Flawed-Meander — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

56.1%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

17,100 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$113.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$37

10 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 10-21 16:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 214 days

Categories

Other

80% 57% +$1,639

Politics

13% 55% +$31

Crypto

4% 57% +$30

Sports

2% 46% +$7

Tech

1% 53% -$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 174 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	-22	-$18	83¢	$-18	-$1	10-21 16:20
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	-10	-$7	97¢	$-9	-$2	05-01 05:03
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-22	-$4	17¢	$-4	+$1	10-21 16:31
Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	+4	$5	77¢	$3	-$2	10-21 16:20
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Yes	-2	-$1	67¢	$-1	$0	04-29 19:03
Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	Yes	+4	$1	23¢	$1	$0	06-28 15:39
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	-5	-$4	14¢	$-1	+$3	04-29 02:23
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	+0	$1	78¢	$0	-$1	10-11 23:27
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+0	$0	66¢	$0	$0	09-23 22:55
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	2¢	$0	$0	10-12 21:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	20	$891	920	920	+0	Yes	-$22	06-14 21:44
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	39	$696	592	592	+0	Yes	+$1	04-16 15:39
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	48	$502	1,425	1,406	+19	No	+$25	04-15 21:47
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 6?	38	$488	305	305	+0	No	-$7	07-06 07:19
dota2 nemiga bb4 2026 04 14 game1	9	$479	334	334	+0	Nemiga Gaming	+$182	04-14 10:43
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	3	$442	250	245	+5	Yes	+$48	05-05 21:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	24	$438	684	661	+23	Yes	+$240	04-16 08:15
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18?	8	$410	261	235	+26	Yes	+$19	06-18 07:25
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	20	$404	452	452	+0	No	+$77	04-21 20:32
dota2 liquid mouz 2026 04 14 game1	7	$384	323	266	+57	MOUZ	+$48	04-14 15:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	25	$378	395	389	+6	Yes	-$127	04-23 03:41
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3?	7	$370	206	206	+0	Yes	+$39	06-03 19:10
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?	19	$357	254	254	+0	No	+$18	05-08 07:23
will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	3	$321	223	223	+0	No	+$26	07-11 17:50
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 8?	5	$319	177	177	+0	Yes	+$32	07-08 07:19
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13?	11	$307	167	167	+0	No	+$26	06-13 07:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-25 06:45 UTC	143	$288	2,950	0	+2,950	Up	-$288	07-25 07:00
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 10?	4	$287	151	151	+0	Yes	+$12	07-10 07:27
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21?	3	$286	151	151	+0	Yes	+$12	06-21 11:15
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29?	6	$281	152	152	+0	Yes	+$19	06-29 07:10
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 0 39	42	$277	153	142	+10	No	-$7	04-20 07:07
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	37	$265	314	314	+0	No	+$10	07-03 23:30
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12?	9	$262	155	155	+0	Yes	+$3	06-12 09:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?	18	$258	439	439	+0	No	+$3	05-15 07:03
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?	7	$257	172	172	+0	Yes	+$12	06-17 14:58
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	50	$255	225	225	+0	No	-$2	07-03 18:49
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 40 64	24	$250	144	143	+1	Yes	-$4	04-20 06:55
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?	6	$249	155	155	+0	Yes	+$12	06-22 07:21
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?	9	$247	251	251	-0	Yes	+$13	05-15 04:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	11	$244	168	168	+0	No	-$4	05-25 19:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 16:39:45	Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x84524d…
10-21 16:39:24	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xaf582e…
10-21 16:39:15	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xd976bb…
10-21 16:39:06	Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0xb17f2b…
10-21 16:38:59	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	38	0¢	$0	0x430b9b…
10-21 16:38:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x20bc0a…
10-21 16:38:45	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x930a60…
10-21 16:38:36	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x32b5d3…
10-21 16:38:29	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xfc9392…
10-21 16:38:21	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x3dc305…
10-21 16:38:14	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x8ecd1c…
10-21 16:38:06	California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition	No	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xc2b3c3…
10-21 16:38:00	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0x8dab87…
10-21 16:37:53	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	27	1¢	$0	0xc34952…
10-21 16:37:47	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	125	0¢	$0	0x8880f1…
10-21 16:37:38	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x9a16b6…
10-21 16:37:32	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xd4d0b1…
10-21 16:37:24	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xeddc8d…
10-21 16:37:18	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	11	6¢	$1	0x4a935f…
10-21 16:37:12	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xf6bcac…
10-21 16:37:00	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on October 22?	Yes	SELL	79	0¢	$0	0x16bb5e…
10-21 16:36:54	Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xe28629…
10-21 16:36:45	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x350abd…
10-21 16:36:39	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	6¢	$1	0xdfeb2b…
10-21 16:36:30	Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xf2fd42…
10-21 16:36:24	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xcff304…
10-21 16:36:15	OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?	No	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0xcdad74…
10-21 16:36:06	Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	2¢	$1	0xc1f525…
10-21 16:35:59	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	21¢	$2	0x075273…
