Realized P&L
+$21.4K
Unrealized P&L
-$16.0K
Hit rate
56.3%
Resolved
1,753
Trades
22,287
lifetime
Volume
$3.23M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$145
Open exposure
$58.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-07
last 10-27 16:39
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 128 days
Categories
Sports
46%
52%
-$8,329
Other
35%
50%
-$36,646
Politics
20%
60%
+$66,918
Crypto
0%
62%
-$633
Tech
0%
67%
+$32
Pop-Culture
0%
100%
+$47
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
18 active days in 12wk
• peak 49 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | -20,592 | -$8,443 | 98¢ | $-20149 | -$11,706 | 04-28 16:34 | |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | No | -10,890 | -$4,796 | 98¢ | $-10716 | -$5,920 | 06-06 14:45 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | -10,767 | -$9,798 | 99¢ | $-10632 | -$834 | 05-06 01:13 | |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | +9,545 | $4,820 | 66¢ | $6.3K | +$1,480 | 09-19 23:14 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | -1,830 | -$1,438 | 96¢ | $-1762 | -$324 | 05-25 17:41 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | -4,181 | -$1,527 | 34¢ | $-1432 | +$95 | 05-12 18:13 | |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | No | -856 | -$779 | 98¢ | $-839 | -$60 | 05-14 13:54 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | -4,290 | -$1,085 | 19¢ | $-813 | +$272 | 05-13 15:55 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | -802 | -$737 | 98¢ | $-782 | -$44 | 05-18 17:50 | |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | -732 | -$607 | 88¢ | $-644 | -$37 | 05-23 10:27 | |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | +616 | $363 | 97¢ | $599 | +$236 | 05-06 15:34 | |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | -3,906 | -$152 | 13¢ | $-490 | -$338 | 05-14 00:15 | |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | -9,330 | -$467 | 5¢ | $-434 | +$33 | 05-25 11:22 | |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | +6,440 | $167 | 5¢ | $328 | +$161 | 10-06 19:29 | |
| Discord IPO before 2027? | No | -280 | -$57 | 95¢ | $-265 | -$208 | 05-23 19:09 | |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? | No | -245 | -$190 | 98¢ | $-239 | -$50 | 05-23 07:38 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | -240 | -$220 | 98¢ | $-234 | -$14 | 05-25 16:48 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | Yes | +1,244 | $187 | 16¢ | $205 | +$19 | 09-19 12:23 | |
| Anduril IPO before 2027? | No | -194 | -$156 | 98¢ | $-191 | -$35 | 05-13 23:34 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | -951 | -$323 | 18¢ | $-176 | +$147 | 05-24 07:09 | |
| Vanta IPO before 2027? | No | +180 | $154 | 97¢ | $175 | +$21 | 04-30 11:29 | |
| Celonis IPO before 2027? | No | -168 | -$152 | 92¢ | $-154 | -$2 | 06-12 22:54 | |
| Stripe IPO before 2027? | No | -157 | -$149 | 98¢ | $-153 | -$4 | 05-04 22:57 | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | Yes | -2,275 | -$432 | 6¢ | $-148 | +$284 | 05-24 02:43 | |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | -3,500 | -$94 | 4¢ | $-142 | -$47 | 05-27 01:57 | |
| Brex IPO before 2027? | No | -98 | -$96 | 99¢ | $-97 | $0 | 05-25 09:45 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | No | +86 | $51 | 99¢ | $85 | +$34 | 08-20 14:15 | |
| Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | No | -63 | -$60 | 97¢ | $-62 | -$2 | 06-13 13:35 | |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | -2,211 | -$907 | 3¢ | $-60 | +$847 | 05-24 05:28 | |
