Improbable-Goodwill — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

59.2%

Resolved

149

Trades

214

lifetime

Volume

$409

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-27

last 05-22 20:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Other

85% 24% -$2

Crypto

14% 58% +$6

Politics

1% 0% -$4

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-22).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+85	$7	1¢	$1	-$6	05-12 07:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 3?	2	$22	17	17	+0	Yes	+$11	05-03 15:42
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7?	2	$16	15	15	+0	Yes	+$14	05-07 19:24
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?	2	$14	12	12	+0	Yes	+$10	05-11 19:00
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?	2	$9	9	9	+0	Yes	+$7	05-05 09:04
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 5?	2	$9	7	7	+0	Yes	+$6	05-05 09:04
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 13?	2	$8	7	7	+0	Yes	+$6	05-13 14:50
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?	2	$8	7	7	+0	Yes	+$6	05-12 07:28
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	2	$8	5	5	+0	Up	+$2	05-02 19:20
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$7	85	0	+85	open	—	05-12 07:29
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8?	2	$7	6	6	+0	Yes	+$5	05-08 19:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 18?	2	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	+$3	05-18 18:02
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22?	2	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	+$3	05-22 20:09
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 20?	2	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	+$3	05-20 20:06
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15?	2	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	+$3	05-15 18:38
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 4?	2	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	+$3	05-04 10:55
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 6?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$3	05-06 16:38
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$4	05-10 09:07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$4	05-17 18:14
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$4	05-02 19:02
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 3?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$4	05-03 15:42
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 4?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$4	05-04 10:56
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 6?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$4	05-06 16:38
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$4	05-10 09:07
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$4	05-12 17:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	2	$5	10	10	+0	Up	-$1	04-30 20:34
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5?	2	$4	5	5	+0	No	+$1	05-05 09:04
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?	2	$4	20	0	+20	No	-$4	05-10 19:04
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 6?	1	$4	15	0	+15	No	-$4	05-05 19:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	3	$4	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	04-30 19:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	2	$3	5	5	+0	Up	+$1	04-30 19:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-22 20:12:10	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xdea58b…
05-22 20:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x9478a1…
05-22 20:09:57	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x51a14a…
05-21 18:18:44	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 22?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x33e56e…
05-21 18:18:23	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 22?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xd60e5d…
05-21 18:18:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x6989aa…
05-21 18:17:48	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 22?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x9daa1f…
05-20 20:09:26	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x398e6e…
05-20 20:09:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x769f92…
05-20 20:08:31	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xf81d82…
05-20 20:08:24	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x9f9b6a…
05-20 20:08:02	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x01c8cb…
05-20 20:07:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xaeb7d7…
05-20 20:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 20?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xdf4585…
05-20 04:20:24	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 20?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x585e6e…
05-20 04:18:08	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 20?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xb0b76d…
05-19 18:44:20	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 20?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xc75938…
05-19 18:44:01	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 20?	Yes	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0xd06a79…
05-19 18:43:10	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 20?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xc59667…
05-19 18:43:03	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 20?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x1e2755…
05-19 11:53:31	Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0x37611a…
05-18 18:19:30	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xc8b558…
05-18 18:11:16	Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xeeb6e7…
05-18 18:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x7d63f9…
05-18 18:06:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xf784f5…
05-18 18:02:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1f45cd…
05-17 18:24:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x164a24…
05-17 18:24:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xacec76…
05-17 18:14:56	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2be5cf…
05-16 20:41:32	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x057d60…
05-16 20:41:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0x424ace…
05-16 20:39:31	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x5b111f…
05-16 20:39:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x2bb916…
05-16 20:39:05	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x198bb1…
05-16 20:38:56	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x39f4a5…
05-15 18:42:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x45f354…
05-15 18:41:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x5e59d5…
05-15 18:41:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x1d0084…
05-15 18:41:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x19d114…
05-15 18:40:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xff343c…
05-15 18:39:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xbd1420…
05-15 18:38:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xbe6dcc…
05-15 18:38:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x93857d…
05-14 18:45:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xdd28ce…
05-14 18:44:52	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x164173…
05-14 18:44:50	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x2ce9e9…
05-14 18:44:36	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xb53e27…
05-14 18:44:03	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x98ab2d…
05-14 18:43:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x4b6ab3…
05-14 18:43:14	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x733e99…
05-13 14:50:50	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 13?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xbd66b9…
05-12 18:05:41	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x33cd4f…
05-12 18:05:20	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x7d339a…
05-12 18:03:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x219e04…
05-12 18:02:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xed5bd8…
05-12 18:02:29	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xdda75c…
05-12 18:02:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x45f818…
05-12 17:05:13	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xee2da2…
05-12 07:29:11	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	9¢	$7	0x8b65ca…
05-12 07:28:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xfceadd…
05-11 19:26:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xcdfbea…
05-11 19:26:33	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x558632…
05-11 19:24:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x7cfb19…
05-11 19:24:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xbe4bd6…
05-11 19:23:52	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x4d147d…
05-11 19:23:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x70a47e…
05-11 19:00:25	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x107257…
05-10 20:00:20	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x12f202…
05-10 19:04:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x2e88d9…
05-10 19:04:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0xd04195…
05-10 19:04:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x9797e0…
05-10 19:02:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x35f730…
05-10 19:02:21	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x019e44…
05-10 19:01:51	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x55441c…
05-10 19:00:57	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xf1b0c9…
05-10 19:00:52	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x043bd3…
05-10 19:00:47	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x7d5fa0…
05-10 19:00:45	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x0a17ef…
05-10 09:09:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x712672…
05-10 09:07:18	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdfc840…
05-10 09:07:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xd2f202…
05-09 19:57:57	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	3	14¢	$0	0x8a3421…
05-09 19:55:06	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x6a296c…
05-09 19:54:54	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xe2ac9f…
05-09 19:54:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xa263db…
05-09 19:54:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x224703…
05-09 19:53:54	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x031d7b…
05-09 19:53:45	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xaa83ae…
05-09 19:52:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x2cab24…
05-09 19:52:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xdf3946…
05-09 19:52:06	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xaec5c4…
05-09 19:51:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x90abed…
05-09 19:50:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x34b0d7…
05-09 19:50:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x2a0eb3…
05-09 19:50:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xeb4840…
05-09 19:49:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x635a50…
05-09 19:49:02	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x987f85…
05-09 19:48:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7ce694…
05-09 19:09:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?	Yes	SELL	300	0¢	$0	0x902103…
05-08 19:25:01	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on May 9?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x83beb7…