Inferior-Widow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$55

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.6%

Resolved

Trades

1,075

lifetime

Volume

$31.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-13

last 08-12 10:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

37% 100% +$99

Other

27% 50% +$51

Crypto

25% — —

Sports

9% 25% $-205

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	11	$3.7K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	04-07 04:36
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	9	$1.6K	2,100	1,000	+1,100	open	—	04-07 23:05
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	3	$1.3K	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	02-20 16:48
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	10	$1.2K	6,522	3,714	+2,809	open	—	08-12 10:39
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	20	$1.0K	840	840	+0	Sean Strickland	$-191	05-10 04:43
The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office	9	$924	500	500	+0	Michael	+$59	05-01 03:50
btc updown 15m 1772177400	7	$909	946	274	+671	open	—	02-27 07:44
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	32	$622	566	167	+400	open	—	04-24 02:31
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	15	$599	568	137	+431	Yes	+$99	05-08 12:14
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	19	$581	651	651	+0	open	—	03-19 08:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	9	$521	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	07-20 07:45
will hyperliquid dip to 20 in february 415	4	$513	265	265	+0	open	—	02-27 22:59
eth updown 15m 1772520300	21	$440	246	245	+1	open	—	03-03 06:58
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	13	$436	270	266	+4	open	—	03-05 03:32
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	5	$430	194	271	-77	open	—	04-13 08:07
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	7	$405	30	1,360	-1,330	open	—	07-15 19:43
eth updown 15m 1772128800	7	$403	442	75	+367	open	—	02-26 18:12
england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	3	$398	400	0	+400	open	—	07-06 00:06
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	1	$378	400	0	+400	open	—	02-27 20:04
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	5	$369	589	0	+589	open	—	02-27 21:02
eth updown 15m 1772127900	7	$329	254	251	+3	open	—	02-26 17:59
eth updown 15m 1772092800	13	$321	355	20	+335	open	—	02-26 08:12
eth updown 15m 1772127000	10	$317	370	70	+300	open	—	02-26 17:42
eth updown 15m 1772129700	4	$287	330	0	+330	open	—	02-26 18:26
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	15	$286	229	229	+0	open	—	03-07 17:07
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	4	$269	140	140	+0	open	—	03-05 09:50
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	8	$257	600	700	-100	open	—	08-11 11:23
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	2	$252	270	70	+200	open	—	07-11 21:46
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	7	$240	230	230	+0	open	—	03-04 01:54
bun b04 bay 2026 03 14 bay	3	$231	175	105	+70	open	—	03-14 16:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 10:39:31	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	562	11¢	$62	0xcb7944…
08-12 10:30:48	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	923	11¢	$101	0xba16e0…
08-11 11:23:31	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	22¢	$18	0x5c9f30…
08-09 15:07:40	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0xaa2628…
08-07 17:42:00	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x91e31d…
08-07 15:56:06	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x973d77…
08-07 15:03:49	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	26¢	$29	0xb07607…
08-07 13:10:58	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	230	22¢	$51	0x9922b4…
08-07 13:06:00	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x185d62…
08-07 13:05:40	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	280	26¢	$73	0xa0010f…
08-07 07:06:58	will ricardo quaresma attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630263	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x16ab0e…
08-07 03:54:42	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x8e0be8…
08-06 17:08:15	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	28	22¢	$6	0xea2956…
08-06 15:13:32	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x2fe188…
08-06 15:13:32	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0x178624…
08-06 10:14:06	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x173540…
08-04 06:07:51	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,692	13¢	$220	0xdaee62…
08-03 00:07:38	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	19¢	$1	0x107870…
08-03 00:05:45	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x09bff7…
08-03 00:05:39	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xd80248…
08-03 00:05:33	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x644707…
08-03 00:05:27	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x650fdb…
08-03 00:05:18	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x2b25f6…
08-03 00:05:09	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x21d112…
08-03 00:05:05	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9311f0…
08-03 00:04:56	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xc9f29b…
08-03 00:00:08	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xd2b791…
08-02 23:59:59	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x6a6e9f…
08-02 23:59:53	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x9ad9e8…
08-02 23:59:47	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x4e05d3…
08-02 23:59:38	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xa74d54…
08-02 23:59:29	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x4ce0ff…
08-02 23:59:21	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x8da3a8…
