Crazy-Exhibit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$435

Unrealized P&L

+$15

Hit rate

95.0%

Resolved

Trades

224

lifetime

Volume

$5.48K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$26

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-16 05:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

45% 33% +$435

Other

44% — —

Crypto

10% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes		-208	$-41	12¢	$-26	+$15	06-26 20:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	6	$564	1,255	1,255	+0	open	—	02-28 21:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$508	478	478	+0	Yes	+$448	05-09 11:46
spx opens up or down on february 9 2026	5	$448	443	443	+0	open	—	02-08 21:50
btc updown 15m 1768261500	2	$244	125	125	+0	open	—	01-13 00:00
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	9	$231	13,526	0	+13,526	open	—	02-03 01:13
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$184	164	164	+0	open	—	01-15 07:40
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase january 13 19	2	$168	107	107	+0	open	—	01-13 16:51
earnings mentions ea 2026 02 03 live service 1 times	6	$154	1,137	1,137	+0	open	—	01-17 08:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$152	147	147	+0	open	—	04-21 18:24
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	2	$145	269	269	+0	open	—	03-08 04:12
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$142	119	119	+0	open	—	02-28 06:59
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	1	$121	0	318	-318	open	—	01-12 23:08
will israel strike lebanon on february 4 2026	2	$114	84	84	+0	open	—	02-04 17:56
btc updown 15m 1770247800	4	$112	119	32	+87	open	—	02-04 23:45
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$112	754	396	+357	open	—	03-08 04:14
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	2	$109	91	91	+0	open	—	02-05 02:43
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	4	$92	615	253	+363	open	—	01-03 21:45
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	2	$85	158	158	+0	open	—	01-13 16:50
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	3	$81	68	68	+0	open	—	04-07 22:59
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$80	41	41	+0	open	—	02-04 04:46
will israel strike lebanon on february 5 2026	4	$77	154	154	+0	open	—	02-05 15:54
will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in june 2026	2	$77	141	141	+0	open	—	06-18 03:17
will claude 5 be released by february 6 2026 173 394	2	$71	46	46	+0	open	—	02-05 06:41
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	3	$70	1,393	0	+1,393	open	—	05-15 09:22
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	1	$61	0	122	-122	open	—	01-05 09:47
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$58	46	46	+0	open	—	01-08 02:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$53	70	70	+0	open	—	04-24 16:55
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	3	$51	579	79	+500	open	—	02-03 19:53
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	2	$49	241	241	+0	open	—	02-03 09:42
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$45	408	0	+408	open	—	03-27 02:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 05:58:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xf7a47d…
07-15 06:42:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	573	2¢	$11	0x806c72…
06-26 20:38:52	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	No	BUY	356	1¢	$5	0x4cce1f…
06-26 20:38:38	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	117	17¢	$20	0x0cf15d…
06-23 05:29:52	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	No	BUY	123	8¢	$10	0x0fd618…
06-21 05:23:50	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	432	2¢	$10	0xc83172…
06-18 03:19:41	Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	138	3¢	$4	0x441f22…
06-18 03:19:07	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	129	3¢	$4	0xf2e0bd…
06-18 03:17:01	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in june 2026	Yes	SELL	141	26¢	$37	0xe8dd2a…
06-17 18:12:22	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	23¢	$9	0x0c007f…
06-17 18:09:19	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	250	6¢	$15	0x25112f…
06-16 02:01:55	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	BUY	1,600	0¢	$3	0x23ad5d…
06-16 01:59:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	455	2¢	$10	0x8d6f26…
06-16 01:58:48	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	24¢	$12	0x0aa7cd…
06-15 02:05:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	159	19¢	$30	0x374ff1…
05-30 16:34:11	Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xad16f0…
05-30 16:33:50	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	141	28¢	$40	0x0eeb6d…
05-19 14:43:51	Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	556	2¢	$10	0x9ffcb5…
05-19 14:43:00	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x03a017…
05-19 14:42:01	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x39e45d…
05-19 14:41:38	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0xb83986…
05-19 14:41:14	Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	115	2¢	$2	0xb45c48…
05-15 09:36:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x81feef…
05-15 09:22:55	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	508	2¢	$10	0xe91cae…
05-15 09:21:58	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	528	2¢	$10	0x383559…
05-09 11:46:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	478	100¢	$478	0x5befe0…
05-05 17:02:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	2¢	$2	0x8f7424…
05-04 19:26:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	7¢	$10	0xeabd99…
05-03 09:37:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0x2d67b3…
05-03 09:37:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x1a6ae7…
05-03 09:37:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	4¢	$10	0x742e32…
05-03 09:25:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	330	6¢	$20	0xbbac5c…
05-03 09:22:28	Sharjah announces secession from UAE by May 8?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$2	0xddfda0…
05-03 09:11:34	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	357	14¢	$50	0xe4f190…
