Oblong-Constitution — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$155

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

46.4%

Resolved

267

Trades

902

lifetime

Volume

$1.99K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 09-17 06:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Other

50% 46% -$49

Politics

34% 32% -$37

Sports

15% 31% -$66

Tech

1% 50% -$1

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$3

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+31	$0	1¢	$0	$0	06-28 08:48
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+17	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	06-10 09:58
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	+4	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	06-05 01:51
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+0	$1	19¢	$0	-$1	06-10 09:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	15	$45	52	52	+0	Yes	+$1	06-17 22:30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	15	$39	45	45	+0	No	+$0	06-30 07:58
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	13	$30	30	30	+0	Yes	-$2	06-12 11:34
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	14	$24	87	87	+0	Yes	-$1	06-13 05:28
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca	4	$24	25	15	+10	Joao Fonseca	+$6	06-01 03:13
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	16	$23	89	89	+0	No	-$2	06-19 09:27
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	7	$22	20	20	+0	Yes	-$2	06-12 14:11
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 30	9	$21	22	22	+0	Yes	+$1	06-04 01:42
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	11	$20	53	53	+0	No	-$4	06-19 00:32
will wti crude oil wti hit low 85 in june 342	6	$19	35	35	+0	Yes	+$0	06-11 12:41
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	7	$19	23	23	+0	Yes	+$8	06-19 17:07
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros	4	$19	19	9	+10	Milwaukee Brewers	$0	06-01 03:13
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	11	$18	143	143	+0	No	+$2	06-13 02:40
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	9	$17	24	24	+0	Yes	$0	06-13 07:01
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	5	$16	13	13	+0	No	-$2	06-12 11:34
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda	6	$16	20	20	+0	Zachary Svajda	+$1	05-30 12:04
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	6	$16	17	17	+0	open	—	06-30 08:16
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	6	$16	17	17	+0	Yes	-$1	06-04 22:12
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	7	$15	19	19	+0	Yes	-$4	06-19 13:34
will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	4	$15	10	10	+0	No	+$3	06-30 07:57
will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	14	$15	36	36	+0	No	-$3	06-12 12:53
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	4	$15	54	54	+0	Yes	+$3	06-11 12:36
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	3	$15	10	10	+0	Yes	+$5	06-01 03:13
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	7	$14	53	53	+0	Yes	+$0	06-26 03:07
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	6	$14	25	25	+0	No	-$1	06-09 22:41
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	5	$14	21	6	+15	Pittsburgh Pirates	-$1	06-01 03:13
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	3	$13	10	10	+0	No	+$2	06-09 16:43
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	3	$13	10	10	+0	No	+$7	06-30 07:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	3	$13	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	06-11 12:36
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	4	$13	9	9	+0	GamerLegion	+$1	06-02 13:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-17 06:26:27	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x4be8a0…
06-30 08:16:14	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xc9d548…
06-30 07:58:32	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xbea325…
06-30 07:58:28	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd2d4c8…
06-30 07:58:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x853459…
06-30 07:58:22	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x848c1a…
06-30 07:58:17	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xf5fa2d…
06-30 07:58:16	will disclosure day be nominated for best picture at the 99th academy awards	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x4e5399…
06-30 07:58:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x1ce76d…
06-30 07:58:10	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0xb82c96…
06-30 07:58:07	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	No	SELL	8	68¢	$5	0x67b764…
06-30 07:58:05	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0x92734d…
06-30 07:58:02	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0xbaa3b4…
06-30 07:57:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	72¢	$6	0x004fac…
06-30 07:57:56	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x24c727…
06-30 07:57:55	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0x039c5f…
06-30 07:57:52	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd18951…
06-30 07:57:44	Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	Yes	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0x0a131f…
06-30 07:57:41	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	13	42¢	$5	0x83ae6a…
06-30 07:57:38	Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	38¢	$5	0xe803ca…
06-30 07:57:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	SELL	14	18¢	$3	0x08c34a…
06-30 07:57:34	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	15	35¢	$5	0xe4f126…
06-30 07:57:28	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	53¢	$8	0x7d865b…
06-30 07:57:26	Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	Yes	SELL	18	23¢	$4	0xbb5648…
06-30 07:57:23	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x02cf1b…
