Realized P&L
-$442
Unrealized P&L
+$1.81K
Hit rate
91.6%
Resolved
6
Trades
5,941
lifetime
Volume
$1.47M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$247
Open exposure
$35.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-07
last 06-30 12:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 3 days
Categories
Other
55% 50% +$394
Politics
42% 50% $-836
Crypto
2%
Pop-Culture
1%
Sports
0%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 153 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No +3,619 $3,521 100¢ $3.6K +$93 06-23 16:02
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -3,000 $-2,997 100¢ $-2997 +$0 06-30 12:49
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No +2,766 $2,691 99¢ $2.7K +$55 06-30 14:16
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +2,442 $2,277 100¢ $2.4K +$162 06-14 21:40
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No +2,351 $1,552 98¢ $2.3K +$759 06-19 17:36
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,500 $2,185 87¢ $2.2K $-10 06-23 18:50
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -2,000 $-1,998 100¢ $-1998 +$0 06-30 09:31
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No -2,000 $-1,960 100¢ $-1998 $-38 06-01 08:06
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No +1,985 $1,933 100¢ $2.0K +$49 06-25 11:29
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No +1,776 $1,750 99¢ $1.8K +$14 06-29 01:30
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +1,913 $1,316 82¢ $1.6K +$261 06-30 10:44
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No +1,056 $1,009 100¢ $1.1K +$45 06-07 16:48
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No +1,000 $989 100¢ $998 +$9 06-09 22:18
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +1,000 $955 100¢ $996 +$41 06-17 02:17
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? No +936 $909 99¢ $930 +$21 06-29 13:29
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No +895 $879 100¢ $893 +$14 06-20 12:49
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes -2,515 $-639 26¢ $-654 $-15 06-20 00:00
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +924 $431 68¢ $633 +$202 06-15 17:27
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No +600 $512 99¢ $592 +$80 06-12 03:00
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No +441 $414 96¢ $422 +$7 06-17 20:40
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? No +300 $295 100¢ $299 +$4 06-23 16:15
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No +293 $290 99¢ $292 +$1 06-30 15:57
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30? No +281 $277 100¢ $280 +$3 06-25 15:36
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +300 $262 89¢ $266 +$4 06-21 21:46
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No +242 $200 99¢ $240 +$40 06-30 06:57
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No +230 $250 99¢ $228 $-22 06-30 05:58
Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30? No +200 $186 97¢ $195 +$9 06-21 08:51
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +200 $176 92¢ $185 +$9 06-11 15:13
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No -158 $-153 100¢ $-157 $-4 06-03 05:47
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30? No +100 $90 100¢ $100 +$10 05-29 14:41