Realized P&L (90d)
+$248
Unrealized P&L
+$110
Hit rate
71.1%
Resolved (90d)
178
Trades (90d)
931
7,368 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$6.76K
$27.8K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$605
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-24
last 10-29 20:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 189 days
Categories
Other
56% 49% +$140
Politics
30% 49% -$16
Tech
8% 67% +$81
Crypto
7% 61% +$32
Pop-Culture
0% 57% +$5
Sports
0% 50% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will over 64 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? No +100 $90 91¢ $91 +$1 09-16 14:57
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by December 31, 2027? Yes +60 $42 67¢ $40 -$2 10-18 18:58
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31? No +35 $24 99¢ $35 +$11 09-10 20:34
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No +31 $30 96¢ $30 $0 09-13 16:24
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.5T? No +30 $18 99¢ $30 +$12 10-29 20:40
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +30 $20 99¢ $30 +$10 10-14 09:25
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? No +30 $4 89¢ $27 +$23 09-30 21:29
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? No +30 $10 89¢ $27 +$17 10-08 04:21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? No +30 $7 86¢ $26 +$19 10-29 17:48
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by December 31? No +30 $18 85¢ $26 +$8 10-12 04:03
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? No +25 $24 98¢ $25 +$0 09-13 20:34
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes +37 $18 56¢ $21 +$3 10-29 20:42
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by September 30, 2027? No +60 $17 34¢ $20 +$4 10-18 03:23
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? No -20 -$21 100¢ $-20 +$1 09-20 10:49
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -20 -$17 98¢ $-20 -$2 05-16 15:20
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes -20 -$6 94¢ $-19 -$13 09-20 10:49
Will Ethereum hit $4k by June 30, 2027? No +20 $9 85¢ $17 +$8 09-20 11:17
Will over 60 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? No +17 $11 94¢ $16 +$6 09-15 16:56
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes +30 $15 46¢ $14 -$1 10-01 03:08
Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027? Yes +33 $15 42¢ $14 -$1 09-20 11:17
Will Ethereum hit $4k by March 31, 2027? No +13 $6 88¢ $11 +$6 09-19 19:06
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +10 $8 90¢ $9 +$1 07-15 22:15
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? No -10 -$5 58¢ $-6 -$1 04-28 17:40
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No +5 $3 98¢ $5 +$2 04-30 07:56
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -5 -$4 97¢ $-5 -$1 05-16 17:05
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? No -5 -$4 97¢ $-5 -$1 04-28 17:44
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -5 -$4 96¢ $-5 -$1 04-28 16:32
Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026? No +5 $3 96¢ $5 +$2 09-08 21:37
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? No +5 $3 95¢ $5 +$2 05-03 23:19
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +5 $4 95¢ $5 +$1 10-13 20:59