Hospitable-Skullcap — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$164

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

29.5%

Resolved

120

Trades

153

lifetime

Volume

$437

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$18

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 07-19 21:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

74% 9% -$77

Politics

20% 3% -$66

Crypto

5% 9% -$18

Tech

1% 0% -$3

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-19).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-61	-$17	18¢	$-11	+$6	07-19 03:59
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	-64	-$11	10¢	$-6	+$5	05-01 07:21
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	-43	-$2	2¢	$-1	+$1	05-12 20:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$89	192	339	-146	No	+$79	06-20 08:16
Fed rate hike in 2026?	1	$57	0	87	-87	Yes	-$31	06-20 08:16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$17	0	61	-61	open	—	07-19 03:59
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	3	$13	8,050	0	+8,050	Yes	-$13	04-22 19:51
AI bubble burst in 2026?	1	$11	0	64	-64	open	—	05-01 07:21
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$11	1,500	0	+1,500	Yes	-$11	04-28 15:44
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	2	$10	11	11	+0	Yes	+$6	07-14 08:06
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	2	$8	8,000	0	+8,000	Yes	-$8	04-22 19:52
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	2	$7	344	0	+344	Yes	-$7	04-29 15:27
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	2	$6	122	0	+122	No	-$6	04-28 16:18
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$5	1,013	0	+1,013	No	-$5	04-16 13:06
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?	1	$5	362	0	+362	No	-$5	04-28 15:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$5	1,250	0	+1,250	No	-$5	04-16 08:19
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	71	0	+71	No	-$5	04-16 08:14
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	1	$5	167	0	+167	No	-$5	04-16 08:50
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	1	$5	146	0	+146	No	-$5	04-16 13:09
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?	3	$5	37	37	+0	Yes	+$1	05-06 20:44
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$5	43	43	+0	open	—	07-19 21:15
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$4	80	0	+80	No	-$4	04-16 12:13
will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 23 2026	2	$4	26	0	+26	Yes	-$4	04-23 10:15
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$4	5	5	+0	No	+$2	05-14 19:51
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$4	12	12	+0	Yes	+$2	06-20 22:02
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$3	750	0	+750	No	-$3	04-16 13:07
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?	1	$3	1,547	0	+1,547	No	-$3	04-16 13:10
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?	1	$3	503	0	+503	No	-$3	04-16 13:10
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	2	$3	93	0	+93	Yes	-$3	05-16 18:56
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	3	$3	210	0	+210	Yes	-$3	06-23 23:12
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?	2	$3	183	0	+183	Yes	-$3	06-24 10:59
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	2	$3	243	0	+243	No	-$3	06-11 20:37
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	3	$3	204	0	+204	No	-$3	05-16 18:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 21:48:40	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xccf6c7…
07-19 21:16:07	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x8396cb…
07-19 21:15:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0x5fc79b…
07-19 21:12:48	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xcfd88c…
07-19 21:10:36	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xd8df73…
07-19 20:39:16	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xef4733…
07-19 20:37:36	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xede18b…
07-19 19:35:37	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x02f4e7…
07-19 19:31:19	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xb986a7…
07-19 19:28:01	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x9f5a14…
07-19 19:26:58	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x51f790…
07-19 19:25:39	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xf7046c…
07-19 19:23:16	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xfab857…
07-19 05:19:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 19?	No	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x1cfd2c…
07-19 05:04:15	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa03307…
07-19 04:00:57	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x509f4f…
07-19 03:59:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	61	28¢	$17	0xea8d88…
07-14 09:37:49	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x55b1a5…
07-14 09:36:58	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	731	0¢	$1	0xc052ee…
07-14 09:29:10	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	118	1¢	$1	0x012b9e…
07-14 09:26:49	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x59f5a9…
07-14 08:30:53	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x05176d…
07-14 08:30:11	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x689188…
07-14 08:15:28	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	172	1¢	$1	0xe6759b…
07-14 08:14:25	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x0de906…
07-14 08:13:28	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0x2d6ab7…
07-14 08:06:32	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	No	SELL	11	74¢	$8	0xfb0b0e…
06-24 10:59:32	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?	No	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x74f777…
06-23 23:12:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xaac935…
06-23 10:13:35	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0xec5569…
06-23 05:13:53	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	No	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x78bf1b…
