Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$626

Unrealized P&L

-$85

Hit rate

12.7%

Resolved

Trades

254

lifetime

Volume

$7.02K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

$2.89K

30 positions

First seen

2026-10-19

last 11-08 07:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

63% 9% -$152

Crypto

16% 0% -$356

Politics

13% 30% -$118

Tech

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 48 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Yes	+2,962	$207	10¢	$311	+$104	10-22 04:55
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	+588	$200	34¢	$197	-$3	11-07 16:37
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	+420	$189	43¢	$181	-$8	11-03 08:24
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	No	+332	$140	53¢	$177	+$37	10-30 19:26
Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?	No	+272	$111	51¢	$139	+$27	11-05 03:22
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Yes	+1,352	$161	10¢	$135	-$27	10-22 15:58
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	No	+415	$91	29¢	$120	+$29	11-04 07:32
Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?	No	+168	$73	65¢	$109	+$36	10-30 23:32
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+356	$91	31¢	$109	+$18	10-21 22:25
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?	No	+183	$101	57¢	$104	+$3	10-30 17:32
Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	+516	$108	19¢	$98	-$10	11-04 00:42
Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?	No	+190	$51	49¢	$93	+$42	11-06 19:28
Will Anthropic not IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+436	$70	20¢	$89	+$20	11-03 14:32
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?	No	+150	$84	55¢	$82	-$2	10-31 01:04
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+753	$105	10¢	$79	-$26	10-27 16:38
Will Malaysia win Eurovision Asia 2026?	No	+184	$87	38¢	$71	-$16	11-06 14:33
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,400	$196	5¢	$70	-$126	10-22 09:05
Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	No	+212	$68	33¢	$70	+$2	11-08 03:32
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	+900	$81	8¢	$68	-$13	10-21 21:03
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+517	$71	13¢	$65	-$6	10-21 00:25
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	Yes	+614	$67	11¢	$64	-$3	10-27 20:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+598	$90	11¢	$63	-$27	10-20 22:59
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+919	$86	7¢	$61	-$25	10-21 17:52
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	+301	$102	20¢	$59	-$44	11-03 05:37
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	+181	$45	28¢	$51	+$5	11-03 12:15
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	+113	$52	44¢	$50	-$2	11-03 02:58
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	+240	$43	20¢	$47	+$4	10-30 02:39
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+583	$52	8¢	$44	-$9	10-20 21:05
Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	+218	$122	20¢	$44	-$79	11-02 08:08
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in October?	No	+60	$28	70¢	$42	+$15	11-08 07:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 07:04:39	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in October?	No	BUY	60	46¢	$28	0x7c42f8…
11-08 03:32:39	Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x3e032d…
11-08 03:32:39	Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	112	32¢	$36	0x0bf2f2…
11-08 02:16:15	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate by 25 bps at the January meeting?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x0b9f4e…
11-07 17:49:24	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x5e0acc…
11-07 16:37:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	588	34¢	$200	0x148ca6…
11-07 04:03:45	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0xdf2ddb…
11-06 19:28:46	Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x22f69b…
11-06 14:59:46	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0xd45fac…
11-06 14:51:09	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x4fbe05…
11-06 14:51:09	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x21fb62…
11-06 14:51:06	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x09f23d…
11-06 14:51:03	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xfbe7d8…
11-06 14:51:01	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x2326f1…
11-06 14:50:58	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xa628f3…
11-06 14:50:55	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xfbb6b7…
11-06 14:50:55	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x3cb2be…
11-06 14:50:49	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x1a804e…
11-06 14:50:46	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x94337e…
11-06 14:50:46	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x42fa07…
11-06 14:50:42	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xe479df…
11-06 14:50:42	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x61a82e…
11-06 14:50:37	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xfc49de…
11-06 14:50:37	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x3a64a3…
11-06 14:50:33	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xbdbb9f…
11-06 14:50:30	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xdfc9d6…
11-06 14:50:30	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x4b3e2a…
11-06 14:50:25	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x2597ff…
11-06 14:50:24	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x18f011…
11-06 14:50:24	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x056f20…
11-06 14:50:19	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x01182c…
11-06 14:50:16	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x941e81…
11-06 14:50:16	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x8e2435…
11-06 14:50:09	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xd235b0…
11-06 14:50:09	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x9ab025…
11-06 14:50:06	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x39be79…
11-06 14:50:03	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xd03e23…
11-06 14:50:03	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xc0c1bf…
11-06 14:50:01	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xdd2bc9…
11-06 14:49:58	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x1c094a…
11-06 14:49:57	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x9c3f90…
11-06 14:49:55	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x4cc66a…
11-06 14:49:52	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x654df7…
11-06 14:49:52	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x25d738…
11-06 14:49:48	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	79	16¢	$13	0xb5ec4f…
11-06 14:49:48	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x5dd348…
11-06 14:34:24	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x6b71cc…
11-06 14:34:24	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x092dc9…
11-06 14:34:22	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xe0ae5e…
11-06 14:34:19	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xf40060…
11-06 14:34:18	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xd06d62…
11-06 14:34:18	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xa1b486…
