Hospitable-Touch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7.65K

Unrealized P&L

-$34

Hit rate

77.0%

Resolved

204

Trades

1,593

lifetime

Volume

$346.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$218

Open exposure

$17.5K

19 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 10-03 11:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

46% 71% -$12,227

Politics

38% 84% +$2,123

Tech

9% 74% +$1,960

Crypto

3% 100% +$130

Sports

3% 100% +$366

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (19) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	-3,337	-$3,168	98¢	$-3283	-$116	04-28 19:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-3,400	-$2,311	83¢	$-2822	-$511	07-18 22:19
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	-2,200	-$2,090	96¢	$-2120	-$30	09-11 19:28
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,000	$1,710	78¢	$1.6K	-$150	07-27 15:27
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+1,206	$981	100¢	$1.2K	+$224	06-02 17:20
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+1,000	$902	98¢	$981	+$79	05-08 00:13
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+1,000	$770	92¢	$925	+$155	05-12 18:57
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+800	$618	97¢	$773	+$156	06-02 17:57
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+970	$595	76¢	$742	+$147	05-23 11:39
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	+600	$432	95¢	$572	+$140	05-14 13:24
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	-499	-$451	97¢	$-486	-$35	07-29 08:06
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+500	$450	97¢	$485	+$35	06-03 05:26
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	-500	-$395	96¢	$-482	-$87	05-05 10:17
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+500	$290	58¢	$292	+$2	06-27 18:54
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	-237	-$218	96¢	$-226	-$8	06-20 09:44
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+500	$320	42¢	$210	-$110	08-17 20:52
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+226	$149	92¢	$208	+$59	06-15 11:27
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	+96	$75	92¢	$88	+$13	05-15 16:49
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	+21	$16	88¢	$19	+$3	05-06 18:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	13	$18.2K	10,799	7,894	+2,905	No	+$373	05-01 03:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	63	$17.3K	10,000	8,750	+1,250	Yes	-$514	07-29 18:00
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	51	$12.1K	12,026	499	+11,527	Yes	-$11,188	05-01 06:01
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	52	$11.0K	10,834	1,236	+9,598	Yes	+$917	04-30 15:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	10	$10.0K	5,546	5,546	-0	No	+$821	04-26 21:27
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	7	$9.2K	5,100	5,100	+0	No	+$45	05-11 04:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$9.0K	6,200	6,200	+0	No	-$238	05-06 22:39
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	24	$8.9K	4,570	7,970	-3,400	open	—	07-18 22:19
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	4	$8.7K	4,359	4,357	+3	No	+$17	04-25 18:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	8	$7.9K	4,008	4,008	+0	No	+$36	04-26 23:12
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	5	$7.9K	6,177	6,177	+0	Yes	+$6	04-28 22:39
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	12	$7.4K	3,840	3,840	+0	No	+$187	04-27 16:03
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	19	$5.7K	5,924	0	+5,924	Yes	+$235	06-02 17:47
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	26	$5.4K	3,200	3,200	+0	Yes	+$192	09-15 06:44
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	7	$5.4K	4,100	2,050	+2,050	No	+$362	05-01 10:40
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$5.1K	2,587	2,587	+0	Yes	+$16	04-27 15:45
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	18	$5.0K	4,466	1,277	+3,188	Yes	+$194	04-28 22:54
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	26	$4.9K	4,300	1,060	+3,240	No	+$435	09-11 14:58
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	35	$4.9K	4,536	4,536	+0	Yes	-$792	04-27 19:18
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?	18	$4.7K	3,585	2,602	+983	No	+$472	05-11 23:47
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	9	$4.5K	3,774	921	+2,853	No	+$212	04-29 16:00
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?	6	$4.4K	4,480	0	+4,480	No	+$54	04-24 18:38
New pandemic in 2026?	6	$4.4K	2,460	2,460	+0	open	—	05-15 14:10
trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	13	$4.2K	4,798	0	+4,798	No	+$556	04-30 03:16
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	16	$4.0K	2,267	1,984	+283	Yes	-$109	05-13 10:56
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	8	$3.9K	2,038	2,038	-0	No	+$31	05-25 01:18
deepseek v4 released by april 24	23	$3.9K	4,145	0	+4,145	Yes	+$257	04-24 04:59
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	14	$3.8K	2,468	1,571	+897	Yes	+$175	04-30 01:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$3.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$20	05-11 08:57
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	4	$3.5K	3,702	0	+3,702	No	+$175	04-30 22:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-03 11:24:56	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1,519	56¢	$850	0x345fb2…
10-01 21:07:44	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	56¢	$7	0x6ae658…
10-01 21:06:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	37¢	$370	0x7a2078…
10-01 21:04:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	37¢	$370	0x1a6d95…
09-26 03:17:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,000	45¢	$900	0x10339c…
09-15 06:44:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,273	88¢	$1,120	0xa01f70…
09-15 06:39:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	88¢	$6	0xaa08cc…
09-15 06:33:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0xe0d809…
09-15 06:32:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x1ee9df…
09-15 06:32:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x29da82…
09-15 06:25:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0xe10107…
09-15 06:24:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0xa13525…
09-15 06:24:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	36	88¢	$32	0x407f40…
09-15 06:24:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x5447d6…
09-15 06:23:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x195dea…
09-15 06:21:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	90	88¢	$79	0x549810…
09-15 06:18:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0xc4aa6a…