08-02 23:59:15	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xe828d7…
08-02 23:59:08	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x0e6e68…
08-02 23:59:00	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x407d08…
08-02 23:58:54	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x43a13c…
08-02 23:58:48	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x401da4…
08-02 23:58:42	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x24cfd5…
08-02 23:58:35	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x3d03bb…
08-02 23:58:32	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xfcefc7…
08-02 23:58:27	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x94b62d…
08-02 23:57:45	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xc5d510…
08-02 11:23:42	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x4ab8fc…
08-02 11:20:21	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	19¢	$2	0x0ffb13…
08-02 11:20:18	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	57	20¢	$11	0xa6fb42…
08-01 15:36:24	Natural Disaster in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0x76de3e…
08-01 15:02:18	Natural Disaster in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0x20a17e…
08-01 14:47:08	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x42abbe…
07-30 22:44:12	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	400	21¢	$84	0x0b1a54…
07-30 14:50:42	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,346	13¢	$305	0xf1b0bd…
07-30 06:52:18	will ethereum dip to 1800 in july 2026 from july 14	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x9d367b…
07-30 04:03:26	will ethereum dip to 1800 in july 2026 from july 14	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x032158…
07-30 03:54:24	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	44	22¢	$10	0x5fe5ec…
07-30 03:48:35	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,346	11¢	$148	0x8efb4d…
07-28 01:46:04	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0x47e2dd…
07-27 08:32:07	will ethereum dip to 1800 in july 2026 from july 14	No	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0xb84bb7…
07-25 17:31:18	ufc mag1 bog1 2026 07 25	Magomed Ankalaev	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xbb2f24…
07-24 07:46:19	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0x052a1a…
07-21 19:39:33	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xdd62b7…
07-20 07:45:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	28¢	$140	0x343310…
07-19 12:07:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	222	59¢	$132	0x3540c5…
07-19 09:57:34	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	346	8¢	$28	0x1543fe…
07-19 06:55:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	30¢	$90	0x022a89…
07-17 06:45:33	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x68e4fa…
07-17 05:32:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x5713f6…
07-16 17:10:23	NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	8¢	$40	0x88685d…
07-16 05:16:16	NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	SELL	350	8¢	$28	0x615518…
07-15 20:04:47	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	154	20¢	$31	0x9288a8…
07-15 19:43:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	600	30¢	$180	0xe494f3…
07-15 19:39:55	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	150	30¢	$45	0x2ac6f6…
07-15 19:35:43	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	379	20¢	$76	0xfce9bb…
07-15 19:33:58	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	11¢	$2	0x28daf8…
07-14 13:36:58	NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	SELL	398	7¢	$28	0x8b7a2d…
07-14 09:22:34	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	88	10¢	$9	0x2db316…
07-13 21:57:52	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	250	26¢	$65	0xe4d58e…
07-13 20:51:32	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x659509…
07-13 19:46:25	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	17¢	$25	0xe2444a…
07-12 22:47:29	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	28¢	$56	0x55eaf0…
07-12 16:38:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	185	17¢	$31	0x687b97…
07-12 15:38:19	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0x8ef267…
07-12 14:34:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	376	17¢	$64	0xe8c5eb…
07-12 14:18:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	329	17¢	$56	0x39abc3…
07-12 14:16:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	264	17¢	$45	0x0c9d55…
07-12 14:10:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	450	17¢	$76	0x12fa4c…
07-12 13:51:37	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	11	21¢	$2	0xec7eec…
07-12 11:18:11	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	12	21¢	$3	0x124d46…
07-12 10:16:08	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	13	21¢	$3	0xf8a472…
07-12 10:12:22	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	11	21¢	$2	0x800f0e…
07-12 09:27:34	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	60	46¢	$27	0x4dc976…
07-12 09:25:35	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x387851…
07-12 09:21:02	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	60	46¢	$27	0x54ee4e…
07-12 09:10:19	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	125	46¢	$58	0x4245d0…
07-11 22:58:58	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	SELL	45	42¢	$19	0x0d207c…
07-11 22:23:17	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	SELL	45	38¢	$17	0x50df3e…
07-11 21:46:47	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	70	75¢	$52	0x62c72e…
07-11 21:44:40	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	450	16¢	$72	0x63f718…
07-11 17:27:44	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	90	36¢	$32	0x8624d7…
07-11 07:48:05	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	13	41¢	$5	0xf37f15…
07-11 07:45:40	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x4bd9a0…