Dangerous-Rumor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.13K

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

53.7%

Resolved

332

Trades

1,194

lifetime

Volume

$16.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$47

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 05-09 07:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Other

46% 35% -$978

Politics

32% 30% +$201

Crypto

16% 31% -$398

Sports

5% 11% -$92

Tech

1% 100% +$133

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-09).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes		-429	-$43	8¢	$-32	+$11	05-08 00:35
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes		-79	-$15	19¢	$-15	+$0	05-08 00:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	2	$479	462	462	+0	Yes	+$359	05-04 05:11
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?	3	$368	762	719	+43	No	+$48	04-27 00:59
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	3	$343	686	686	+0	No	+$97	04-18 09:06
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	7	$294	316	302	+14	No	+$78	04-29 01:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$285	195	195	+0	No	+$43	04-22 08:03
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$223	769	769	+0	No	+$23	05-08 00:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	7	$212	316	296	+19	No	+$92	04-24 17:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	13	$212	260	242	+17	Yes	+$41	04-24 18:14
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$205	476	476	+0	No	+$5	05-08 00:34
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$204	769	769	+0	open	—	05-08 00:34
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$191	1,429	1,429	+0	No	-$3	05-09 07:20
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	4	$187	192	192	+0	Yes	+$137	05-05 18:42
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	2	$179	1,429	1,429	+0	No	-$8	04-24 05:07
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	4	$174	208	208	+0	Yes	+$124	05-05 18:42
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	2	$167	1,111	1,111	+0	open	—	05-08 00:34
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	11	$165	207	198	+9	Yes	+$45	04-24 08:02
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$158	1,667	1,667	+0	No	-$8	04-23 23:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$150	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$50	05-09 00:43
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?	10	$142	1,667	1,667	+0	Yes	-$58	05-08 00:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	8	$140	667	667	+0	No	+$60	05-08 00:42
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	8	$137	150	134	+16	No	+$42	04-24 10:08
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 8?	4	$132	125	125	+0	Yes	+$82	05-08 06:05
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$132	556	556	+0	No	-$65	05-08 00:35
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-08?	3	$130	70	70	+0	Yes	+$10	05-08 21:08
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	10	$125	1,068	1,068	+0	open	—	05-08 00:34
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?	4	$124	100	100	+0	Yes	+$74	05-06 03:16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$120	250	250	+0	No	+$90	04-22 00:20
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$119	122	122	+0	No	-$1	04-27 00:59
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?	8	$117	179	167	+11	No	+$69	05-02 07:51
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	2	$116	680	680	+0	No	+$15	04-23 03:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 07:27:53	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	SELL	179	0¢	$0	0x244d99…
05-09 07:27:42	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?	Yes	SELL	156	2¢	$2	0xd8fe42…
05-09 07:27:32	Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x426903…
05-09 07:27:23	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	SELL	843	2¢	$20	0xd8b72c…
05-09 07:22:24	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 8?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xdd31ac…
05-09 07:22:10	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 8?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x0caad9…
05-09 07:21:54	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	Yes	SELL	41	80¢	$33	0x717ba3…
05-09 07:21:45	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,102	2¢	$25	0x595db7…
05-09 07:20:23	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	364	10¢	$36	0xcae6b0…
05-09 07:20:11	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	1,429	7¢	$94	0xce9a93…
05-09 07:20:04	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 8?	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0x78661d…
05-09 01:47:51	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May 8?	No	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x747d49…
05-09 00:45:26	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 8?	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x47143e…
05-09 00:43:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	235	11¢	$26	0xcc2235…
05-09 00:43:31	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	10¢	$11	0xf5eb84…
05-09 00:43:29	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	SELL	65	4¢	$3	0xea2772…
05-09 00:43:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	5¢	$50	0x1ace5a…
05-09 00:42:40	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8?	Yes	SELL	41	1¢	$0	0xad39c9…
05-09 00:42:28	Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	58	2¢	$1	0x622c67…
05-08 22:14:11	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x85f35e…
05-08 22:13:02	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8?	Yes	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0x605e7e…
05-08 22:12:59	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x4882dc…
05-08 22:12:57	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	Yes	SELL	17	69¢	$12	0x509ed5…
05-08 22:04:03	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	SELL	191	2¢	$4	0x9fba8c…
05-08 21:08:21	Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-08?	Yes	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0xb05d05…
05-08 17:49:47	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xcf209b…
05-08 17:01:34	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xd2f63a…
05-08 16:55:13	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	2¢	$3	0xc2d7fb…
05-08 16:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x157655…
05-08 15:49:58	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	BUY	98	5¢	$5	0xe4878c…
05-08 15:24:55	Will Petrojet SC win on 2026-05-08?	Yes	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0xa93a2f…
