Strong-Announcement-Rod — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$249

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

92.9%

Resolved

6,385

Trades

7,724

lifetime

Volume

$106.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$239

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 10-29 12:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 179 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 91% -$256

Other

34% 98% +$10

Politics

5% 0% -$3

Tech

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 97 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$180	92¢	$185	+$5	10-26 08:42
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	+50	$46	92¢	$46	$0	10-26 10:20
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	No	+10	$10	83¢	$8	-$2	10-28 08:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?	4	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	10-29 13:53
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	3	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-27 11:31
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	7	$695	400	400	+0	open	—	10-23 22:04
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	2	$526	300	300	+0	open	—	10-22 15:05
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	4	$525	282	282	+0	open	—	10-26 15:18
Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	3	$468	300	200	+100	open	—	10-29 13:13
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	4	$425	240	240	+0	open	—	10-19 10:17
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	6	$397	220	220	+0	open	—	10-23 19:49
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	4	$392	400	400	+0	open	—	10-24 14:34
Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	5	$384	272	272	+0	open	—	10-26 16:23
Michigan Senate favorite on November 2?	2	$376	200	200	+0	open	—	10-23 02:16
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	4	$374	200	200	+0	open	—	10-22 00:23
Yoon out of custody before 2027?	2	$370	200	200	+0	open	—	10-25 23:39
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	8	$362	200	200	+0	open	—	10-26 11:49
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	2	$362	200	200	+0	open	—	10-29 05:16
Will Olivia Rodrigo perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	5	$361	200	200	+0	open	—	10-20 17:13
Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	3	$360	200	200	+0	open	—	10-21 19:07
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	3	$354	200	200	+0	open	—	10-24 13:11
Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	4	$350	200	200	+0	open	—	10-26 11:31
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	2	$331	178	178	+0	open	—	10-19 11:14
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	3	$329	175	175	+0	open	—	10-20 17:30
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	3	$316	170	170	+0	open	—	10-26 21:50
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?	3	$288	153	153	+0	open	—	10-24 11:43
US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	5	$282	175	175	+0	Yes	-$30	10-24 18:31
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	10	$277	150	150	+0	open	—	10-26 06:22
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	5	$273	150	150	+0	open	—	10-26 23:31
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?	3	$268	150	150	+0	open	—	10-25 17:17
Will "Josephine" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	4	$264	150	150	+0	open	—	10-26 09:43
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$242	135	135	+0	open	—	10-23 19:37
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	2	$226	120	120	+0	open	—	10-23 18:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:53:49	France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	800	96¢	$766	0xc23236…
10-29 13:53:31	France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	686	96¢	$657	0x7f62df…
10-29 13:53:31	France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	112	96¢	$108	0x56c1c1…
10-29 13:53:28	France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb8da95…
10-29 13:52:32	Will the Dallas Stars record 90+ points?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x1f0f1f…
10-29 13:52:23	Will the Dallas Stars record 90+ points?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xc01d54…
10-29 13:13:58	Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x3bf267…
10-29 12:07:31	Will the Colorado Avalanche make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0x5e2885…
10-29 12:07:17	Will the Colorado Avalanche make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x34252c…
10-29 08:35:37	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	No	SELL	89	3¢	$3	0xe5f549…
10-29 08:35:37	Will Huang Shih-chieh win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	38	2¢	$1	0x1e2889…
10-29 08:35:10	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	No	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0xd2baae…
10-29 08:35:10	Will Huang Shih-chieh win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0x421c99…
10-29 08:34:50	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x5ccb0e…
10-29 08:34:49	Will Huang Shih-chieh win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x65f451…
10-29 05:16:05	Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0x48a84d…
10-29 05:15:52	Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xb9774d…
10-29 03:22:50	Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x7d1695…
10-29 03:22:38	Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0xeb18ae…
10-29 03:22:38	Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?	Yes	BUY	16	8¢	$1	0x7ca21b…
10-29 02:53:55	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	No	SELL	300	5¢	$15	0x6a3daa…
10-29 02:53:47	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	No	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0xaefc67…
10-28 23:51:50	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x1ff386…
10-28 23:51:41	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x31eae2…
10-28 23:06:08	Will November be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0xff70a5…
10-28 23:05:59	Will November be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x1a2700…
10-28 22:42:47	Will Anthropic raise between $75B and $85B in its IPO?	Yes	SELL	48	6¢	$3	0xbe3a52…
10-28 22:42:17	Will Anthropic raise between $75B and $85B in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	48	7¢	$3	0x637b93…
10-28 18:00:32	Will Sporting CP win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x536092…
10-28 18:00:13	Will Sporting CP win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x1c0aa7…
