Shameless-Ideal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$814

Unrealized P&L

+$430

Hit rate

81.3%

Resolved

917

Trades

18,201

lifetime

Volume

$599.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

$14.1K

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 01:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 186 days

Categories

Politics

57% 80% +$4,554

Other

41% 79% -$3,916

Crypto

2% 73% -$1,517

Sports

1% 68% +$268

Tech

0% 33% -$203

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	-15,047	-$12,845	82¢	$-12263	+$582	10-13 16:52
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	-1,000	-$620	86¢	$-860	-$240	08-01 02:28
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	-777	-$646	94¢	$-734	-$88	08-03 14:05
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+185	-$85	85¢	$157	+$242	08-25 07:47
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	-61	-$53	64¢	$-39	+$14	10-07 10:37
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+120	$92	28¢	$33	-$59	09-28 11:59
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	+175	$102	18¢	$32	-$69	10-17 15:14
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	-20	-$4	16¢	$-3	+$0	06-05 04:53
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?	No	+0	$1	96¢	$0	-$1	09-02 14:57
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	-0	-$49	90¢	$-0	+$49	10-04 15:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	432	$35.2K	19,105	16,696	+2,408	No	+$103	02-21 03:31
Kash Patel out by December 31?	643	$30.3K	17,585	32,632	-15,047	open	—	10-13 16:52
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	635	$27.9K	14,168	16,776	-2,607	Yes	+$2,384	02-28 06:40
will the us next strike iran on february 17 2026 et	217	$23.9K	12,704	11,350	+1,354	No	+$26	02-17 22:45
will the us next strike iran on february 21 2026 et	294	$21.5K	12,172	12,714	-541	No	+$37	02-22 03:00
will the us next strike iran on february 22 2026 et	358	$20.6K	12,155	13,286	-1,131	No	+$31	02-22 08:30
Kash Patel out by June 30?	357	$15.8K	10,044	11,573	-1,529	No	-$408	06-30 03:57
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	193	$15.2K	9,777	6,786	+2,991	No	+$22	03-08 21:39
will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	280	$10.9K	6,069	5,146	+923	No	+$42	02-20 08:43
Kash Patel out by May 31?	153	$9.6K	5,918	5,953	-35	No	+$199	05-29 17:33
will the us next strike iran on february 19 2026 et	66	$8.9K	4,844	4,174	+669	No	+$35	02-20 03:57
Kash Patel out by April 30?	236	$8.0K	4,199	5,136	-937	No	-$2	05-01 02:05
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	187	$7.4K	3,789	3,858	-68	No	+$19	02-28 03:44
will the us next strike iran on february 26 2026 et	111	$6.6K	3,109	3,751	-642	No	-$7	02-27 02:24
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	135	$5.8K	3,100	3,975	-875	No	+$775	02-28 05:29
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 7 249 562	102	$5.7K	2,833	3,092	-259	No	+$115	03-08 05:02
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	102	$5.3K	2,302	3,697	-1,395	No	-$82	06-17 14:25
will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179	153	$5.1K	2,928	2,277	+651	No	+$19	02-16 07:44
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	48	$4.9K	2,803	2,803	-0	open	—	10-04 15:00
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	43	$4.8K	2,335	2,542	-206	No	+$33	04-01 13:15
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	57	$4.7K	2,460	2,460	+0	open	—	07-31 11:36
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 9 2026	152	$4.6K	3,220	2,909	+311	Yes	-$651	03-08 22:05
will the us next strike iran on march 1 2026 et	161	$4.6K	2,315	2,431	-116	No	+$6	02-28 07:28
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	55	$4.3K	2,711	2,233	+479	No	+$251	03-05 04:20
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	100	$4.2K	9,107	6,048	+3,058	Yes	-$659	02-28 06:25
will another country recognize somaliland by march 31	42	$4.1K	2,212	2,277	-65	No	+$109	03-31 22:17
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 5 748 625	63	$4.0K	2,293	2,302	-9	No	+$87	03-06 05:55
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	21	$4.0K	2,131	2,131	+0	No	+$103	03-25 14:59
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	127	$3.8K	2,542	2,542	+0	open	—	09-23 19:54
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	281	$3.7K	4,403	4,218	+185	open	—	08-25 07:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 01:31:48	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	150	6¢	$9	0x1e1767…
10-27 01:30:45	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	150	7¢	$10	0xfb5c4e…
10-27 01:30:33	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xea9b3c…
10-27 01:30:33	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	270	7¢	$20	0x4f3782…
10-27 01:30:33	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x3f356e…
10-18 17:03:36	Will Lighter dip to $2 before 2027?	No	SELL	80	80¢	$64	0x106173…
10-18 09:40:35	Will $PONS reach $2 in 2026?	No	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0xf14b12…
10-17 15:14:59	Will $PONS reach $1.5 in 2026?	No	SELL	27	73¢	$20	0x895e3b…
10-17 15:14:48	Will $PONS reach $1.5 in 2026?	No	SELL	13	74¢	$10	0x9a9fd0…
10-17 15:14:30	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xfd5c49…
10-17 15:14:00	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	SELL	58	16¢	$10	0xd897a5…
10-17 15:13:50	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	SELL	38	70¢	$26	0x719881…
10-17 15:13:45	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	SELL	23	18¢	$4	0x92e398…
10-17 15:13:20	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$3	0x667996…
10-17 15:12:47	Will Lighter reach $15 before 2027?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xfa0be9…
10-17 15:12:12	Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb209ba…
10-16 00:13:52	Will Nikki Haley announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x8b3cc4…
10-15 23:31:45	Will Nikki Haley announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	17	93¢	$16	0xccb7cd…
10-15 15:19:02	Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027?	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xa6c5b4…
10-15 05:11:34	Will Aster reach $2.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x62f3bd…
10-14 15:57:16	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	No	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0x68d612…
10-14 15:56:52	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x80e9c3…
10-14 15:49:40	Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0x1c72b1…
10-14 15:48:27	Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x975cae…
10-14 15:47:55	Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?	No	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0xf19058…
10-14 15:47:15	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x7c1d95…