06-22 06:58:31	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x8f4ca0…
06-22 06:56:19	Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting?	No	BUY	71	3¢	$2	0x855b42…
06-22 06:50:35	will russia capture dorozhnie by june 30 2026	No	BUY	61	3¢	$2	0xd9dd85…
06-21 22:19:05	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xe482a8…
06-21 22:14:23	Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x65bb8f…
06-21 22:02:11	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3eb157…
06-21 21:58:32	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xeea44f…
06-21 21:56:59	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x4340ba…
06-21 21:55:07	Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x15347b…
06-21 21:49:22	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe4756c…
06-21 21:48:29	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4f92f0…
06-20 22:52:14	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xadf23e…
06-20 22:50:22	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in June?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x63bf83…
06-20 22:46:58	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $780b and $800b on June 30?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0xf39f29…
06-20 22:46:17	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?	No	BUY	124	2¢	$2	0x1caa6e…
06-20 22:42:04	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	59	3¢	$2	0x149e27…
06-20 22:35:59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x3978e1…
06-20 22:28:16	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x47a9d5…
06-20 22:23:58	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xfaaa8c…
06-20 22:23:25	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x0b269b…
06-20 22:22:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	No	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x5d5abb…
06-20 22:21:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	167	1¢	$2	0x60f4f4…
06-20 22:18:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0xefce21…
06-20 22:16:11	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x617ec0…
06-20 22:15:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x060aa1…
06-20 22:02:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	12	22¢	$3	0x42ab97…
06-20 08:16:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	65¢	$57	0x6227ff…
06-20 08:16:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	339	25¢	$84	0x40eb9a…
06-11 20:37:10	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x63c77b…
05-16 18:57:14	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x30398c…
05-16 18:56:02	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	No	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xdf2157…
05-16 18:53:37	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xc23746…
05-15 19:16:16	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Yes	BUY	118	2¢	$2	0x4c2bd0…
05-15 03:28:38	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x05b338…
05-15 03:26:09	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x024399…
05-15 03:14:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x714600…
05-14 20:48:40	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x2a8223…
05-14 19:51:06	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xf3e8d1…
05-14 10:46:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd0dcee…
05-14 10:45:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xc61a77…
05-13 20:36:59	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xc34335…
05-13 20:34:59	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x3146b5…
05-13 20:32:49	Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x4fb4b0…
05-13 20:30:33	Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xede8b9…
05-13 20:29:31	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x611b1c…
05-13 20:25:23	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x5b8b48…
05-13 20:22:09	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x079001…
05-13 20:12:19	Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc271fb…
05-13 20:10:39	Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-13?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2ace85…
05-13 19:59:55	Will Stockport County FC win on 2026-05-13?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x0d38e9…
05-13 19:47:31	Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-13?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x272fd2…
05-13 19:46:48	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x23f039…
05-13 19:45:59	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x700d9f…
05-13 19:10:11	Cordoba: Ryan Dickerson vs Nicolas Kicker	Ryan Dickerson	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd3fa06…
05-13 19:00:06	Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa97abd…
05-13 18:53:58	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-13?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x3968ee…
05-13 18:51:02	Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x811d58…
05-13 18:24:17	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x762474…
05-12 20:16:12	Will Kilmarnock FC win on 2026-05-12?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x0045f2…
05-12 20:12:53	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0xfe8e41…
05-06 20:46:08	Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xbc6362…
05-06 20:45:17	Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc0d145…
05-06 20:44:25	Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?	No	SELL	37	8¢	$3	0xa531b6…
05-01 21:01:04	Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x187b5c…
05-01 20:59:14	Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x19defd…
05-01 07:42:44	Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xeb017e…
05-01 07:38:30	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	No	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x536dd0…
05-01 07:36:16	Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x574646…
05-01 07:35:06	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	164	1¢	$1	0x90a365…