Calculating-Skirt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.58K

Unrealized P&L

-$360

Hit rate

55.1%

Resolved

Trades

585

lifetime

Volume

$42.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$72

Open exposure

$911

12 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 10-12 20:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Other

66% 40% -$3,620

Politics

30% 50% -$1,775

Tech

5% 50% -$186

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+3,000	$542	12¢	$345	-$197	10-02 20:14
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	+500	$205	32¢	$160	-$45	05-05 08:02
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+1,000	$130	10¢	$95	-$35	09-30 06:50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+130	$49	55¢	$71	+$21	09-30 18:43
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	+1,000	$60	6¢	$55	-$5	09-25 18:06
pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by october 31 20261001003401433	Yes	+100	$9	51¢	$51	+$42	10-02 20:05
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$92	4¢	$44	-$48	10-02 20:24
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	+1,000	$37	4¢	$38	+$0	10-07 14:50
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$32	16¢	$32	+$0	10-07 04:18
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	+200	$50	6¢	$11	-$39	05-05 03:06
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	+100	$55	8¢	$8	-$47	04-28 17:52
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	+110	$10	1¢	$1	-$9	10-03 04:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	2	$3.8K	7,961	0	+7,961	Yes	-$3,784	04-01 01:32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	37	$3.2K	5,270	255	+5,015	No	-$2,868	05-12 15:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$2.2K	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	10-02 20:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$2.1K	1,250	1,250	+0	No	+$149	04-20 01:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.1K	1,367	1,367	+0	No	+$108	05-02 16:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$2.1K	1,392	1,392	-0	No	+$698	07-07 08:08
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	15	$2.0K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	-$2,047	05-10 18:36
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$1.9K	0	2,895	-2,895	Yes	+$1,948	05-04 04:56
will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	3	$1.7K	2,071	0	+2,071	No	+$332	08-18 06:59
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	20	$1.6K	2,505	1,005	+1,500	No	-$422	10-12 04:23
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$1.2K	691	691	+0	No	+$76	04-21 17:07
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	32	$1.2K	6,947	7,043	-96	No	-$513	04-27 02:36
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	5	$1.2K	746	746	+0	Yes	+$153	04-05 14:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$1.1K	662	662	+0	No	+$129	04-23 04:28
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	1	$1.0K	0	1,189	-1,189	No	-$178	05-04 04:55
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	5	$833	577	576	+0	No	+$33	04-23 20:03
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	12	$805	1,465	872	+593	No	+$72	04-29 18:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	11	$684	1,965	442	+1,523	Yes	+$1,122	04-29 03:58
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	7	$665	957	1,000	-43	No	-$5	05-11 16:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	6	$647	3,071	71	+3,000	open	—	10-02 20:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	5	$577	614	359	+255	Yes	+$117	04-27 18:50
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	11	$573	351	604	-253	Yes	-$110	04-29 17:54
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	1	$500	813	0	+813	Yes	-$500	04-01 01:22
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	5	$490	2,500	2,500	+0	No	+$60	10-07 14:47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	4	$386	442	1,270	-828	No	+$173	05-04 05:55
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	24	$385	3,300	3,526	-226	No	-$126	04-27 02:36
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	5	$337	869	1,195	-326	No	+$46	05-04 05:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	5	$286	200	200	+0	No	+$2	05-12 09:18
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	2	$266	305	305	+0	Yes	+$3	09-30 20:27
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	6	$262	458	0	+458	No	+$196	05-05 20:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 20:44:41	will yulia navalnaya win the nobel peace prize in 2027	Yes	BUY	1,647	7¢	$115	0x46126d…
10-12 17:46:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	205	14¢	$29	0x5a0e6a…
10-12 17:43:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	515	14¢	$72	0x32e93f…
10-12 04:23:23	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x151ff1…
10-12 04:21:41	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0xcacfa0…
10-12 04:03:36	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	170	34¢	$58	0x325919…
10-12 03:56:12	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	130	34¢	$44	0x4e7acc…
10-11 20:53:49	Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	15¢	$9	0xf3f301…
10-11 20:50:47	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30?	No	SELL	60	4¢	$2	0xf71bf9…
10-11 20:50:44	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30?	No	SELL	60	4¢	$2	0x674eed…
10-11 20:49:52	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	34	45¢	$15	0x7670b3…
10-11 20:49:35	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	305	44¢	$134	0xb1c947…
10-11 20:49:01	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	300	44¢	$132	0x467c3b…
10-11 20:35:22	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xb43ac9…
10-11 20:34:52	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	355	43¢	$153	0x98a670…
10-11 17:20:54	Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	SELL	110	30¢	$33	0xe4916a…
10-11 17:20:04	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	Yes	SELL	211	14¢	$30	0x52a4e4…
10-11 17:19:34	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	SELL	140	42¢	$59	0x636e45…
10-11 17:19:15	Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	210	7¢	$14	0x9b8aec…
10-11 17:19:00	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0x3a3c9a…
10-11 17:11:15	Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	Yes	SELL	61	48¢	$29	0xb5dc8d…
10-11 16:59:40	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xc76bf6…
10-11 16:57:18	Will SI.gov launch by October 15?	Yes	SELL	120	30¢	$36	0xdfead7…