10-14 15:46:40	Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0010 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$15	0xdd588b…
10-13 23:14:28	Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x0dd002…
10-13 23:13:58	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0xb9f505…
10-13 16:52:31	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	326	74¢	$242	0x27f320…
10-13 16:31:48	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	102	75¢	$77	0x9929d8…
10-13 16:31:40	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x44dfd8…
10-13 16:31:27	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	216	77¢	$165	0xcc15f0…
10-13 16:30:58	Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x2a17c8…
10-13 16:30:00	Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	93¢	$26	0x383c8c…
10-13 15:41:40	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	119	78¢	$93	0xfc7954…
10-13 15:41:31	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	58	79¢	$46	0x6497d2…
10-13 05:23:14	Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	140	92¢	$128	0x6b7de5…
10-13 04:10:59	Will Donald Trump endorse Marco Rubio in the 2028 US Presidential election?	No	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x945b08…
10-13 04:10:56	Will Donald Trump endorse Donald Trump Jr. in the 2028 US Presidential election?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x94349b…
10-13 04:10:50	Will Donald Trump endorse J.D. Vance in the 2028 US Presidential election?	No	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0xe14104…
10-13 02:38:18	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	364	74¢	$270	0x3490d1…
10-13 01:08:33	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	30	75¢	$22	0xcd7fe9…
10-13 01:08:24	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	43	74¢	$32	0xde7d9a…
10-13 01:07:39	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	246	77¢	$189	0x99507d…
10-13 00:31:23	Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Dec 31?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xc769d1…
10-13 00:30:30	Will Aster dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x7260b5…
10-13 00:30:06	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $150 in October?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x4ceb69…
10-13 00:29:59	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $155 in October?	No	SELL	21	94¢	$20	0xe13172…
10-13 00:29:38	Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	78¢	$21	0x4c2fc8…
10-13 00:29:09	Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0xa858e5…
10-13 00:25:59	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	115	85¢	$98	0x0421ee…
10-12 23:35:35	Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x346558…
10-12 23:33:08	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	No	SELL	170	84¢	$143	0x9db7b2…
10-12 23:17:33	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x9a9dfd…
10-12 23:16:48	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	366	52¢	$189	0x2b145e…
10-12 23:01:02	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	735	77¢	$569	0xffbe7a…
10-11 11:56:09	Will UNI dip to $3.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	94¢	$22	0xc4ac3d…
10-10 15:10:10	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	595	82¢	$488	0x867ce2…
10-09 18:44:47	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	73	82¢	$60	0xaa8cfd…
10-08 22:27:36	Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x7abfc3…
10-08 21:17:09	Will Lighter reach $12 before 2027?	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0xcbf721…
10-08 21:10:05	Will Lighter reach $12 before 2027?	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x458a43…
10-08 19:58:08	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	30	77¢	$23	0x788abf…
10-08 19:58:06	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	430	77¢	$332	0xf1b229…
10-08 19:43:21	Will Hyperliquid reach $150 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0xcd01df…
10-08 18:57:45	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	151	79¢	$120	0xf635f7…
10-08 17:32:24	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	453	79¢	$358	0x0d3a35…
10-08 16:47:30	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	722	80¢	$575	0x17d5ed…
10-07 14:53:44	Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x4dc6b6…
10-07 13:02:55	Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xaa0707…
10-07 13:02:20	Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	78¢	$19	0xa588e7…
10-07 10:42:41	Will UNI dip to $2.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$9	0xfbe3c6…
10-07 10:42:08	Will UNI dip to $4.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	46	74¢	$34	0xe9c726…
10-07 10:37:51	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	70	79¢	$55	0x160ac3…
10-07 10:35:54	Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027?	No	SELL	119	87¢	$104	0x01201f…
10-07 02:52:26	Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0xf5974d…
10-06 19:09:36	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x924bac…
10-06 17:39:35	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x7db309…
10-06 17:13:56	U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	152	79¢	$119	0xb299c7…
10-06 14:55:17	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x5454a5…
10-06 14:43:38	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	58¢	$7	0xd2ad2f…
10-06 14:43:35	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0x606366…
10-06 13:57:30	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	261	17¢	$44	0xd5175b…
10-06 13:56:12	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	201	16¢	$32	0x66a747…
10-06 13:49:04	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0x63eb41…
10-06 13:49:03	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	328	14¢	$46	0xeb4f6d…
10-06 13:49:03	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x9994a0…
10-06 13:49:03	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	13	14¢	$2	0x98b8a5…
10-06 13:49:03	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	32	14¢	$4	0x22d780…
10-06 12:34:39	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x6862b9…
10-06 12:13:55	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x6b4e48…
10-06 09:10:33	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	No	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0xc02260…
10-06 08:47:28	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	35	82¢	$29	0xe4ab3c…
10-06 07:32:46	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0x7c434f…
10-06 07:30:57	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0xd7aec8…
10-06 06:55:52	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	120	84¢	$101	0x29e24c…
10-06 06:55:48	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xcd50b1…
10-06 06:55:45	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	17	84¢	$14	0x18829e…
10-06 02:07:04	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	No	SELL	19	93¢	$18	0xca8f44…