Realized P&L
-$16
Unrealized P&L
-$424
Hit rate
29.2%
Resolved
2
Trades
428
lifetime
Volume
$27.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$64
Open exposure
$491
17 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-23 17:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 1 day
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Other
90% 50% $-16
Politics
8%
Sports
2%
Tech
0%
Crypto
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +600 $356 56¢ $333 $-23 07-06 10:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes -3,455 $366 $-41 $-407 07-07 03:34
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -38 $-25 62¢ $-23 +$1 06-06 11:02
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +25 $22 91¢ $23 +$1 06-16 13:39
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes +148 $12 10¢ $14 +$2 07-20 11:33
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No +15 $10 84¢ $13 +$3 06-15 08:20
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +84 $9 11¢ $9 $-1 07-08 06:31
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? Yes -85 $-7 $-6 +$1 06-17 08:55
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes +20 $11 30¢ $6 $-5 06-02 17:46
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -18 $-10 33¢ $-6 +$4 06-11 01:30
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes +50 $8 12¢ $6 $-2 06-26 14:44
NATO article 5 before 2027? Yes +40 $2 $3 +$1 07-02 11:57
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +10 $1 30¢ $3 +$2 07-03 18:30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +10 $4 22¢ $2 $-1 07-22 11:59
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes -32 $-2 $-1 +$1 05-29 08:40
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +2 $1 75¢ $1 +$0 05-29 07:59
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -1 $-0 $-0 +$0 06-01 07:06