Realized P&L
-$8
Unrealized P&L
+$482
Hit rate
77.2%
Resolved
5
Trades
1,819
lifetime
Volume
$160.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$88
Open exposure
$4.50K
24 positions
First seen
2026-03-07
last 06-09 22:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
77% 100% +$41
Other
20% 50% $-50
Crypto
3%
Tech
0%
Sports
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
76 active days in 12wk • peak 128 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +600 $573 97¢ $583 +$9 06-01 17:11
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +531 $485 90¢ $480 $-5 06-04 01:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +520 $433 82¢ $429 $-4 06-09 18:57
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,000 $-460 38¢ $-375 +$85 05-28 11:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +424 $345 84¢ $358 +$14 06-09 22:12
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +295 $268 96¢ $282 +$14 06-07 19:46
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No +280 $265 99¢ $276 +$11 06-10 03:43
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +225 $209 94¢ $213 +$4 06-03 22:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +220 $198 90¢ $199 +$1 06-08 17:29
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +225 $186 88¢ $197 +$11 06-07 16:27
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No -215 $-198 90¢ $-194 +$3 06-03 22:20
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +200 $158 82¢ $163 +$5 05-29 13:50
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +200 $148 73¢ $146 $-2 06-01 17:15
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No -150 $-125 92¢ $-137 $-12 05-28 14:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes -670 $-267 16¢ $-104 +$163 05-28 11:19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes -800 $-176 12¢ $-100 +$76 05-28 14:14
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No -100 $-58 68¢ $-67 $-9 05-31 03:09
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +60 $55 96¢ $57 +$2 05-28 16:10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes -400 $-72 11¢ $-42 +$30 05-28 11:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +130 $62 30¢ $40 $-23 05-31 03:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes -400 $-136 10¢ $-38 +$98 05-28 11:58
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes +1,498 $19 $10 $-9 05-30 17:40
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +7 $3 86¢ $6 +$3 06-07 18:45
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes -10 $-17 $-0 +$16 06-09 18:44