Realized P&L
-$8
Unrealized P&L
-$123
Hit rate
77.2%
Resolved
5
Trades
2,962
lifetime
Volume
$231.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$78
Open exposure
$4.35K
15 positions
First seen
2026-03-07
last 07-23 00:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
74% 100% +$41
Other
22% 50% $-50
Crypto
2%
Sports
2%
Pop-Culture
0%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 139 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,800 $2,378 70¢ $2.0K $-404 07-20 20:34
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +540 $454 86¢ $467 +$13 07-01 17:16
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +500 $441 90¢ $448 +$6 07-18 01:18
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +400 $300 78¢ $314 +$14 07-10 20:55
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +389 $328 74¢ $286 $-42 07-17 01:59
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +400 $264 66¢ $266 +$2 07-23 00:54
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No +260 $202 88¢ $230 +$28 07-15 21:40
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,000 $-460 14¢ $-135 +$325 05-28 11:25
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -100 $-99 94¢ $-94 +$4 07-09 06:38
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +100 $65 66¢ $66 +$0 07-16 09:10
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No -50 $-19 82¢ $-41 $-21 07-12 01:19
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes +100 $27 18¢ $18 $-9 07-04 07:25
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +12 $-48 70¢ $8 +$56 07-05 11:27
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No -5 $-4 90¢ $-4 $-0 06-11 01:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +138 $98 $1 $-96 06-19 21:10