Personal-Bake 0x12d6cc…2cf2a8 Create alert
whale hot 3W streak
3Unusual bets: 2 positions →
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Realized P&L (30d)
+$70.4K
Unrealized P&L
+$59.7K
Hit rate
76.2%
Resolved (30d)
115
Trades (30d)
11,938
89,724 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$6.12M
$34.8M lifetime
Avg / trade
$387
Open exposure
$1.25M
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-14 19:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 166 days
Categories
Politics
76% 77% +$412,058
Other
22% 79% +$67,905
Crypto
1% 64% +$3,152
Sports
0% 86% +$1,622
Tech
0% 83% +$10
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk • peak 1607 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +187,185 $186,668 100¢ $186.7K +$49 11-13 19:06
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +186,939 $185,775 100¢ $186.3K +$510 11-13 19:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +164,149 $156,755 97¢ $158.5K +$1,731 11-14 10:28
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +172,020 $157,987 91¢ $157.0K -$1,019 11-14 14:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +81,262 $56,306 99¢ $80.1K +$23,778 11-14 20:07
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -53,081 -$46,577 94¢ $-49790 -$3,213 11-08 03:04
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +48,395 $32,359 92¢ $44.8K +$12,406 11-13 21:44
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +45,976 $28,992 88¢ $40.2K +$11,237 11-12 22:40
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? Yes +51,885 $26,183 78¢ $40.2K +$14,028 11-13 23:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +43,637 $24,008 79¢ $34.5K +$10,487 11-09 21:37
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +96,438 $52,783 32¢ $30.4K -$22,405 11-14 19:44
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +27,628 $23,283 97¢ $26.7K +$3,393 11-02 22:45
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +38,596 $15,833 68¢ $26.4K +$10,605 11-07 00:23
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No +24,490 $21,081 99¢ $24.2K +$3,127 11-13 22:21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +24,177 $16,221 94¢ $22.6K +$6,384 11-12 21:48
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +19,420 $15,637 92¢ $18.0K +$2,327 11-13 21:05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +125,753 $12,163 14¢ $17.0K +$4,814 11-13 22:38
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +19,455 $1,666 66¢ $12.7K +$11,077 09-17 01:24
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +57,346 $21,721 21¢ $12.0K -$9,707 11-14 14:13
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +12,399 $10,374 94¢ $11.6K +$1,219 11-03 08:44
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +12,390 $9,301 94¢ $11.6K +$2,283 11-09 21:37
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +13,193 $11,812 86¢ $11.4K -$400 11-14 10:02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 13? Yes +9,220 $8,345 100¢ $9.2K +$852 11-14 20:02
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +21,531 $18,050 35¢ $7.5K -$10,536 09-17 12:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +57,668 $20,194 12¢ $7.2K -$12,986 11-13 22:10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -6,165 -$5,112 97¢ $-6005 -$893 09-16 18:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +6,307 $1,610 94¢ $6.0K +$4,350 11-09 20:14
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 18? Yes +5,219 $4,803 97¢ $5.1K +$276 11-14 19:54
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +4,125 $4,034 98¢ $4.0K +$6 11-04 22:39
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? No +15,423 $7,521 22¢ $3.5K -$4,051 11-09 13:54