Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$27

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

62.0%

Resolved

225

Trades

710

lifetime

Volume

$922

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$20

24 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 09-25 00:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 80 days

Categories

Politics

56% 56% +$9

Other

32% 59% -$60

Crypto

6% 75% +$10

Sports

5% 38% +$15

Tech

0% 67% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (24) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+4	$0	82¢	$3	+$3	07-20 14:26
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	+7	$2	18¢	$1	-$1	09-07 00:50
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+3	$2	48¢	$1	-$1	09-20 00:53
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+9	$2	16¢	$1	-$1	07-03 09:31
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+2	$1	76¢	$1	+$0	05-28 04:06
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	+1	$1	94¢	$1	+$0	06-24 10:51
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	+7	$4	18¢	$1	-$3	07-11 18:49
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+1	$1	94¢	$1	+$0	05-14 07:35
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+1	$1	98¢	$1	+$0	05-12 16:37
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+3	$1	34¢	$1	+$0	06-24 16:57
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	+3	$1	34¢	$1	$0	06-24 16:57
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	Yes	+4	$2	19¢	$1	-$1	08-03 11:14
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	+15	$2	3¢	$1	-$1	07-28 00:09
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	16¢	$0	$0	07-14 10:54
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	+3	$1	15¢	$0	-$1	07-18 09:24
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	+6	$1	6¢	$0	-$1	06-11 06:33
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	+10	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	09-07 00:40
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	11¢	$0	-$1	07-02 23:18
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Yes	+5	$1	6¢	$0	-$1	06-24 10:47
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	+4	$1	8¢	$0	-$1	07-04 11:51
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+3	$1	10¢	$0	-$1	07-16 02:56
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	+2	$1	14¢	$0	-$1	05-06 20:52
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+23	$3	1¢	$0	-$3	09-18 00:27
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	+3	$1	6¢	$0	-$1	06-24 06:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	12	$94	111	107	+4	open	—	08-03 12:05
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	44	$70	49	27	+22	No	+$6	06-28 02:32
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	29	$61	105	81	+24	Yes	+$43	06-17 02:18
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	22	$48	33	26	+6	No	+$9	06-02 09:21
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	9	$20	15	12	+3	Yes	+$5	06-17 18:50
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	18	$18	2,914	0	+2,914	No	-$18	07-29 16:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$18	21	19	+1	No	-$1	06-28 03:42
will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	9	$17	9	9	+0	No	+$1	06-27 00:22
iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	13	$16	19	5	+14	Yes	+$1	07-13 20:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	10	$14	66	26	+40	No	-$2	05-07 21:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	11	$14	50	32	+18	No	-$4	05-28 04:59
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	12	$12	45	0	+45	Yes	+$27	06-30 07:59
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	11	$11	19	6	+13	No	+$1	05-08 10:06
will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	11	$11	12	0	+12	Yes	+$1	07-08 10:49
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	10	$10	32	0	+32	Yes	-$2	06-18 18:57
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	10	$9	17	11	+6	No	-$6	06-20 21:49
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	9	$9	60	0	+60	No	-$4	06-18 06:02
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 21 2026	9	$9	163	0	+163	No	-$4	06-24 10:24
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	8	$8	8	0	+8	Yes	+$0	06-28 14:07
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	8	$8	8	0	+8	Yes	+$0	07-20 23:48
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	8	$7	13	6	+6	No	-$7	07-30 04:11
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	6	$7	10	8	+2	No	-$1	06-30 04:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	4	$7	11	10	+1	Yes	+$2	05-08 01:09
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	4	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	06-25 01:49
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	7	$7	172	0	+172	Yes	-$6	07-13 10:06
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	7	$7	7	0	+7	Yes	+$0	06-30 13:47
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	6	$7	689	0	+689	No	-$5	05-06 01:49
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?	3	$6	9	6	+3	Yes	+$2	05-19 23:47
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?	6	$6	392	0	+392	Yes	-$6	06-19 09:27
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	5	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	-$5	05-07 07:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-25 00:43:51	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x1c33ce…
09-25 00:37:33	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x8e6540…
09-25 00:33:47	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x222104…
09-25 00:05:39	Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x83eec9…
09-22 00:07:10	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8b49b1…
09-20 00:53:16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x69f36d…
09-20 00:08:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xa05877…
09-19 00:40:13	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x27a5b5…
09-19 00:39:51	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf8eb3a…
09-18 00:27:55	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x3d052f…
09-18 00:14:57	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xeb4d1e…
09-14 00:44:28	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x328af8…
09-10 00:38:43	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x41f672…
09-07 00:50:51	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x46495a…
09-07 00:41:46	Will Trump pardon anyone by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xdf17c1…
09-07 00:40:21	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x246cb7…
09-06 00:05:39	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x2c1244…
08-19 00:27:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x0ab543…
08-18 00:34:01	Will Eddie Speir be the FL-16 Republican nominee?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd4ce4d…
08-18 00:34:00	Will Sydney Gruters be the FL-16 Republican nominee?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7edc66…