| Deel IPO before 2027? | No | +60 | $46 | 99¢ | $59 | +$13 | 05-12 18:53 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 55 | $106.1K | 60,963 | 48,463 | +12,500 | No | +$1,610 | 03-29 16:53 |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 45 | $70.1K | 133,095 | 3,806 | +129,289 | Los Angeles Dodgers | -$1,549 | 05-09 01:42 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | 97 | $57.9K | 44,162 | 44,405 | -242 | Yes | +$13,375 | 04-07 23:15 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 35 | $56.7K | 64,894 | 15,686 | +49,208 | No | +$199 | 02-26 16:34 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 71 | $51.2K | 27,031 | 25,752 | +1,280 | Yes | -$35 | 03-09 20:59 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 26 | $40.9K | 55,642 | 9,176 | +46,466 | Yes | -$41 | 02-22 19:16 |
| will united states win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics | 145 | $37.5K | 44,357 | 24,113 | +20,243 | Yes | -$1,009 | 02-21 07:29 |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | 51 | $29.5K | 22,892 | 18,219 | +4,673 | Yes | +$720 | 02-26 17:01 |
| will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282 | 32 | $25.7K | 13,500 | 13,435 | +65 | No | +$515 | 03-09 02:55 |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | 40 | $22.9K | 37,466 | 27,143 | +10,323 | cancelled | -$866 | 04-30 23:03 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 12 | $21.1K | 16,894 | 16,894 | +0 | Yes | +$10,823 | 04-07 23:13 |
| will hannah spencer win the gorton and denton by election | 65 | $20.1K | 15,910 | 13,485 | +2,425 | Yes | +$302 | 02-25 00:10 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 40 | $19.7K | 15,488 | 15,488 | +0 | No | -$342 | 05-02 20:07 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971 | 66 | $19.5K | 23,274 | 3,487 | +19,787 | Yes | -$1,557 | 03-30 16:41 |
| will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas | 132 | $18.5K | 25,647 | 18,803 | +6,844 | Yes | -$765 | 03-04 06:09 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 37 | $18.2K | 21,316 | 5,500 | +15,816 | Yes | +$3 | 02-21 01:03 |
| will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas | 110 | $17.7K | 20,875 | 9,167 | +11,708 | No | -$1,036 | 03-04 09:05 |
| will sean penn win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards | 194 | $16.8K | 16,399 | 8,475 | +7,924 | Yes | +$4,150 | 03-15 06:02 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 63 | $15.9K | 16,761 | 6,414 | +10,348 | Yes | -$279 | 02-28 14:14 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 48 | $15.9K | 14,532 | 14,532 | +0 | Yes | +$1,546 | 02-27 22:27 |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | 48 | $15.3K | 26,000 | 0 | +26,000 | Thunder | +$10,720 | 05-27 00:00 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | 15 | $14.9K | 8,101 | 7,225 | +876 | Yes | +$18 | 03-09 20:58 |
| will another country strike iran by march 31 833 | 23 | $14.1K | 16,623 | 7,011 | +9,612 | No | -$1,995 | 03-10 20:48 |
| Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova | 51 | $14.1K | 28,911 | 4,406 | +24,504 | Marta Kostyuk | -$1,469 | 04-30 21:21 |
| Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? | 123 | $13.9K | 15,093 | 8,309 | +6,784 | No | +$1,983 | 06-07 18:37 |
| New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles | 16 | $13.3K | 26,099 | 0 | +26,099 | New York Yankees | +$2,844 | 05-12 22:35 |
| nba lal gsw 2026 02 28 | 1 | $13.2K | 22,000 | 0 | +22,000 | Lakers | +$8,800 | 02-28 22:12 |
| open up or down on february 18 2026 | 3 | $12.2K | 6,480 | 6,268 | +212 | Up | -$134 | 02-18 18:48 |
| will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards | 82 | $11.9K | 46,126 | 36,364 | +9,762 | No | -$1,026 | 03-08 13:26 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | $11.9K | 20,500 | 0 | +20,500 | Los Angeles Dodgers | +$8,605 | 05-24 16:20 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||