11-06 14:34:16	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	34	19¢	$6	0x86c898…
11-06 14:33:52	Will Malaysia win Eurovision Asia 2026?	No	BUY	184	47¢	$87	0x701a72…
11-06 12:28:48	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	162	24¢	$39	0xde4acd…
11-05 23:27:27	Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	11	58¢	$6	0xe58683…
11-05 23:11:31	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	No	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0xeba7a5…
11-05 23:02:49	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	No	SELL	27	90¢	$24	0x89e89f…
11-05 16:26:54	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	No	SELL	67	60¢	$40	0xf9df3d…
11-05 03:22:00	Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?	No	BUY	272	41¢	$111	0xb1002c…
11-05 01:19:33	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	457	8¢	$37	0x2e7b32…
11-05 01:19:31	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x5aca23…
11-04 07:32:45	Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0xcbaaa2…
11-04 07:16:00	Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	No	BUY	306	22¢	$67	0x4b5a05…
11-04 07:15:58	Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	No	BUY	101	22¢	$22	0x6e790c…
11-04 00:42:04	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	516	21¢	$108	0x3a77a8…
11-03 21:46:28	Will Together be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	105	36¢	$38	0x0b21bc…
11-03 16:32:19	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	24	16¢	$4	0x3b5cc7…
11-03 15:21:06	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	133	30¢	$40	0x266f2c…
11-03 14:32:22	Will Anthropic not IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	436	16¢	$70	0xf29ee1…
11-03 14:08:07	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	Yes	SELL	233	12¢	$28	0x8f4722…
11-03 12:15:15	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	181	25¢	$45	0x3974a7…
11-03 08:24:52	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	420	45¢	$189	0xcc8bee…
11-03 05:37:24	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	301	34¢	$102	0x1fbbd4…
11-03 02:58:00	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	113	46¢	$52	0xd3fbac…
11-02 08:08:48	Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	169	56¢	$95	0x528229…
11-02 08:07:04	Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	49	56¢	$28	0xead98e…
11-02 07:01:21	Will XRP dip to $1.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,114	13¢	$145	0x38c9a5…
11-02 06:56:06	Will XRP dip to $1.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	13¢	$2	0x39dec7…
11-02 06:56:04	Will XRP dip to $1.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0xf51d0c…
11-02 06:56:04	Will XRP dip to $1.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	13¢	$2	0x26ad02…
11-02 06:54:52	Will XRP dip to $1.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	405	10¢	$40	0x1a9a1f…
11-02 06:54:48	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	2,119	5¢	$107	0xcfe9bd…
11-01 04:27:22	Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?	No	BUY	220	31¢	$68	0xacc454…
11-01 02:05:46	Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?	Yes	BUY	240	10¢	$24	0xc85f78…
10-31 02:33:58	Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?	No	BUY	244	39¢	$95	0xe5ea03…
10-31 01:12:22	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xdcd15b…
10-31 01:04:06	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	150	56¢	$84	0x9fe1c2…
10-30 23:32:43	Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc01ff9…
10-30 23:32:43	Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?	No	BUY	164	44¢	$72	0x8cd3ad…
10-30 23:32:43	Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x514980…
10-30 23:12:52	Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?	No	BUY	206	29¢	$60	0xfd790f…
10-30 22:57:54	Blue tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	40	36¢	$14	0x203f95…
10-30 22:35:34	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	No	BUY	199	26¢	$51	0x04de2a…
10-30 22:22:12	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0x689c60…
10-30 19:26:49	Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	No	BUY	332	42¢	$140	0xadb710…
10-30 17:32:39	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?	No	BUY	183	55¢	$101	0xf66208…
10-30 06:59:10	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	Yes	BUY	233	11¢	$26	0xb98190…
10-30 03:22:04	Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?	Yes	BUY	193	13¢	$25	0xd96c17…
10-30 03:22:04	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	214	9¢	$19	0x3bfd47…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will XRP dip to $1.20 by December 31, 2026?	7	$735	1,559	1,559	+0	Yes	-$356	11-02 07:01
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	6	$607	2,119	2,119	+0	open	—	11-02 06:54
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	1	$207	2,962	0	+2,962	open	—	10-22 04:55
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	1	$200	588	0	+588	open	—	11-07 16:37
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?	2	$196	1,400	0	+1,400	open	—	10-22 09:05
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	1	$189	420	0	+420	open	—	11-03 08:24
Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027?	1	$176	878	0	+878	open	—	10-21 17:41
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	7	$161	1,352	0	+1,352	open	—	10-22 15:58
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	2	$155	554	0	+554	open	—	10-21 10:39
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	1	$140	332	0	+332	open	—	10-30 19:26
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	4	$140	133	133	+0	open	—	11-05 23:11
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	48	$132	487	487	+0	open	—	11-06 14:59
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	2	$126	649	0	+649	open	—	10-30 00:42
Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	2	$122	218	0	+218	open	—	11-02 08:08
Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?	1	$111	272	0	+272	open	—	11-05 03:22
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	1	$110	1,224	0	+1,224	open	—	10-20 22:39
Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	1	$108	516	0	+516	open	—	11-04 00:42
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	6	$105	753	0	+753	open	—	10-27 16:38
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	2	$104	741	247	+494	open	—	10-26 09:32
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	1	$102	301	0	+301	open	—	11-03 05:37
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?	1	$101	183	0	+183	open	—	10-30 17:32
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?	1	$95	244	0	+244	open	—	10-31 02:33
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	3	$91	415	0	+415	open	—	11-04 07:32
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	3	$91	356	0	+356	open	—	10-21 22:25
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$90	598	0	+598	open	—	10-20 22:59
Will Malaysia win Eurovision Asia 2026?	1	$87	184	0	+184	open	—	11-06 14:33
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	2	$86	919	0	+919	open	—	10-21 17:52
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?	3	$85	432	238	+193	No	-$23	10-30 03:22
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?	1	$84	150	0	+150	open	—	10-31 01:04
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?	2	$82	348	116	+232	open	—	10-29 17:48