Present-Recess — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.05K

Unrealized P&L

+$18

Hit rate

91.2%

Resolved

545

Trades

1,799

lifetime

Volume

$117.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

$3.49K

19 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 22:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 124 days

Categories

Other

61% 89% +$534

Politics

25% 87% +$156

Crypto

8% 88% +$158

Tech

5% 88% +$146

Sports

2% 88% +$51

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions (19) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	+1,471	$1,321	96¢	$1.4K	+$84	10-26 22:21
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+562	$517	92¢	$514	-$3	10-26 20:20
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	-375	-$349	95¢	$-356	-$7	06-04 16:26
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+326	$250	96¢	$314	+$64	10-26 20:20
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	-315	-$290	96¢	$-301	-$11	06-04 17:03
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+196	$171	86¢	$170	-$1	10-26 22:22
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?	No	+100	$93	95¢	$95	+$2	09-15 16:18
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-93	-$86	98¢	$-91	-$5	10-14 03:11
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	No	-92	-$81	89¢	$-82	-$1	05-23 03:05
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	+62	$41	95¢	$59	+$18	07-12 20:50
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	+50	$44	98¢	$49	+$5	10-13 18:34
Anduril IPO before 2027?	No	+22	$21	98¢	$22	+$1	09-15 16:15
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	+10	$75	100¢	$10	-$65	08-12 20:41
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-10	-$21	96¢	$-10	+$11	09-06 19:46
israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	Yes	+20	$14	37¢	$7	-$6	08-23 00:02
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+35	$29	12¢	$4	-$25	10-20 20:58
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	+62	$32	5¢	$3	-$29	10-26 22:22
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	+62	$19	4¢	$3	-$16	07-12 20:50
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+10	-$3	0¢	$0	+$3	09-05 10:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	25	$4.3K	2,317	2,317	+0	No	+$13	01-10 23:22
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	65	$2.6K	3,019	1,284	+1,735	No	+$79	05-16 22:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	49	$2.4K	3,831	800	+3,031	No	+$36	05-23 18:47
highest temperature in london on january 13 8c	5	$2.3K	1,170	1,170	+0	No	+$2	01-12 05:34
bun ein dor 2026 01 09 draw	4	$2.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	Yes	+$63	01-09 21:28
israel strikes iran by january 9 2026	27	$2.0K	1,155	944	+210	No	+$20	01-08 22:16
moonshot publishes kimi k3 weights by july 27 20260717164254847	8	$1.8K	1,818	0	+1,818	Yes	+$30	07-27 15:22
Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	14	$1.8K	2,228	0	+2,228	Yes	+$125	09-06 19:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	46	$1.7K	2,948	319	+2,629	No	+$3	05-22 22:16
highest temperature in london on january 13 7corbelow	3	$1.7K	1,293	396	+897	No	+$1	01-12 20:05
dota2 xctn ivo 2026 01 04 game2	2	$1.6K	1,632	0	+1,632	Execration	+$2	01-04 10:44
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	10	$1.6K	1,504	126	+1,379	No	+$36	09-17 14:59
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$1.6K	1,559	0	+1,559	No	+$5	04-01 14:27
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	60	$1.5K	1,713	1,518	+195	No	+$33	05-16 21:03
highest temperature in nyc on january 2 34forhigher	2	$1.5K	1,474	0	+1,474	No	+$4	01-02 18:45
highest temperature in seattle on january 1 46 47f	1	$1.5K	1,461	0	+1,461	No	+$3	01-01 22:04
highest temperature in seoul on january 7 4c	4	$1.4K	1,435	435	+1,000	No	-$433	01-06 20:05
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	10	$1.4K	1,408	100	+1,308	Yes	+$105	10-14 03:28
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	7	$1.3K	1,533	0	+1,533	open	—	10-26 22:21
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	19	$1.3K	900	600	+300	Yes	+$55	06-21 00:16
highest temperature in dallas on january 3 68 69f	1	$1.2K	1,250	0	+1,250	No	+$1	01-03 21:18
highest temperature in seoul on january 5 3c	2	$1.2K	1,225	0	+1,225	No	+$1	01-05 07:12
France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?	1	$1.2K	1,179	0	+1,179	No	+$10	10-20 21:01
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	8	$1.1K	1,215	0	+1,215	Yes	+$75	08-28 07:39
trump invokes war powers against venezuela by january 9 737	6	$1.1K	1,021	100	+921	Yes	+$2	01-06 17:19
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 27?	2	$1.1K	1,100	0	+1,100	No	+$7	05-26 22:20
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	44	$1.0K	1,282	1,087	+195	No	-$72	05-16 22:59
will google gemini 3 score at least 50 on the frontiermath benchmark	15	$1.0K	1,214	107	+1,107	No	+$216	01-15 18:47
highest temperature in toronto on january 7 5corhigher	2	$999	500	500	+0	No	+$0	01-10 08:28
highest temperature in london on january 4 4c	6	$990	971	26	+945	No	+$5	01-04 17:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 22:22:53	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	5¢	$4	0x66e828…
10-26 22:22:20	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	196	87¢	$171	0xb1d7cd…
10-26 22:21:33	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	754	96¢	$724	0xb7da54…
10-26 20:20:33	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x3d591d…
10-26 20:20:14	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x07b974…
10-26 20:19:56	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	85	95¢	$81	0xe54706…
10-21 15:52:36	Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	191	10¢	$19	0x205fc6…
10-20 21:01:17	France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	1,179	99¢	$1,170	0x6b8318…
10-20 21:00:12	Will OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	59	99¢	$58	0x77dd96…
10-20 20:59:09	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x34ec28…
10-20 20:58:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	83¢	$29	0xec098f…
10-20 20:58:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x98c5fe…
10-20 20:57:15	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	BUY	65	81¢	$53	0x767709…
10-20 20:56:44	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x16cdd4…
10-20 20:55:00	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	184	79¢	$146	0x579aaf…
10-14 20:37:49	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	75	95¢	$71	0xaa6164…
10-14 16:38:45	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before october 31 2026	No	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0x5b4d78…
10-14 07:39:52	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x6238c5…
10-14 03:28:14	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xccbfc5…
10-14 03:11:25	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf9315b…
