Difficult-Hubris — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

155

lifetime

Volume

$15.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$99

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 06-09 23:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

42% 0% $-1

Sports

31% 0% $-2

Crypto

12% — —

Politics

12% — —

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$1.2K	630	630	+0	No	$-2	04-07 06:41
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	17	$922	484	484	+0	Yes	$-1	04-06 01:23
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	8	$752	393	393	+0	open	—	03-21 17:30
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	4	$730	376	376	+0	open	—	03-29 10:41
will collin morikawa win the 2026 masters tournament	6	$569	293	293	+0	open	—	04-01 11:24
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$494	259	259	+0	open	—	04-28 02:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$472	243	243	+0	open	—	04-03 02:37
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	8	$441	227	226	+0	open	—	04-11 16:55
will atltico madrid reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	2	$407	210	210	+0	open	—	03-11 18:22
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$395	202	202	+0	open	—	03-13 02:51
will florida win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$386	214	214	+0	open	—	03-18 12:29
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$386	199	199	+0	open	—	03-13 15:03
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$381	195	195	+0	open	—	03-19 10:00
will iowa state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$379	201	201	+0	open	—	03-25 00:49
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	4	$375	192	192	+0	open	—	03-20 16:25
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	2	$372	199	199	+0	open	—	03-22 13:56
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	2	$371	195	195	+0	open	—	03-20 00:26
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	2	$369	193	193	+0	open	—	03-26 05:42
will akshay bhatia win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$366	187	187	+0	open	—	03-19 16:53
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	3	$362	186	186	+0	open	—	03-29 19:18
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	2	$362	185	185	+0	open	—	03-21 23:30
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$355	185	185	+0	No	$-0	03-25 20:56
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$354	182	182	+0	open	—	03-28 16:45
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$351	180	180	+0	open	—	03-30 03:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$351	179	179	+0	open	—	04-27 10:46
will jon rahm win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$350	187	187	+0	open	—	03-26 01:19
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	2	$347	179	179	+0	open	—	04-25 05:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	7	$315	163	163	+0	open	—	05-22 04:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	4	$230	122	122	+0	open	—	05-03 09:36
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	4	$185	96	96	+0	open	—	04-01 03:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 23:00:04	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x1b4166…
06-09 14:59:48	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x9da2c3…
06-09 14:26:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	57	92¢	$53	0x3fbb6f…
06-09 09:17:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	57	95¢	$54	0x77029e…
06-05 08:09:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	55	92¢	$50	0x1e824b…
06-05 00:04:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	55	93¢	$51	0x2ffd56…
06-04 15:01:30	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	46	94¢	$43	0x8cc944…
06-04 09:58:28	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	95¢	$44	0xf3456c…
06-02 10:36:56	Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0xcbf5ad…
06-02 04:32:07	Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xf5f0fd…
05-29 21:42:05	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	56	92¢	$51	0x6b1a4e…
05-29 13:41:02	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	56	94¢	$53	0xdac332…
05-23 15:29:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0xd30994…
05-23 11:28:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	No	BUY	51	94¢	$48	0x2b0dcb…
05-22 04:07:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	51	97¢	$50	0xfd5843…
05-21 21:02:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xc3a7cb…
05-17 21:53:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	62	97¢	$60	0x0e0d73…
05-17 17:58:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x387465…
05-17 17:35:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	56	97¢	$54	0xaa949d…
05-16 12:42:04	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	53	95¢	$51	0x5aaf08…
05-16 07:40:37	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	53	96¢	$51	0xa56127…
05-15 00:08:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	No	SELL	62	98¢	$60	0x908e72…
05-14 20:07:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$60	0xbf081e…
05-14 19:59:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x86c9b6…
05-14 13:53:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x5e2da7…
05-14 07:28:52	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	SELL	48	91¢	$43	0xfd1cfa…
05-14 00:25:06	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	BUY	48	92¢	$44	0x4d17e1…
05-03 09:36:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	58	95¢	$55	0x3cada9…
05-03 05:32:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	58	96¢	$56	0xff13e4…
04-30 16:07:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	64	94¢	$60	0x56af34…
04-30 10:00:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	64	93¢	$59	0x46ef9a…
04-28 02:02:34	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	62	96¢	$60	0xb206f5…
04-27 19:35:50	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	62	96¢	$60	0x19976f…
04-27 10:46:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	179	98¢	$175	0x6acdba…
04-27 03:40:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	179	98¢	$175	0xa06b7a…
04-25 05:30:58	Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	179	97¢	$173	0x8c4c8f…
