Realized P&L (7d)
+$38
Unrealized P&L
-$10.5K
Hit rate
99.8%
Resolved (7d)
2
Trades (7d)
2
22,287 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$2.53K
$3.23M lifetime
Avg / trade
$145
Open exposure
$64.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-07
last 10-27 16:39
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 124 days
Categories
Sports
46% 52% -$8,754
Other
35% 50% -$36,567
Politics
20% 56% +$52,175
Crypto
0% 62% -$633
Tech
0% 67% +$32
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$47
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
22 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -20,592 -$8,443 97¢ $-19923 -$11,480 04-28 16:34
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No -10,890 -$4,796 99¢ $-10754 -$5,958 06-06 14:45
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -10,767 -$9,798 98¢ $-10551 -$754 05-06 01:13
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +3,415 $2,049 100¢ $3.4K +$1,366 09-17 22:37
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +9,545 $4,820 33¢ $3.1K -$1,713 09-19 23:14
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +2,650 $2,528 99¢ $2.6K +$96 10-27 16:39
US recession by end of 2026? No -1,830 -$1,438 94¢ $-1711 -$273 05-25 17:41
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -4,181 -$1,527 38¢ $-1580 -$53 05-12 18:13
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -24,052 -$5,240 6¢ $-1323 +$3,917 05-14 03:17
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -4,290 -$1,085 20¢ $-862 +$223 05-13 15:55
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -3,000 -$1,627 29¢ $-855 +$772 06-17 18:03
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -856 -$779 96¢ $-819 -$40 05-14 13:54
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No -802 -$737 97¢ $-777 -$40 05-18 17:50
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No -13,603 -$2,993 6¢ $-748 +$2,245 05-13 18:20
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes -732 -$607 88¢ $-641 -$34 05-23 10:27
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +616 $363 95¢ $585 +$222 05-06 15:34
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No -1,867 -$1,064 30¢ $-551 +$513 05-13 17:56
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No -1,785 -$976 29¢ $-509 +$468 06-16 18:32
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -9,330 -$467 5¢ $-481 -$14 05-25 11:22
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes -1,738 -$556 24¢ $-409 +$148 05-13 15:57
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes -951 -$323 42¢ $-404 -$81 05-24 07:09
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +6,440 $167 5¢ $306 +$139 10-06 19:29
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes -391 -$321 73¢ $-285 +$36 06-19 15:10
Discord IPO before 2027? No -280 -$57 94¢ $-262 -$206 05-23 19:09
Databricks IPO before 2027? No -245 -$190 98¢ $-239 -$50 05-23 07:38
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No -240 -$220 97¢ $-233 -$12 05-25 16:48
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Yes +1,244 $187 16¢ $205 +$19 09-19 12:23
Anduril IPO before 2027? No -194 -$156 98¢ $-191 -$36 05-13 23:34
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No -258 -$209 74¢ $-190 +$20 06-19 15:10
Vanta IPO before 2027? No +180 $154 95¢ $171 +$17 04-30 11:29