05-08 15:24:51	Will Petrojet SC win on 2026-05-08?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xebc77f…
05-08 14:41:34	Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x96f015…
05-08 14:36:35	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x9c10f0…
05-08 14:21:48	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	SELL	58	8¢	$5	0x78c019…
05-08 14:10:50	Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xb0316d…
05-08 13:47:11	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x3e1e8e…
05-08 13:45:43	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	1,429	7¢	$97	0xfe0444…
05-08 13:41:50	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x96119b…
05-08 13:23:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	235	16¢	$38	0x1bb47b…
05-08 12:40:46	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	SELL	69	8¢	$5	0x0b5239…
05-08 12:35:37	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x148395…
05-08 12:20:39	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0x67b409…
05-08 12:08:08	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	23¢	$8	0xfc5582…
05-08 12:08:03	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	20¢	$15	0xe4dc75…
05-08 11:56:35	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 8?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x4fbdb6…
05-08 11:56:32	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 8?	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x24ab2e…
05-08 11:28:19	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 8?	No	BUY	346	5¢	$17	0xb032ba…
05-08 11:24:32	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 8?	No	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x6753df…
05-08 11:11:12	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 8?	No	BUY	59	5¢	$3	0x73ba7a…
05-08 11:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa39a59…
05-08 11:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x552fcd…
05-08 11:08:54	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x7ce205…
05-08 11:08:52	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0x5e2fda…
05-08 11:08:52	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0x5c446f…
05-08 11:08:52	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x212068…
05-08 11:07:46	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0xf1cd2c…
05-08 11:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 8?	No	BUY	47	21¢	$10	0x94deed…
05-08 10:59:46	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 8?	No	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0xfdb36f…
05-08 10:59:43	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 8?	No	BUY	11	21¢	$2	0x830825…
05-08 10:52:13	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 8?	No	BUY	10	65¢	$7	0xaaba85…
05-08 10:52:08	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 8?	No	BUY	21	65¢	$13	0x225d7e…
05-08 10:44:34	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb625f4…
05-08 10:44:34	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xacdf06…
05-08 10:39:58	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 8?	No	SELL	1	58¢	$0	0xc356b7…
05-08 10:31:20	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 8?	No	BUY	70	5¢	$4	0xd9d7a0…
05-08 10:30:59	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 8?	No	BUY	4	62¢	$3	0x331ff0…
05-08 10:30:47	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 8?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x66c1fc…
05-08 10:30:26	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	SELL	61	9¢	$5	0x76f696…
05-08 10:29:37	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 8?	No	SELL	12	58¢	$7	0xd25fb5…
05-08 10:29:26	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	Yes	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x83b49b…
05-08 10:27:39	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 8?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x950959…
05-08 10:27:08	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 8?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xa3772e…
05-08 10:26:59	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 8?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x90707a…
05-08 10:25:28	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 8?	No	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0x220a1e…
05-08 10:23:15	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 8?	No	SELL	4	58¢	$2	0xc43940…
05-08 10:21:41	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 8?	No	SELL	3	58¢	$1	0x6af01d…
05-08 10:21:06	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 8?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x3ae7f0…
05-08 10:19:56	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 8?	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x5fc96b…
05-08 10:19:36	Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)	Racing Club de Lens	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x32cf6d…
05-08 10:19:35	BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x7c026d…
05-08 10:18:11	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8?	Yes	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0xc677f1…
05-08 10:15:31	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 8?	No	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x3401b8…
05-08 10:12:45	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x9447f3…
05-08 10:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0xcc412d…
05-08 10:09:26	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	SELL	16	8¢	$1	0x2496e2…
05-08 10:08:51	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 8?	No	BUY	80	5¢	$4	0x534201…
05-08 10:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 8?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xac17df…
05-08 10:07:51	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x588d80…
05-08 10:07:46	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x0d3ab4…
05-08 10:00:28	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x22b259…
05-08 09:55:03	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x205ca7…
05-08 09:54:59	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x65eac3…
05-08 09:52:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?	Yes	BUY	0	58¢	$0	0x6bd8af…
05-08 09:47:07	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?	Yes	BUY	4	58¢	$3	0xc908f9…
05-08 09:47:07	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$11	0x8e62e2…
05-08 09:46:41	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xc927ab…
05-08 09:43:18	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	SELL	70	8¢	$6	0x57cdb1…
05-08 09:43:09	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x612a8f…
05-08 09:39:13	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?	No	BUY	70	5¢	$4	0x55cca4…