06-30 07:57:16	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	57	9¢	$5	0xf2b67f…
06-29 19:07:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x16e8eb…
06-29 18:03:38	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0x8bce0a…
06-29 18:03:38	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	SELL	0	38¢	$0	0x0bdc72…
06-29 15:47:59	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	13¢	$3	0xa05e79…
06-29 13:42:08	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x2ad70a…
06-29 13:27:53	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xde7e5e…
06-29 01:33:37	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	38	11¢	$4	0x7e0ead…
06-28 22:05:14	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xae0a6e…
06-28 08:48:11	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x27ae32…
06-28 08:48:05	Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$0	0x441dad…
06-28 08:35:07	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0xa746e6…
06-27 09:52:46	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x3e9efd…
06-27 09:39:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x3e25c2…
06-27 09:39:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x668756…
06-27 09:27:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x763c20…
06-26 15:03:05	Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc8d9a1…
06-26 14:50:08	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xea5d71…
06-26 14:25:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xb5642e…
06-26 14:10:42	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x80b675…
06-26 14:05:12	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0x547b9b…
06-26 12:36:14	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xc2e199…
06-26 12:10:16	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xfeef65…
06-26 12:09:53	Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x3bacdd…
06-26 11:44:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x94bb71…
06-26 08:22:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x95a5ff…
06-26 08:13:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x552be7…
06-26 07:44:41	Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x41eef6…
06-26 07:32:13	Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x8499b0…
06-26 03:20:41	Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x7d1967…
06-26 03:07:55	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0xa3c8fd…
06-26 03:07:43	Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xa41c7f…
06-26 02:55:01	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0x942912…
06-25 23:02:25	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x041761…
06-25 22:50:20	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x804c0b…
06-25 21:59:47	Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x1e814b…
06-24 18:02:50	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x334f40…
06-24 16:45:46	SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0x0624d6…
06-24 16:32:58	SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xb45d50…
06-23 00:52:49	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x2281e3…
06-22 16:47:44	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xe03458…
06-22 16:31:16	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x4b4a52…
06-22 15:02:37	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xd7cdd9…
06-22 15:02:10	spy up or down on june 22 2026	Down	SELL	2	66¢	$2	0xa0b33c…
06-22 14:15:20	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0x36ebb3…
06-22 13:29:35	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0xae1ab8…
06-22 12:49:37	spy up or down on june 22 2026	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x363684…
06-22 11:00:10	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	99	1¢	$1	0xfefe66…
06-22 10:47:58	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x0380a8…
06-22 10:47:49	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xb2376e…
06-21 18:25:23	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xdae991…
06-21 18:01:32	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x8edcd5…
06-21 17:49:58	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x0fa6be…
06-21 13:44:37	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	60¢	$3	0xe7a31e…
06-21 13:32:34	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x215db3…
06-20 14:15:31	Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x21c474…
06-20 11:10:22	SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf4a38e…
06-20 10:35:08	starmer out by june 26 2026	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x764458…
06-20 10:01:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x55e9a2…
06-20 09:49:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x00924a…
06-20 09:49:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x83776f…
06-20 09:25:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0x3daa54…
06-20 00:46:52	starmer out by august 31 2026 593 871	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8c585f…
06-19 21:41:56	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xe0981d…
06-19 21:29:11	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0xb246d7…
06-19 21:04:32	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6ebbb3…
06-19 21:04:32	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x590604…
06-19 20:40:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x58f4fe…
06-19 20:04:20	Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x5e255c…
06-19 19:14:55	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x51e574…
06-19 18:14:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x13ecca…
06-19 17:49:01	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x8af366…
06-19 17:35:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x75c1bc…
06-19 17:35:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x4f5b67…
06-19 17:07:41	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0xdd8c78…