Realized P&L
+$9.47K
Unrealized P&L
+$144
Hit rate
56.9%
Resolved
5,986
Trades
112,538
lifetime
Volume
$2.58M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$23
Open exposure
$2.43K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-05 23:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 282 days
Categories
Other
68% 39% +$7,851
Politics
17% 47% +$3,104
Sports
9% 42% -$735
Crypto
4% 33% -$474
Tech
2% 32% -$791
Pop-Culture
0% 41% +$513
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 407 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes -1,248 -$167 69¢ $-864 -$697 10-29 20:09
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections? No +269 $230 98¢ $264 +$34 10-05 08:01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 10%-15%? Yes +290 $82 84¢ $242 +$160 11-04 05:15
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No -288 -$422 70¢ $-203 +$219 11-04 20:14
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +135 $45 100¢ $135 +$90 05-11 15:51
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No -121 -$110 97¢ $-117 -$7 04-28 13:54
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? No +222 $80 46¢ $101 +$22 10-05 17:01
Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections? No +77 $74 99¢ $76 +$2 10-04 21:01
Will the Bank of Japan increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? No +84 $49 60¢ $50 +$1 11-02 13:37
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes -1,250 -$290 4¢ $-50 +$240 07-20 09:52
Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch? Yes +100 $42 43¢ $43 +$1 10-20 07:55
will missouri enact a data center moratorium by june 30 2027 Yes +300 $87 14¢ $42 -$45 09-30 07:17
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +99 $44 35¢ $35 -$9 10-20 02:46
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026? Yes +88 $49 31¢ $27 -$22 11-02 13:07
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? Yes +299 $67 6¢ $19 -$48 05-06 04:43
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? Yes +134 $18 14¢ $19 +$1 11-03 08:54
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes -296 -$207 6¢ $-19 +$187 09-24 13:07
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027? Yes -322 -$58 6¢ $-19 +$39 05-23 22:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes +423 $102 4¢ $15 -$87 08-31 11:36
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes -519 -$62 3¢ $-15 +$47 07-18 20:47
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes -472 -$82 3¢ $-13 +$69 05-25 13:12
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes +19 -$16 54¢ $10 +$26 10-05 13:12
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes +255 $53 3¢ $8 -$44 11-03 17:26
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 in November? Yes +85 $5 9¢ $7 +$2 11-03 04:28
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026? Yes +299 $79 2¢ $7 -$72 11-03 07:34
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes -172 -$4 3¢ $-6 -$2 10-20 15:44
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes -90 -$68 6¢ $-5 +$63 10-31 13:27
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026? Yes +81 $31 6¢ $5 -$26 11-01 19:28
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Yes -149 -$5 3¢ $-4 +$1 08-03 08:54
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No +72 $5 5¢ $3 -$2 11-02 02:27