10-11 16:56:28	us imports russian diesel by october 31	Yes	SELL	675	54¢	$366	0x55b5f7…
10-11 16:55:19	us imports russian diesel by october 31	Yes	SELL	30	57¢	$17	0x3c7c06…
10-11 04:38:35	Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xcc21bc…
10-11 04:38:33	Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	Yes	BUY	21	44¢	$9	0xb30738…
10-11 04:38:33	Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x8306a1…
10-11 04:35:53	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0xb316d0…
10-11 04:35:39	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0x85925c…
10-11 04:34:59	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	305	43¢	$131	0xfcb299…
10-10 20:02:40	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	SELL	300	65¢	$195	0xaf104f…
10-10 18:41:10	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30?	No	BUY	80	9¢	$7	0x4dadc5…
10-10 16:33:48	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x17aa8d…
10-10 16:33:36	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xaa224a…
10-10 16:23:49	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	360	28¢	$101	0x074522…
10-10 16:19:24	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x82635f…
10-10 16:17:13	Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	56	2¢	$1	0xcd047c…
10-10 07:54:24	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x16a4c6…
10-10 07:53:48	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0xdc1d62…
10-10 06:57:33	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0xf1e10c…
10-10 05:21:46	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	186	31¢	$58	0xd5c623…
10-10 05:21:34	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x204a3d…
10-08 21:00:12	America.gov removed by October 31?	Yes	BUY	197	2¢	$5	0x43b81a…
10-08 20:41:50	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	Yes	BUY	181	22¢	$40	0x518214…
10-08 20:04:26	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x6d7df3…
10-08 15:53:36	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	130	30¢	$39	0x9e5f57…
10-08 15:53:15	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	11¢	$55	0xff7b0d…
10-08 05:08:38	Will SI.gov launch by October 15?	Yes	BUY	120	32¢	$38	0x2a3f79…
10-07 21:48:30	Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	No	SELL	91	51¢	$46	0x8d07dd…
10-07 21:33:52	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x61ba30…
10-07 21:30:22	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xf5faad…
10-07 21:30:04	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	36¢	$17	0x466401…
10-07 21:29:39	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	66	11¢	$7	0xbb5776…
10-07 20:40:27	Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	No	SELL	7	53¢	$4	0xebb39e…
10-07 20:37:09	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xe259fe…
10-07 18:26:16	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0x0ccfec…
10-07 18:24:43	will mistral large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xd4c001…
10-07 18:22:31	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xd0656e…
10-07 18:22:13	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	92	16¢	$15	0x17ed35…
10-07 17:30:20	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0x5a75ca…
10-07 17:30:08	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0x988894…
10-07 17:29:20	Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	No	BUY	310	16¢	$50	0x46df40…
10-07 17:26:47	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	108	36¢	$39	0xe5cdf0…
10-07 17:25:34	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xc5872c…
10-07 17:19:04	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0x5e760c…
10-07 17:18:41	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x0c3f68…
10-07 17:18:34	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0xcc2cdd…
10-07 17:18:14	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0x5a0909…
10-07 16:39:32	Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	210	23¢	$48	0x5637f4…
10-07 14:50:43	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$37	0x8478d1…
10-07 14:47:10	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	2,500	11¢	$275	0x45d832…
10-07 04:18:44	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	16¢	$9	0x5dd9e3…
10-07 04:13:32	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xfd126e…
10-07 04:08:51	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	16¢	$3	0x9516ba…
10-07 04:07:44	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	16¢	$19	0x47b6fa…
10-04 18:27:58	israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x6e308c…
10-04 17:14:47	israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0x76938b…
10-04 17:13:47	israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	BUY	1,000	6¢	$60	0x17245c…
10-03 22:27:53	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0xb841c0…
10-03 22:27:53	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	BUY	87	25¢	$22	0xb51da0…
10-03 04:49:15	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xdc4b8a…
10-02 22:15:24	Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?	Yes	BUY	57	31¢	$18	0x72a2a7…
10-02 21:59:23	Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?	Yes	BUY	43	31¢	$13	0x8291a0…
10-02 21:57:53	Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	110	36¢	$40	0x700779…
10-02 20:48:35	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	77	9¢	$7	0x032779…
10-02 20:45:18	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xe5292d…
10-02 20:35:45	Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?	No	BUY	90	11¢	$10	0x47e290…
10-02 20:24:14	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$28	0x085afd…
10-02 20:16:53	US recession by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x57e727…
10-02 20:14:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	760	16¢	$122	0x9da29a…
10-02 20:13:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,400	79¢	$1,106	0x0052f4…
10-02 20:07:41	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x77cc85…
10-02 20:05:06	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by october 31 20261001003401433	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x74ee9d…
10-02 20:03:23	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x643120…
10-02 19:50:53	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	130	47¢	$61	0x5af5e3…
10-02 19:50:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	37¢	$67	0xe7eca2…
10-01 16:02:03	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xa8e151…
10-01 16:01:42	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x03d095…
10-01 05:02:30	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	28¢	$50	0x016014…