04-24 23:30:38	Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	179	97¢	$173	0xb62f6c…
04-24 09:24:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	SELL	61	97¢	$59	0xa22053…
04-22 23:32:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	61	97¢	$59	0xc56b8f…
04-13 04:04:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	SELL	62	97¢	$60	0x2edb4f…
04-12 19:41:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	BUY	62	97¢	$61	0x5da22c…
04-12 00:15:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0x76977a…
04-11 18:11:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0x4be492…
04-11 16:55:13	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	SELL	64	97¢	$62	0xcbf83b…
04-11 09:28:19	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	64	98¢	$63	0x9180fb…
04-11 09:03:05	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	SELL	46	97¢	$45	0x1d1ebe…
04-11 04:28:27	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	46	97¢	$45	0x186e50…
04-11 04:25:33	will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	67	96¢	$65	0xd3fa78…
04-10 21:04:29	will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	67	91¢	$61	0x6c2a55…
04-10 05:40:19	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	SELL	61	97¢	$59	0x06de46…
04-09 19:46:17	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	61	97¢	$59	0x0168af…
04-09 09:37:57	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	56	96¢	$54	0x1ce7f7…
04-09 01:26:23	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	56	96¢	$54	0x754dd1…
04-08 18:08:29	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	49	94¢	$47	0x46dc96…
04-08 11:04:27	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	49	95¢	$47	0xa127d6…
04-08 04:36:29	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x506182…
04-07 21:32:03	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$47	0x2ef5ea…
04-07 21:04:11	Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	51	94¢	$48	0x53fa48…
04-07 13:02:11	Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x452abb…
04-07 06:41:51	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$45	0xc0beba…
04-06 23:35:29	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$45	0x48f9cf…
04-06 01:23:53	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb5fab1…
04-05 19:31:39	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xe9fd1b…
04-05 19:16:39	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	54	96¢	$52	0x046fd2…
04-05 19:13:13	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	54	96¢	$52	0x76aa50…
04-05 19:07:41	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x0a3350…
04-05 14:56:19	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	45	96¢	$44	0xd640d9…
04-05 04:14:21	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	56	96¢	$54	0xd881e2…
04-04 20:13:29	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	56	96¢	$54	0xabd7a2…
04-04 20:04:43	will jordan spieth win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	42	98¢	$42	0x540cba…
04-04 12:04:09	will jordan spieth win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x6f4280…
04-03 10:56:13	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	SELL	56	98¢	$54	0xa03c68…
04-03 02:48:57	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$54	0xaeb1d0…
04-03 02:37:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	59	98¢	$58	0x783327…
04-02 19:33:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	59	98¢	$58	0x6cb150…
04-01 11:24:07	will collin morikawa win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	49	97¢	$48	0xfce7b7…
04-01 03:56:05	will collin morikawa win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	49	98¢	$48	0xc6a0ba…
04-01 03:33:43	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	43	96¢	$42	0x88db2f…
03-31 22:09:05	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0x392754…
03-31 21:52:03	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x61c61f…
03-31 17:31:23	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	53	96¢	$51	0x8ba5e5…
03-31 02:06:23	will collin morikawa win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	47	97¢	$45	0xc1134e…
03-30 19:42:31	will collin morikawa win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x6ce841…
03-30 03:51:22	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	180	97¢	$175	0xacf6e8…
03-29 23:48:12	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	180	98¢	$176	0x7c3adf…
03-29 23:29:26	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	180	95¢	$171	0x33c5bf…
03-29 19:43:22	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xcc4fc9…
03-29 19:28:04	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xffb791…
03-29 19:28:04	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	173	95¢	$165	0xde1b7b…
03-29 19:18:24	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	SELL	186	97¢	$181	0x51a8ea…
03-29 13:22:10	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	BUY	159	98¢	$155	0x614e95…
03-29 13:17:08	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x7c2734…
03-29 10:41:46	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	177	97¢	$172	0xc2e354…
03-29 05:31:06	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	177	97¢	$173	0xf99218…
03-29 00:33:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	184	97¢	$178	0x8cbc6b…
03-28 17:25:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	184	97¢	$178	0xe368d1…
03-28 16:45:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	182	97¢	$176	0xb29c59…
03-28 16:09:11	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	182	98¢	$177	0xe903bd…
03-28 11:10:33	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	188	97¢	$182	0xf6739c…
03-28 03:07:11	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	188	97¢	$182	0x117120…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	47	$379.8K	7,162	06-10 01:45
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	47	$53.0K	928	06-08 20:16
(anonymous) 0x9474…5091	40	$6.62K	5,186	06-10 00:00
Supportive-Gene 0x214c…6378	39	$373.3K	5,298	05-16 10:05
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	39	$146.5K	11,127	06-10 01:20
Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a	37	$163.2K	1,748	06-04 05:17
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	37	$57.4K	26,757	04-16 08:57
Spirited-Motion 0x70b6…aa2f	37	$19.7K	9,080	05-11 15:12