Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.5%

Resolved

Trades

1,109

lifetime

Volume

$146.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$132

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-14 21:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

49% — —

Politics

44% 33% +$7

Tech

6% — —

Crypto

1% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 162 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US strike Somalia next?	43	$20.7K	10,997	10,997	+0	open	—	02-04 03:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	15	$9.9K	5,724	5,724	+0	open	—	05-08 08:37
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	6	$9.6K	5,537	5,537	+0	open	—	01-31 14:41
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	11	$7.0K	7,247	7,247	+0	open	—	02-20 09:37
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	9	$4.6K	6,800	6,800	+0	open	—	03-02 07:47
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	38	$4.5K	4,840	3,940	+900	open	—	02-27 15:00
will google gemini 3 score at least 70 on the frontiermath benchmark	16	$4.0K	2,118	2,118	+0	open	—	01-13 16:16
will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on the frontiermath benchmark	12	$3.9K	2,524	2,524	+0	open	—	01-27 00:23
Will the US strike Somalia next?	2	$3.7K	1,838	1,838	+0	open	—	01-27 11:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$3.6K	700	3,500	-2,800	open	—	06-15 20:32
will google gemini 3 score at least 60 on the frontiermath benchmark by	9	$3.4K	1,994	1,885	+109	open	—	01-22 13:05
Will the US strike Somalia next?	27	$3.4K	3,568	0	+3,568	open	—	01-29 17:07
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	43	$3.3K	8,195	8,195	+0	open	—	02-24 19:56
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$3.1K	1,820	1,820	+0	open	—	04-07 11:17
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	54	$2.7K	2,056	2,056	+0	open	—	02-16 12:26
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	6	$2.4K	1,672	1,672	+0	open	—	01-23 08:36
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	13	$2.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	03-04 13:11
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	3	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-03 08:52
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	6	$1.8K	1,253	1,253	+0	open	—	02-16 15:00
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	7	$1.8K	3,753	0	+3,753	open	—	02-19 10:11
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	3	$1.8K	2,200	1,000	+1,200	open	—	02-26 16:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-30 08:28
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	24	$1.6K	3,541	0	+3,541	open	—	06-17 23:12
will claude 5 not be released by february 28 2026	5	$1.6K	1,107	1,107	+0	open	—	02-19 09:43
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$1.5K	3,000	1,500	+1,500	open	—	06-15 11:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$1.5K	1,700	1,700	+0	open	—	05-11 10:48
will google gemini 3 score at least 50 on the frontiermath benchmark	12	$1.3K	1,969	0	+1,969	open	—	01-19 19:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$1.3K	1,400	0	+1,400	open	—	07-07 06:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	3	$1.2K	800	800	+0	open	—	08-12 09:03
gpt 5pt5 released by april 15 2026	30	$1.2K	2,415	2,518	-103	open	—	04-15 14:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 21:42:36	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	774	79¢	$612	0x142b33…
08-14 15:54:12	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	79¢	$5	0x5bb416…
08-14 12:51:33	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x0ac5b2…
08-14 12:48:52	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0xcd5b0c…
08-14 05:04:31	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	132	79¢	$104	0x841a26…
08-13 16:57:09	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xb09107…
08-13 16:35:43	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x1136c4…
08-13 16:35:39	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$0	0x588917…
08-13 14:40:52	Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x3dd433…
08-12 11:39:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	148	1¢	$2	0x142f85…
08-12 11:10:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	144	1¢	$2	0x64f8b5…
08-12 10:25:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xab49fb…
08-12 09:03:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	800	81¢	$648	0x728351…
08-12 08:17:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	508	1¢	$6	0x2333a9…
08-12 07:46:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	2,383	2¢	$41	0x65842f…
08-12 07:40:24	Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Yes	BUY	214	24¢	$51	0xac76eb…
08-11 07:08:55	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0xc82fd9…
08-10 11:42:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	400	46¢	$184	0x301f74…
08-10 11:40:39	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0xff763d…
08-10 11:39:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	400	94¢	$376	0x6cf877…
08-03 08:26:39	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	800	4¢	$36	0xa0f7f8…
07-30 12:11:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x7274d8…
07-30 12:09:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	400	56¢	$224	0x8e802e…
07-30 12:08:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	600	75¢	$450	0x81a57e…
07-28 05:29:25	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	400	100¢	$400	0xb078b8…
07-24 17:47:24	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	Yes	BUY	273	4¢	$11	0x03a685…
07-24 17:12:30	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x8a0b47…
07-24 17:02:15	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0xdc2d52…
07-24 17:01:34	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	Yes	BUY	52	4¢	$2	0x2a36cf…
07-23 09:30:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x1f05fb…
