Plush-Sword — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$53

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

85.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$169

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-22

last 06-01 06:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

46% 60% +$52

Other

37% 50% +$1

Tech

9% — —

Sports

7% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes		+17	$1	0¢	$0	$-1	06-01 06:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$15	33	0	+33	open	—	04-25 15:42
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$12	8	8	+0	No	+$2	05-03 17:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	05-13 07:45
will sp 500 spx hit 6300 low in march 2026	1	$10	34	0	+34	open	—	03-22 21:03
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$10	28	0	+28	open	—	03-22 20:53
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	1	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	06-01 06:33
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	03-22 20:52
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27?	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	04-26 07:43
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	1	$10	27	0	+27	open	—	04-26 15:37
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	05-17 20:41
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	1	$10	48	0	+48	open	—	03-22 21:09
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on April 27?	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	04-26 16:19
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	04-26 16:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	04-26 15:23
russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 23	1	$5	13	0	+13	open	—	03-22 21:06
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	1	$5	15	0	+15	open	—	04-26 16:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$3	43	0	+43	Yes	+$40	05-01 19:15
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 28?	2	$2	36	0	+36	open	—	04-26 07:52
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	05-03 18:03
Will Trump post "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" on Truth Social this week?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	04-26 15:45
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	04-26 16:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$1	12	0	+12	Yes	+$12	04-29 07:56
Will Trump say "Prediction Market" in May?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	04-29 08:10
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$1	3	0	+3	Yes	+$2	04-26 16:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	1	$1	17	0	+17	open	—	06-01 06:28
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 28?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	04-26 07:52
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	04-29 05:38
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 26?	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	04-26 15:10
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	1	$1	6	0	+6	open	—	04-30 19:50
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?	1	$1	2	0	+2	Yes	$-1	04-30 19:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 06:33:25	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x9c681d…
06-01 06:28:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x5ee3e5…
05-17 20:41:45	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xd82a83…
05-13 07:45:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x7509ab…
05-03 18:03:56	Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x27b12d…
05-03 17:58:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$7	0x0508a5…
05-01 19:15:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x686a4a…
05-01 19:12:30	Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 8?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x1ce3bc…
05-01 19:11:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x076f24…
04-30 19:53:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x616bd7…
04-30 19:51:16	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x100013…
04-30 19:50:30	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd72636…
04-29 08:10:10	Will Trump say "Prediction Market" in May?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x24ffc7…
04-29 08:07:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x88b6a4…
04-29 07:56:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xdfe909…
04-29 05:38:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x459e0b…
04-26 16:19:20	DAX (DAX) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x35fa1d…
04-26 16:17:04	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x06e6a5…
04-26 16:17:00	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x7aa18d…
04-26 16:16:54	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x53cf6c…
04-26 16:10:30	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x83ae94…
04-26 16:07:00	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xe2544d…
04-26 15:46:16	Will Trump post "Triumphal Arc" or "Triumphal Arch" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x19d174…
04-26 15:45:22	Will Trump post "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x4fdda6…
04-26 15:37:02	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x8009c9…
04-26 15:24:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x39ff36…
04-26 15:23:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xc52282…
04-26 15:10:32	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe34dbc…
04-26 07:54:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xecbd13…
04-26 07:52:34	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x0288af…
04-26 07:52:24	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x74e958…
04-26 07:52:02	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x985eef…
04-26 07:51:34	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x6fd651…
04-26 07:43:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x99a0ef…
04-25 15:42:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0x7a85c8…
03-22 21:09:45	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	48	20¢	$10	0xf66c0f…
03-22 21:06:29	russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 23	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x030e11…
03-22 21:03:41	will sp 500 spx hit 6300 low in march 2026	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x838d6d…
03-22 20:53:11	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x36bac4…
03-22 20:52:33	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x28bae6…