x3d7d…10fc | Yes | SELL | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x83b5ab… |
| 05-10 04:22:36 | Pink-Outfit 0x8575…87fe | No | BUY | 127 | 100¢ | $127 | 0x705b7d… |
| 05-10 03:43:59 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x914474… |
| 05-10 03:25:12 | Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f | No | BUY | 56 | 100¢ | $56 | 0x98d1a4… |
| 05-10 03:25:12 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | BUY | 20 | 100¢ | $20 | 0x2f1fa5… |
| 05-10 03:20:25 | Feline-Department 0x671a…2f1e | No | BUY | 13 | 100¢ | $13 | 0x70980d… |
| 05-10 03:20:23 | Scornful-Conductor 0x1e82…af92 | No | BUY | 40 | 100¢ | $40 | 0x2951df… |
| 05-10 03:20:23 | Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f | No | BUY | 19 | 100¢ | $19 | 0x701639… |
| 05-10 03:20:23 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | BUY | 30 | 100¢ | $30 | 0xae7697… |
| 05-10 03:20:23 | Pink-Outfit 0x8575…87fe | No | BUY | 33 | 100¢ | $32 | 0x287155… |
| 05-10 03:13:41 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 29 | 100¢ | $29 | 0xfd8cbf… |
| 05-10 01:44:48 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0x4c0972… |
| 05-10 01:44:48 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 38 | 100¢ | $38 | 0xb05480… |
| 05-10 01:07:58 | Pink-Outfit 0x8575…87fe | No | BUY | 52 | 99¢ | $52 | 0x2d1a3b… |
| 05-10 00:57:51 | Trivial-Characterization 0x2ff6…7c7b | Yes | BUY | 1,229 | 1¢ | $10 | 0x3e263e… |
| 05-10 00:53:53 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 83 | 100¢ | $83 | 0xc59073… |
| 05-10 00:40:58 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 46 | 100¢ | $46 | 0x68fdde… |
| 05-10 00:40:58 | Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | BUY | 30 | 100¢ | $30 | 0xbdd4c0… |
| 05-10 00:40:58 | Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | BUY | 80 | 100¢ | $80 | 0x124bf1… |
| 05-10 00:40:56 | Spirited-Priest 0xc518…2594 | No | BUY | 20 | 100¢ | $20 | 0xd4854f… |
| 05-09 03:36:14 | Flippant-Bass 0x5566…7c29 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xac1387… |
| 05-09 03:35:02 | Pink-Outfit 0x8575…87fe | No | BUY | 32 | 100¢ | $32 | 0xad9345… |
| 05-09 03:35:02 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | BUY | 30 | 100¢ | $30 | 0x216255… |
| 05-09 00:23:56 | Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | No | BUY | 16 | 100¢ | $16 | 0x94e6fd… |
| 05-09 00:23:55 | Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | No | BUY | 30 | 100¢ | $30 | 0x9b4651… |
| 05-08 06:20:19 | Elderly-Bug-Degree 0x6534…2e43 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xe3a33d… |
| 05-08 05:44:20 | Elderly-Bug-Degree 0x6534…2e43 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x1b9bc2… |
| 05-08 05:43:45 | Elderly-Bug-Degree 0x6534…2e43 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xc0db7f… |
| 05-08 03:19:35 | Grounded-Twist 0x6cf3…ae71 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x1259b1… |
| 05-06 18:15:38 | Awkward-Patriot 0xe372…eb38 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x93a0a5… |