10-21 16:35:51	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0x7ee010…
10-21 16:35:44	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0xbbb980…
10-21 16:35:35	Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xd3213b…
10-21 16:35:21	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Dark Moon (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #9 Group A	Dark Moon	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xeb8a04…
10-21 16:35:11	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xa32855…
10-21 16:35:00	Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?	No	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x2fe5b9…
10-21 16:34:51	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0x31f035…
10-21 16:34:44	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x8dc58e…
10-21 16:34:33	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xfbcb6e…
10-21 16:34:23	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0x6cdf80…
10-21 16:34:09	California Immunology Research Bond Proposition	No	SELL	7	35¢	$2	0x4ee9a1…
10-21 16:33:59	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x2106a2…
10-21 16:33:45	Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x4957a9…
10-21 16:33:36	Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?	No	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0xca98d7…
10-21 16:33:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0xe2ef0f…
10-21 16:32:21	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x3c0a9a…
10-21 16:32:14	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x9a822a…
10-21 16:32:06	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0x42c590…
10-21 16:31:57	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x200ce4…
10-21 16:31:50	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x200880…
10-21 16:31:41	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x69d032…
10-21 16:31:33	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x554ecb…
10-21 16:31:26	Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x5772cd…
10-21 16:31:17	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	22	20¢	$4	0x27f2df…
10-21 16:31:11	California Clinic Funding Proposition	No	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0x5e4be2…
10-21 16:31:02	Will the Republican Party win the VA-02 House seat?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x263711…
10-21 16:30:53	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x56a1bc…
10-21 16:30:44	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x2a5500…
10-21 16:30:30	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x4f44ae…
10-21 16:30:21	Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x009eed…
10-21 16:29:09	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 20?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x6d771b…
10-21 16:29:02	Will Gen.G Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0x10499b…
10-21 16:28:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	36	13¢	$5	0x03303e…
10-21 16:28:44	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on October 20?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xce4db5…
10-21 16:28:33	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x3791ce…
10-21 16:28:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xc0331a…
10-21 16:28:11	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0xedf9e5…
10-21 16:27:50	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x5706fb…
10-21 16:27:32	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	78¢	$6	0x3c12f6…
10-21 16:27:15	Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B	Zero Tenacity	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x72dc17…
10-21 16:27:05	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 20?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xb0d6cf…
10-21 16:26:56	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	51¢	$7	0xb3cf3b…
10-21 16:26:45	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x8a929b…
10-21 16:26:38	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x8a8935…
10-21 16:26:27	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x2fc8dd…
10-21 16:26:18	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0xade120…
10-21 16:26:05	Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Atlanta Dream	SELL	13	61¢	$8	0x5b8d26…
10-21 16:24:57	Spread: Sam Houston (-1.5)	New Mexico State	SELL	14	59¢	$8	0x13c58c…
10-21 16:24:47	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x3afd20…
10-21 16:24:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	66	13¢	$9	0xa14676…
10-21 16:24:26	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xd05a5a…
10-21 16:24:14	Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x4ad821…
10-21 16:24:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x5764fc…
10-21 16:23:53	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	SELL	15	67¢	$10	0xf494e3…
10-21 16:23:39	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0xe3cd26…
10-21 16:23:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	49	22¢	$11	0xb6ac3f…
10-21 16:23:15	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on October 20?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xdbf6b2…
10-21 16:23:03	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	15	87¢	$13	0x50adbc…
10-21 16:22:51	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	15	93¢	$13	0x60bf5f…
10-21 16:22:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	No	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0xd094e9…
10-21 16:22:30	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in October?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xd28a47…
10-21 16:22:20	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x95d35f…
10-21 16:22:08	Dota 2: salamit vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner	HULIGANI	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0xe6af06…
10-21 16:21:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x0d8a0d…
10-21 16:20:33	Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	SELL	38	70¢	$26	0x6dcdbe…
10-21 16:20:23	Counter-Strike: 9INE Academy vs CTRL Esports (BO3) - United21 Group C	9INE Academy	SELL	60	50¢	$30	0xbb01b5…
10-21 16:20:14	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	22	80¢	$18	0x368c2b…
10-21 16:20:05	Counter-Strike: 9INE Academy vs CTRL Esports - Map 1 Winner	9INE Academy	SELL	36	50¢	$18	0x039c76…
10-21 16:19:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xf23255…
10-21 16:19:41	Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	No	SELL	26	86¢	$22	0xde6b03…
10-21 16:19:30	Counter-Strike: 9INE Academy vs CTRL Esports - Map 2 Winner	9INE Academy	SELL	44	50¢	$22	0xc9a56c…