Caring-Bolt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$908

Unrealized P&L

-$18

Hit rate

78.3%

Resolved

405

Trades

2,411

lifetime

Volume

$41.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$317

7 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 10-03 02:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 119 days

Categories

Other

55% 65% -$190

Politics

41% 72% +$1,055

Crypto

3% 78% +$67

Sports

1% 67% -$28

Tech

0% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-141	-$99	92¢	$-130	-$31	10-03 02:59
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	-76	-$62	92¢	$-70	-$8	08-20 02:56
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	-53	-$51	98¢	$-52	-$2	06-18 15:20
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	No	-51	-$49	99¢	$-50	$0	09-04 09:55
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-11	-$11	99¢	$-11	-$1	05-25 15:25
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	-41	-$20	7¢	$-3	+$17	09-21 21:38
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	+0	-$7	99¢	$0	+$7	06-22 01:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	249	$1.9K	1,091	1,232	-141	open	—	10-03 02:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	15	$816	1,494	1,349	+145	Yes	+$783	04-07 23:09
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 3?	6	$774	391	391	+0	No	+$3	07-03 08:04
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 11?	10	$660	351	328	+23	No	+$2	08-11 04:00
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	11	$507	1,307	357	+950	Yes	-$43	07-22 12:33
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on July 1?	5	$503	257	257	+0	Yes	+$7	07-01 06:47
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 6?	1	$500	501	0	+501	Yes	+$1	07-06 09:35
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 10?	1	$500	505	0	+505	No	+$5	07-10 02:40
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 20?	5	$488	489	0	+489	No	+$1	07-20 09:21
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	20	$447	308	156	+152	Yes	+$5	04-21 00:02
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 30?	9	$438	222	222	+0	No	+$6	06-30 05:23
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	215	$420	207	234	-27	No	-$3	05-14 22:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$409	926	926	+0	No	+$112	05-23 19:52
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28?	4	$408	206	206	+0	No	+$3	06-28 08:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	16	$408	468	441	+27	Yes	+$8	06-17 15:36
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 28?	23	$403	408	0	+408	No	+$5	05-28 02:50
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	25	$399	876	876	+0	open	—	10-03 02:59
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?	1	$389	390	0	+390	Yes	+$1	07-14 11:33
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 1?	8	$350	182	182	+0	No	+$13	07-01 06:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	17	$329	488	488	+0	Yes	+$151	04-07 23:15
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	13	$327	273	237	+36	Yes	+$10	04-07 02:54
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 2?	1	$325	325	0	+325	No	+$0	07-01 08:48
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 18?	1	$324	324	0	+324	No	+$0	07-17 12:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	12	$319	480	480	+0	No	+$22	06-20 13:44
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	8	$299	278	103	+175	Yes	-$97	04-30 11:26
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 2?	12	$296	158	158	+0	No	+$15	07-02 06:06
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17?	2	$280	150	150	+0	No	+$19	06-17 10:45
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 29?	6	$280	141	141	+0	No	+$2	06-29 08:14
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19?	1	$277	280	0	+280	No	+$4	06-19 00:11
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	8	$269	213	180	+33	No	+$63	08-08 02:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-03 02:59:11	Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0xee2e6f…
10-03 02:59:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	13	84¢	$11	0xe9fad8…
10-03 02:59:11	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	81	6¢	$5	0xe2bdab…
10-03 02:59:11	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xc8c9c4…
10-03 02:59:11	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x929cfd…
10-03 02:59:11	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	22	88¢	$20	0x4ac2be…
10-03 02:59:09	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	29	91¢	$26	0xf77ac9…
10-03 02:59:09	Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	No	SELL	56	88¢	$49	0xe87d4b…
10-03 02:59:09	Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	61	84¢	$51	0xcdf278…
10-03 02:59:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0xcbb665…
10-03 02:59:09	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	49	98¢	$47	0x8fea91…
10-03 02:59:09	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	34¢	$37	0x68fd8a…
10-03 02:59:09	Iran coup attempt by December 31?	No	SELL	48	90¢	$44	0x334bbc…
10-03 02:59:09	NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?	No	SELL	39	95¢	$38	0x1e3299…
10-03 02:59:09	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	52	94¢	$49	0x14d1b7…
10-03 02:59:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	82	80¢	$66	0xe11a3a…
10-03 02:59:08	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	54	96¢	$52	0xd1053e…
10-03 02:59:08	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1,122	8¢	$88	0x517ff4…
10-03 02:58:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	114	86¢	$98	0x6d6406…
10-03 02:58:47	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	108	93¢	$101	0xa8e9b5…
10-03 01:10:48	NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?	No	BUY	39	96¢	$38	0x333b9d…
10-03 01:09:26	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x5ef5bf…
10-02 05:44:56	Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xe500b8…
10-02 01:20:17	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x15305f…
10-01 21:06:41	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	33	75¢	$25	0x5d2ba5…