10-14 03:11:23	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xe0ff0d…
10-14 03:11:23	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xbbea76…
10-14 03:11:17	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xff3a8a…
10-14 03:06:25	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x2326af…
10-14 03:06:23	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xa77fca…
10-14 03:06:20	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xa21acd…
10-14 03:06:17	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x25b646…
10-14 03:01:10	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x7339e6…
10-14 03:01:07	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x276934…
10-14 00:57:04	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x309d64…
10-13 18:34:46	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x98923f…
10-13 18:33:48	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	49	93¢	$46	0xd2477d…
10-13 18:33:06	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	29	83¢	$24	0x275588…
10-13 18:28:09	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	393	82¢	$322	0xa4b2ba…
10-13 18:27:36	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x0149a1…
10-13 18:27:01	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	137	97¢	$132	0x6e7f80…
10-13 18:25:51	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	134	73¢	$98	0xf00026…
10-12 09:18:49	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	225	94¢	$212	0x8a3fec…
10-10 18:51:34	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0xf3be17…
10-09 09:08:19	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x232390…
10-07 20:15:52	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0xfc65e5…
10-07 18:58:01	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x7bc2da…
10-07 18:55:45	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xe7136d…
10-07 18:27:10	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	98¢	$142	0xeab08e…
10-07 17:58:46	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	66	95¢	$63	0x149175…
10-07 17:55:33	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x698a53…
10-07 17:55:15	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x681d19…
10-01 12:37:06	gemini 4pt0 released by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	3	86¢	$3	0xbf8a3e…
10-01 10:59:41	gemini 4pt0 released by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	23	86¢	$20	0x6749ba…
10-01 10:57:02	gemini 4pt0 released by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	58	86¢	$50	0xfb3cb0…
10-01 10:14:45	gemini 4pt0 released by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x042ae6…
10-01 09:15:41	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x27082e…
10-01 05:41:47	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x1c48b9…
10-01 05:39:59	gemini 4pt0 released by october 2 2026	No	BUY	31	96¢	$29	0x46228f…
10-01 05:39:53	gemini 4pt0 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	278	40¢	$111	0xc23f74…
10-01 05:39:44	gemini 4pt0 released by october 10 2026	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x825b9b…
10-01 05:39:33	gemini 4pt0 released by october 5 2026	No	BUY	74	95¢	$70	0xf677f1…
10-01 05:39:02	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	336	85¢	$285	0x1c7f38…
09-30 20:45:17	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	215	97¢	$209	0xff88ce…
09-30 20:43:59	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x17d224…
09-30 20:43:42	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xdf5388…
09-30 20:39:48	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	1,031	95¢	$976	0xe01aff…
09-30 20:38:45	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xf208c5…
09-30 20:36:42	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0xb3e293…
09-30 20:35:42	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	436	94¢	$409	0x2c2eb9…
09-29 18:42:26	Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	0¢	$0	0xcd13ca…
09-29 06:06:54	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	207	96¢	$198	0x74b67c…
09-29 06:05:45	Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0xafcdd3…
09-29 06:05:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2724db…
09-29 06:04:41	Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0xd0be77…
09-29 06:03:29	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x3e13b8…
09-29 06:02:48	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	71	93¢	$66	0x3bc60d…
09-29 05:46:00	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	207	96¢	$198	0x1178fb…
09-29 05:45:42	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x54c62c…
09-29 05:45:29	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	1¢	$1	0xe43570…
09-24 07:14:35	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x3d0006…
09-24 07:14:02	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	92¢	$69	0x1c683c…
09-24 07:11:44	Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	5¢	$9	0x5c910a…
09-24 07:01:41	Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x48a61f…
09-24 07:01:30	Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x2aa6a7…
09-24 07:00:39	next muse spark 1pt4 released by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	171	87¢	$149	0x0c1198…
09-22 06:27:43	Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xcbfc40…
09-22 06:01:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	No	BUY	180	99¢	$177	0x11c4ce…
09-22 05:59:45	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x3e73a7…
09-17 14:59:58	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$984	0xab277e…
09-17 14:49:12	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before september 30 2026	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x2e8904…
09-17 08:04:57	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xb02838…
09-15 21:04:57	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before october 31 2026	No	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0x82f87c…
09-15 20:18:46	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb88455…
09-15 16:18:03	US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xc88c0d…
09-15 16:15:31	Anduril IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	22	94¢	$21	0xa88618…
09-15 16:09:54	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xe225e4…
09-13 19:01:04	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x01a4a3…
09-12 19:12:49	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0x3e2334…
09-12 16:13:39	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x712182…
09-12 15:56:46	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	SELL	54	98¢	$53	0x234e72…
09-12 12:55:00	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	52	23¢	$12	0x946e4c…
09-12 12:54:01	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	83	22¢	$18	0xc86610…
09-12 12:53:49	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	135	9¢	$12	0x1fc0c2…
09-12 12:52:04	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	135	64¢	$86	0x49e525…