08-16 00:38:42	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xbe8f9c…
08-15 00:09:15	will trump say ballroom this week 20260807162748312	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xb35f02…
08-12 00:19:01	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x585383…
08-07 00:46:30	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd7154d…
08-03 13:50:03	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x7582b1…
08-03 13:49:59	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xd51606…
08-03 12:05:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xd72354…
08-03 11:14:48	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xd1ef5c…
08-01 10:09:51	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xbda203…
07-30 04:11:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x75e96a…
07-30 04:11:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x06c86a…
07-30 04:01:29	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xdf8fa4…
07-30 04:00:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x2ef6ba…
07-30 03:08:32	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x9bc7ad…
07-30 02:48:56	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xe10958…
07-30 00:42:11	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x8ab1a6…
07-29 23:02:48	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xe3d2c9…
07-29 17:55:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x0f7db2…
07-29 17:54:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x43f899…
07-29 17:52:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3979aa…
07-29 17:36:59	will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260727151618909	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x57b58a…
07-29 17:09:38	will john cornyn vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821983	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2737fc…
07-29 16:46:14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4d4c9f…
07-29 16:34:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x363df0…
07-29 16:21:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x8044e0…
07-29 16:09:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xb7d057…
07-29 14:56:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x65864f…
07-29 14:34:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe16a74…
07-29 10:56:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x2b1bfe…
07-29 05:54:45	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x36fa5e…
07-28 23:15:08	jay clayton confirmed as director of national intelligence by december 31 20260611210916709	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x257ee7…
07-28 23:15:01	jay clayton confirmed as director of national intelligence by december 31 20260611210916709	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x65b92c…
07-28 22:33:28	will thom tillis vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821981	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb60eba…
07-28 13:03:07	mlb cle cin 2026 07 27	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x7a6b7a…
07-28 07:08:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xdd8a71…
07-28 03:13:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xbcd3a7…
07-28 03:13:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x92d006…
07-28 03:13:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x7d5136…
07-28 02:18:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb79a99…
07-28 01:01:10	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc4667f…
07-28 00:55:46	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3f6d99…
07-28 00:22:48	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xb94ed3…
07-28 00:09:06	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xa73461…
07-27 23:32:57	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x12ae86…
07-27 23:32:45	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x645af2…
07-27 23:20:27	ukraine strikes another tanker in the caspian sea by july 31 2026 20260726221135932	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xea8ac2…
07-27 18:18:52	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x878a63…
07-27 18:18:43	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x019eb5…
07-26 03:12:45	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xbae612…
07-25 10:11:00	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf53914…
07-25 06:53:57	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x63230d…
07-25 04:11:27	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf55bb8…
07-25 03:12:06	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xcc7777…
07-25 03:02:57	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xa75780…
07-25 02:54:54	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xc3d30f…
07-25 02:53:12	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xc46fb4…
07-25 01:33:00	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x1f1b26…
07-24 16:18:43	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x4733bd…
07-24 16:12:39	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xf536ad…
07-24 16:12:06	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xab38ff…
07-24 16:11:34	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xeb34ef…
07-24 16:09:52	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	No	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x2a088a…
07-24 16:09:39	Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x2f4f43…
07-24 08:30:07	will dow say carbon 5 times during earnings call 20260717163814086	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x445a14…
07-24 08:23:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xd20264…
07-24 08:23:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x7e25e9…
07-24 08:20:58	will dow say carbon 5 times during earnings call 20260717163814086	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2f0c4c…
07-24 08:19:21	will dow say carbon 5 times during earnings call 20260717163814086	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xcd057b…
07-24 06:52:00	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xdfae6b…
07-24 06:46:51	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0d324f…
07-23 18:05:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xda6c33…
07-23 17:37:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x448b1e…
07-23 17:22:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x51f044…
07-23 16:56:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x2c162d…
07-23 16:37:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x9bda1c…
07-23 16:25:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xa1dc2d…
07-23 16:14:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x6a43c3…
07-23 12:52:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x3b3006…
07-23 12:38:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x35872e…
07-23 12:23:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x4dacae…