10-28 17:29:01	Will Nayib Bukele win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?	No	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0x612401…
10-28 17:28:32	Will Nayib Bukele win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?	No	BUY	16	3¢	$0	0xc39f16…
10-28 16:51:46	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0xdd03f7…
10-28 16:51:29	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x6cba27…
10-28 16:29:29	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	33	85¢	$28	0xc0248b…
10-28 16:29:04	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x89fd11…
10-28 16:28:13	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xafdaeb…
10-28 16:28:13	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	35	89¢	$31	0x1958e6…
10-28 16:28:08	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x955b1e…
10-28 08:46:38	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xe0298a…
10-28 08:46:26	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x4684da…
10-28 08:41:26	Will Daniel Jones finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most Total QBR among qualified players?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x5aefe7…
10-28 08:41:01	Will Daniel Jones finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most Total QBR among qualified players?	Yes	SELL	23	5¢	$1	0x967d28…
10-28 08:40:58	Will Daniel Jones finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most Total QBR among qualified players?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x5d231b…
10-28 08:40:53	Will Daniel Jones finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most Total QBR among qualified players?	Yes	BUY	23	5¢	$1	0x24cb06…
10-28 07:14:31	Will AP call US House control by November 13, 11:59 PM?	Yes	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x0b2fa7…
10-28 07:14:23	Will AP call US House control by November 13, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x10aa71…
10-28 04:01:10	Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	29	92¢	$27	0xb8b67c…
10-28 04:00:44	Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	21	92¢	$19	0xee387e…
10-28 04:00:32	Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x86b613…
10-28 03:42:15	Will Ben Carroll be the next Premier of Victoria?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xc72263…
10-28 03:42:00	Will Ben Carroll be the next Premier of Victoria?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x2a67c2…
10-28 03:41:37	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0x3b9e92…
10-28 03:41:22	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x97f37b…
10-28 01:37:57	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	6¢	$4	0xc17021…
10-28 01:37:41	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0xd3de9e…
10-27 22:54:05	Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0x9a4fd5…
10-27 22:53:53	Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x0ad719…
10-27 22:53:39	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xfdf570…
10-27 22:53:29	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x91e5be…
10-27 22:07:39	Will Indiana Hoosiers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x9b6e28…
10-27 22:07:30	Will Indiana Hoosiers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x7baba5…
10-27 20:31:39	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	5¢	$26	0xe58d49…
10-27 20:31:26	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$32	0xb47560…
10-27 19:51:27	France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x1cfc53…
10-27 19:36:00	French election called by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0xc2aff9…
10-27 19:35:48	French election called by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x2e1f98…
10-27 19:29:56	Will Maura Higgins win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xee9b10…
10-27 19:29:39	Will Maura Higgins win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xbffb72…
10-27 19:15:26	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x6d5865…
10-27 18:43:20	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x8334f5…
10-27 18:43:12	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	Yes	BUY	28	8¢	$2	0x04415e…
10-27 18:43:09	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	Yes	BUY	72	8¢	$5	0x9dcd1f…
10-27 18:37:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xa2bc02…
10-27 18:37:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x1180d0…
10-27 18:35:27	Will Julianne Moore be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	19	94¢	$18	0x30ecad…
10-27 18:35:08	Will Julianne Moore be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0x740706…
10-27 16:36:38	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x636434…
10-27 16:36:26	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xd5932e…
10-27 15:09:32	Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x27e0ba…
10-27 15:09:05	Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0xdd351c…
10-27 15:08:38	Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x25f2b5…
10-27 15:08:12	Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xe36b65…
10-27 15:07:57	Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xcd0ff8…
10-27 13:15:12	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 90?	Yes	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x484aff…
10-27 13:14:51	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 90?	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x1c8258…
10-27 12:48:35	Will the Carolina Hurricanes make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xf5937e…
10-27 12:48:23	Will the Carolina Hurricanes make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xff8307…
10-27 12:06:36	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	No	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0x4ee97e…
10-27 12:06:17	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xc57660…
10-27 11:31:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	SELL	600	89¢	$534	0xbca318…
10-27 11:31:21	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	523	90¢	$470	0x53777d…
10-27 11:31:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	77	90¢	$70	0xf7fe22…
10-27 10:32:57	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	87¢	$46	0x7a0f4f…
10-27 08:56:41	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x849365…
10-27 08:56:14	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xf36af2…
10-27 08:28:39	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	84¢	$23	0x9f1ed5…
10-27 08:28:21	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	89¢	$71	0x5c4ab6…
10-27 08:03:57	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0xb90709…
10-27 08:03:32	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0xf52c9f…