Realized P&L
+$62.1K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.37K
Hit rate
67.1%
Resolved
471
Trades
22,312
lifetime
Volume
$2.13M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$95
Open exposure
$78.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-26 19:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 162 days
Categories
Politics
68% 69% +$41,047
Other
28% 64% +$15,621
Crypto
2% 75% +$4,055
Sports
1% 71% +$1,205
Tech
1% 33% +$176
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$15
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 192 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +15,200 $10,396 72¢ $10.9K +$472 10-26 08:59
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -10,112 -$9,781 94¢ $-9455 +$326 10-21 03:51
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +9,200 $6,448 70¢ $6.4K -$54 10-25 20:22
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -5,623 -$5,398 96¢ $-5398 +$0 09-20 19:56
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +6,200 $4,555 80¢ $5.0K +$436 09-21 10:36
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes +6,800 $4,723 72¢ $4.9K +$177 10-26 20:47
Trump out as President before 2027? No -4,900 -$4,308 96¢ $-4699 -$391 05-11 00:28
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -4,326 -$3,808 96¢ $-4146 -$338 06-14 14:44
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +4,911 $4,107 74¢ $3.6K -$497 10-26 04:58
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -3,400 -$3,186 98¢ $-3334 -$148 05-11 00:29
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No -3,354 -$3,210 96¢ $-3228 -$18 09-21 07:38
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -3,037 -$2,331 86¢ $-2623 -$291 09-22 11:35
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +2,700 $1,687 62¢ $1.7K +$0 10-22 16:59
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +2,600 $1,627 62¢ $1.6K -$2 10-23 02:20
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -1,531 -$1,176 97¢ $-1482 -$306 08-06 06:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? No +2,620 $1,398 55¢ $1.4K +$43 10-26 17:00
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -1,625 -$994 86¢ $-1389 -$395 05-11 00:35
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No -1,334 -$1,141 92¢ $-1224 -$82 10-22 15:58
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +2,500 $1,178 38¢ $963 -$215 10-21 20:07
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes -1,133 -$888 80¢ $-912 -$25 08-16 11:47
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -860 -$777 81¢ $-696 +$81 08-03 16:50
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No -722 -$679 91¢ $-657 +$22 10-21 03:48
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -4,422 -$397 12¢ $-508 -$111 10-11 05:19
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +698 $474 72¢ $503 +$29 10-26 10:49
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No +500 $398 82¢ $412 +$14 10-21 12:33
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +500 $313 76¢ $383 +$70 10-15 11:53
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +1,636 $340 22¢ $368 +$28 10-26 09:56
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +865 $430 40¢ $346 -$84 10-26 14:18
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +974 $454 30¢ $287 -$167 10-25 22:52
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +318 $215 85¢ $269 +$54 10-26 03:04