07-23 09:29:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0x84b4d8…
07-23 09:21:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	BUY	44	71¢	$31	0x428e85…
07-23 09:18:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	BUY	164	89¢	$146	0x8c7238…
07-23 09:14:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	BUY	13	71¢	$9	0x3313d9…
07-23 09:13:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x4abcf3…
07-23 09:13:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	BUY	36	89¢	$32	0xaf1c53…
07-23 09:12:40	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xe38454…
07-23 05:56:30	will wti dip to 75 in july 2026 from july 20	Yes	BUY	200	14¢	$28	0xa85511…
07-23 05:42:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	578	4¢	$23	0x1b7ef4…
07-23 05:30:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x61e3b6…
07-23 05:14:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xde18ae…
07-23 04:59:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x5b71c9…
07-23 04:35:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x4aa2eb…
07-23 04:35:03	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	400	22¢	$88	0x2e194b…
07-16 07:25:58	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	SELL	400	3¢	$12	0xfed58f…
07-15 21:45:35	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	206	10¢	$21	0x8d95b6…
07-15 07:53:40	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x5814e3…
07-14 21:08:04	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x1acaeb…
07-14 11:21:44	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x389560…
07-14 11:21:41	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0xfb8309…
07-13 19:28:37	Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	SELL	120	1¢	$1	0x08ffdd…
07-13 19:28:31	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	SELL	180	1¢	$2	0xabe7e1…
07-13 19:28:28	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x094153…
07-13 19:28:23	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	SELL	400	0¢	$0	0x092edf…
07-09 06:52:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	730	1¢	$7	0x69d47e…
07-08 13:47:16	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	Yes	SELL	484	99¢	$477	0xf528a3…
07-07 09:09:14	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$6	0xa710d8…
07-07 06:41:32	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	Yes	BUY	484	79¢	$381	0x22c117…
07-07 06:32:52	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	417	10¢	$42	0x19323d…
07-07 06:28:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,400	93¢	$1,302	0x3f3b27…
07-01 07:54:08	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0xa07422…
06-30 08:16:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	170	46¢	$78	0xc3b7c9…
06-30 07:23:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7f61fe…
06-30 07:05:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x6ba0e1…
06-30 06:50:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	88	37¢	$32	0x6e39ed…
06-30 06:50:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	45	37¢	$17	0xe57afc…
06-30 06:48:10	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	40¢	$79	0xb8882a…
06-30 06:48:08	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	469	39¢	$183	0x1b6bde…
06-30 06:47:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	38	37¢	$14	0x389316…
06-30 06:46:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x766490…
06-30 06:45:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x096bfb…
06-30 06:45:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0xaab881…
06-30 06:43:47	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0xb533ff…
06-30 06:43:02	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x8099b2…
06-30 06:42:35	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	211	38¢	$81	0xce1134…
06-25 16:00:47	Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xb23ad7…
06-18 14:32:38	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	699	5¢	$33	0x1d8397…
06-18 13:57:22	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x1a43cf…
06-18 13:34:07	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	380	3¢	$10	0x241ad9…
06-18 12:27:14	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x400a79…
06-18 03:40:50	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	558	8¢	$47	0x182bb9…
06-18 02:38:35	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$1	0x2bea4a…
06-18 02:00:55	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	83	8¢	$7	0x2e5c4d…
06-18 01:36:25	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	153	9¢	$13	0xd2a9dd…
06-17 23:12:17	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	115	33¢	$38	0x2f36ff…
06-17 23:09:50	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xadac7f…
06-17 22:34:04	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	80	33¢	$26	0xbcc03a…
06-17 22:33:20	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0x405e90…
06-17 22:29:23	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0x49d966…
06-17 21:38:11	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x8f134a…
06-17 21:37:55	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x1901e7…
06-17 21:25:37	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	39	33¢	$13	0x57fea6…
06-17 21:08:16	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x6ef897…
06-17 20:49:26	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	54	33¢	$18	0xd62ccb…
06-17 20:49:23	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	27	33¢	$9	0x72b5d6…
06-17 07:11:34	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$6	0xd66d89…
06-16 23:39:56	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x87873f…
06-16 22:48:20	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	59	6¢	$4	0xdc9e59…
06-16 22:13:08	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	299	6¢	$18	0x1d24b0…
06-16 20:21:40	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0xa19b3e…