09-15 06:16:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	27	88¢	$24	0xbbb631…
09-15 06:16:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	22	88¢	$19	0x39edef…
09-15 06:16:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	83	88¢	$73	0xcb4cc8…
09-15 06:10:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	109	88¢	$96	0x483315…
09-15 06:08:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	218	88¢	$191	0x8fb7bd…
09-15 06:03:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0xa38347…
09-15 06:03:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	26	88¢	$23	0x06dabc…
09-15 06:00:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	26	88¢	$23	0x542fa5…
09-15 05:59:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0xc7a36b…
09-15 05:59:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x8fb953…
09-15 05:58:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x44396d…
09-15 05:56:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0x437600…
09-15 05:53:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	926	88¢	$815	0x6e425a…
09-11 19:28:22	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0xe447ee…
09-11 15:03:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,200	82¢	$2,624	0x46b668…
09-11 14:58:19	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,060	99¢	$1,049	0x05e3cd…
09-11 14:56:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,000	18¢	$720	0x8ef2ed…
09-04 14:55:30	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	489	74¢	$362	0xe9162a…
09-04 14:29:31	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	81¢	$405	0xbdfb82…
09-02 14:37:22	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	74¢	$8	0x530829…
08-29 18:50:07	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0xcc2b90…
08-28 09:02:00	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	90¢	$80	0x75f79f…
08-28 09:00:55	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xf04ba3…
08-27 22:57:45	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	207	90¢	$187	0x8af5b7…
08-25 17:09:40	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x669158…
08-25 17:09:39	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	90¢	$75	0x4997df…
08-25 17:09:39	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x411c4e…
08-25 17:09:24	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	335	90¢	$302	0xb2f3f6…
08-25 16:47:22	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x6ecd41…
08-25 16:47:22	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x48565b…
08-25 16:47:13	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x4086b6…
08-25 16:47:09	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x0b00ea…
08-25 16:46:36	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x1fae5f…
08-21 13:33:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x284674…
08-21 13:33:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	347	70¢	$243	0x9f00ca…
08-21 13:24:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	77	70¢	$54	0x81983c…
08-21 13:22:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	70¢	$210	0xb7bcaf…
08-21 13:22:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	109	70¢	$76	0xffd7d3…
08-21 13:16:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	70¢	$31	0xfd1fc8…
08-21 12:53:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,389	70¢	$972	0x8c36f4…
08-21 12:13:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x8f249e…
08-21 12:09:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xb06fd1…
08-21 11:29:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x6f9678…
08-21 11:19:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xb11a69…
08-21 03:55:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	70¢	$39	0x68836e…
08-21 03:54:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	70¢	$39	0x5c8bda…
08-21 03:54:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	70¢	$39	0xf315e2…
08-21 03:54:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	70¢	$39	0x56237c…
08-21 03:41:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xf8d503…
08-21 03:41:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x58e8cc…
08-21 03:41:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x3a5aed…
08-21 03:16:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	718	70¢	$503	0x044dd0…
08-21 03:02:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	70¢	$2	0x067d74…
08-21 02:52:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x8e2d8c…
08-21 02:36:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xe3f460…
08-21 02:31:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xe82d66…
08-21 02:19:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x5273de…
08-21 02:08:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	70¢	$5	0xcc5eea…
08-21 02:08:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	70¢	$5	0xbc517c…
08-21 02:06:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0xfed361…
08-21 01:43:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0x48d4f5…
08-21 01:40:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xcb4099…
08-21 01:06:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x188941…
08-21 00:50:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x04fbcf…
08-21 00:37:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$3	0x3e8631…
08-21 00:16:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xe9d726…
08-20 23:14:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x8db54c…
08-20 22:56:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	70¢	$14	0x84c9d3…
08-20 22:50:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	70¢	$14	0xaec9d1…
08-20 22:45:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0xf3beb5…
08-20 22:39:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	274	70¢	$192	0x2c433d…
08-20 22:29:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x8e4667…
08-20 21:55:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x50616c…
08-20 21:50:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xe428ec…
08-18 20:59:18	Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$990	0x45ce3f…
08-18 01:43:33	Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$0	0xecb33d…
08-18 00:59:10	Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	No	BUY	101	70¢	$71	0x5fd7be…
08-18 00:05:39	Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x580d71…
08-17 23:57:39	Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	No	BUY	69	70¢	$48	0x6ae26f…
08-17 22:30:13	Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x0011af…
08-17 21:37:12	Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xf1c5f5…
08-17 21:12:43	Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x52f8c3…
08-17 21:03:33	Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	No	BUY	18	70¢	$13	0x7b3834…