10-01 21:06:35	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	88¢	$10	0x78ae57…
10-01 10:21:20	will louisiana enact a data center moratorium by june 30 2027	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x7d2cd7…
10-01 10:20:48	Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xd52917…
09-30 19:55:09	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	61¢	$22	0xe5a2b4…
09-30 09:39:35	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x32519e…
09-30 09:03:38	US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xe5d4e8…
09-29 17:20:06	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	SELL	35	69¢	$24	0x0b431f…
09-29 17:02:38	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	SELL	27	73¢	$20	0xa38c6f…
09-29 15:08:45	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xe987e2…
09-29 14:52:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0xc51a53…
09-29 14:51:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x4c79a5…
09-29 14:35:08	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xc780cd…
09-28 21:41:44	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	21	86¢	$18	0xb084e9…
09-28 19:40:05	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0x0ed2b6…
09-28 19:39:41	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0xa801e1…
09-28 19:39:33	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x238996…
09-28 19:39:06	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x04a58c…
09-28 19:39:05	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x051da5…
09-28 19:39:02	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x4622cd…
09-28 19:39:00	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x451357…
09-28 19:38:59	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0xafd902…
09-28 19:38:56	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x37fbfc…
09-28 19:38:53	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0xeb9c45…
09-28 19:38:53	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0xdbbe26…
09-28 19:38:53	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0x5b1c60…
09-28 19:38:53	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	85¢	$16	0x0fa963…
09-28 19:38:53	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0x03962e…
09-28 19:33:47	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	85¢	$27	0x330473…
09-28 17:16:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	85	37¢	$31	0xec0fe5…
09-28 16:46:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	25	85¢	$22	0x4acd9f…
09-28 16:46:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$2	0x916842…
09-28 16:38:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$0	0x256d1a…
09-28 16:36:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	18	84¢	$15	0xb9e7a2…
09-28 16:23:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	37¢	$35	0x4d5c94…
09-28 16:22:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xcb5c44…
09-28 15:11:23	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	105	82¢	$86	0x1cea1a…
09-26 14:05:14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xa38ba7…
09-25 16:03:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x1027b8…
09-24 07:53:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	3	86¢	$3	0xa15204…
09-22 15:21:24	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	29	92¢	$26	0x7adf75…
09-22 10:49:28	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	84¢	$27	0x74d853…
09-22 02:45:09	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	22	85¢	$19	0xcfcd1b…
09-21 21:38:15	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	48¢	$20	0x1ac140…
09-20 09:57:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	130	38¢	$49	0x6ea578…
09-19 16:49:26	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x9dc06b…
09-19 08:36:39	Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	SELL	4,167	1¢	$50	0xf95463…
09-19 02:07:33	Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	BUY	4,167	1¢	$50	0x948d47…
09-17 12:11:15	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x3ab83e…
09-16 13:01:03	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xbfaaa2…
09-16 12:54:39	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x8ecdfe…
09-16 11:16:57	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?	No	SELL	17	96¢	$17	0xbb144a…
09-15 19:39:39	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	31	42¢	$13	0x7de028…
09-15 15:32:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xdbe4c3…
09-15 15:28:22	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	SELL	53	99¢	$53	0x3632ac…
09-15 11:33:39	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x78c129…
09-15 11:19:48	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xc04854…
09-15 11:18:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	92¢	$22	0xb5a7fc…
09-15 10:03:24	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x4d327c…
09-15 09:24:00	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0xcca6a6…
09-15 09:20:34	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	49	92¢	$45	0x35fd48…
09-14 22:02:04	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	21	94¢	$20	0x26715c…
09-14 21:54:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x21595d…
09-14 20:31:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x537527…
09-14 19:15:55	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xe3446d…
09-14 18:01:21	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xbe0df7…
09-14 16:45:39	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x1cc6f5…
09-14 15:27:25	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xe19bff…
09-14 14:13:51	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xc264b4…
09-14 14:11:48	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x0f6706…
09-14 12:52:36	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xac6e83…
09-14 11:36:55	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xaa7f6c…
09-14 10:21:43	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x1760a0…
09-14 09:07:09	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x2c115b…
09-14 07:30:33	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xac469b…
09-14 06:11:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x150c59…