Realized P&L
+$4
Unrealized P&L
-$5
Hit rate
32.4%
Resolved
2
Trades
38
lifetime
Volume
$374
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$144
14 positions
First seen
2026-04-13
last 06-11 15:38
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 1 day
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Other
68% 0% $-0
Politics
32% 100% +$4
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
14 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes +54 $20 32¢ $17 $-3 06-08 11:53
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +60 $10 24¢ $14 +$4 06-07 13:26
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +36 $10 38¢ $14 +$4 06-06 18:38
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +14 $10 76¢ $11 +$1 06-07 13:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +32 $10 32¢ $10 +$0 06-03 11:34
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +18 $10 56¢ $10 +$0 06-08 11:49
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No +18 $10 56¢ $10 $-0 06-08 11:47
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes +48 $10 20¢ $9 $-1 06-07 13:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $10 44¢ $9 $-1 06-03 11:34
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -50 $-8 18¢ $-9 $-0 06-09 12:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +15 $10 54¢ $8 $-2 06-06 09:53
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No +15 $10 54¢ $8 $-2 06-03 11:33
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Yes +45 $10 16¢ $7 $-3 06-03 11:36
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes +36 $10 19¢ $7 $-3 06-07 17:01