04-25 08:38:40	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	No	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xf36da7…
04-25 08:35:58	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	No	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xd30772…
04-24 16:55:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	70	38¢	$27	0xc557cd…
04-22 01:41:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	70	37¢	$26	0x974747…
04-21 18:24:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	SELL	147	86¢	$127	0x016824…
04-21 05:42:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	147	17¢	$25	0xbb16da…
04-15 00:48:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$2	0xd53893…
04-14 03:58:41	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x8b2be5…
04-13 04:41:47	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	Yes	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x881a53…
04-10 07:18:23	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	Yes	BUY	57	18¢	$10	0xd8909a…
04-08 17:31:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x533778…
04-07 23:00:23	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xc1a889…
04-07 22:59:55	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	51	97¢	$49	0x561bcb…
04-06 06:44:55	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xdb0026…
04-05 05:11:43	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x3eea05…
03-31 09:59:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0x1be261…
03-31 09:58:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	17	33¢	$6	0xe223b6…
03-27 07:44:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	68	38¢	$26	0x3c9d92…
03-27 02:02:43	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x274f13…
03-24 05:16:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	769	1¢	$10	0x0dcf6c…
03-24 05:12:55	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	143	21¢	$30	0xc3de44…
03-24 05:12:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	308	13¢	$40	0x490b95…
03-24 04:53:11	will the us tariff rate on china be between 25 and 35 on march 31	Yes	SELL	90	1¢	$1	0x81386b…
03-13 05:40:13	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	1,970	0¢	$2	0x4241be…
03-13 05:39:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x8d2e10…
03-10 21:33:15	will iran strike turkey in march	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x4aa6d0…
03-10 21:32:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x7839df…
03-10 08:17:23	will ethan hawke win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	98	1¢	$1	0x098a1f…
03-10 08:17:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0x439e70…
03-09 21:14:11	will the us tariff rate on china be between 25 and 35 on march 31	Yes	BUY	90	2¢	$2	0x77ff53…
03-09 21:13:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x483dff…
03-08 04:14:59	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	357	1¢	$5	0x389101…
03-08 04:12:53	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	269	46¢	$125	0x91393d…
03-07 00:27:11	us forces enter iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	111	2¢	$2	0x6eff5f…
03-01 09:12:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	22¢	$8	0x869ac8…
03-01 09:01:37	will putin meet with zelenskyy by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	147	3¢	$5	0x270e24…
03-01 09:00:45	will zelenskyy talk to putin by march 31	Yes	BUY	57	9¢	$5	0x63d789…
03-01 09:00:07	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x48e6b6…
03-01 08:51:11	will putin meet with zelenskyy by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x11fcb7…
03-01 08:49:59	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0x4aa212…
03-01 01:35:35	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	51	0¢	$0	0xe6a631…
02-28 21:11:43	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	51	9¢	$5	0x13fab1…
02-28 21:11:27	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	Yes	SELL	80	5¢	$4	0x89c952…
02-28 07:15:41	will trump talk to vladimir putin in february	Yes	SELL	37	2¢	$1	0x08e7d2…
02-28 07:07:43	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	103	1¢	$1	0x1f7a9f…
02-28 07:07:17	will trump talk to mark carney in february	Yes	SELL	81	1¢	$1	0xc5886c…
02-28 07:07:09	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	SELL	75	1¢	$1	0x0e7fc4…
02-28 07:00:15	US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	98¢	$23	0xb807e7…
02-28 06:59:09	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	SELL	119	98¢	$117	0x9ffb82…
02-27 18:24:45	will nick shirley attend the 2026 state of the union address	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc65b7f…
02-27 07:54:05	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x328e7e…
02-27 07:49:27	will nick shirley attend the 2026 state of the union address	No	BUY	433	0¢	$1	0x4466e5…
02-27 07:47:43	andrew tate posts february 20 february 27 130 159	Yes	BUY	117	2¢	$2	0x0a642d…
02-27 07:44:53	andrew tate posts february 20 february 27 100 129	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x35bf19…
02-27 07:42:11	will trump talk to mark carney in february	Yes	BUY	81	1¢	$1	0x7bb29c…
02-27 07:41:59	will trump talk to vladimir putin in february	Yes	BUY	37	8¢	$3	0x1fbd31…
02-26 06:39:36	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	381	0¢	$1	0x8aaf54…
02-25 08:00:06	will nick shirley attend the 2026 state of the union address	No	SELL	62	1¢	$1	0x8e0a27…
02-25 07:57:04	will nick shirley attend the 2026 state of the union address	No	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x053859…
02-25 05:13:00	US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xde0aa6…
02-23 23:18:12	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	75	7¢	$5	0x5d05ab…
02-23 23:15:42	will trump say little communist during the 2026 state of the union address	Yes	BUY	26	8¢	$2	0xff24b8…
02-23 23:14:42	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	119	21¢	$25	0xb2ba6a…
02-23 23:14:28	us strikes iran by february 24 2026	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xf0c543…
02-23 08:26:44	new 10 us blanket tariff goes into effect by february 28	No	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0xb5a5ca…
02-22 21:31:10	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x82a8f8…