Realized P&L
+$9
Unrealized P&L
+$53
Hit rate
56.6%
Resolved
141
Trades
391
lifetime
Volume
$1.74K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$216
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 10-14 19:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 73 days
Categories
Other
52% 41% +$8
Politics
38% 41% +$8
Crypto
4% 44% $0
Tech
4% 25% -$5
Sports
3% 33% -$2
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
7 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes +39 $13 52¢ $20 +$7 07-26 17:26
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No +16 $10 88¢ $14 +$4 06-01 12:06
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No +14 $6 90¢ $12 +$6 07-24 21:26
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +19 $7 60¢ $11 +$5 07-19 07:06
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No +12 $9 88¢ $11 +$2 06-03 09:33
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +9 $6 90¢ $9 +$2 06-02 09:42
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +9 $4 99¢ $8 +$5 10-14 19:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +10 $3 88¢ $8 +$6 06-05 09:32
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -9 -$8 97¢ $-8 $0 09-06 15:19
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No -9 -$8 97¢ $-8 +$0 07-24 23:50
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No +12 $6 65¢ $8 +$2 07-18 10:39
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No -8 -$8 92¢ $-8 +$0 09-26 07:02
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? No +9 $4 82¢ $8 +$3 09-06 16:08
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No -6 -$5 97¢ $-6 -$1 10-03 22:57
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +7 $5 81¢ $6 +$1 05-30 09:23
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +6 $4 92¢ $5 +$2 05-12 18:14
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +5 $2 93¢ $5 +$3 05-26 02:05
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -5 -$5 95¢ $-5 $0 06-11 11:42
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -5 -$5 94¢ $-5 $0 06-11 11:42
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -5 -$5 93¢ $-5 $0 06-11 11:42
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? No -12 -$4 40¢ $-5 -$1 05-22 05:38
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No -5 -$5 93¢ $-5 $0 09-06 15:20
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +6 $3 84¢ $5 +$2 06-10 18:26
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No +5 $4 90¢ $5 +$1 06-11 14:18
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026? Yes +5 $4 88¢ $5 +$1 06-11 15:08
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +12 $5 36¢ $4 $0 07-25 00:44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 84¢ $4 +$2 05-15 18:10
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +5 $3 82¢ $4 +$2 07-08 15:18
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +5 $4 83¢ $4 +$1 06-11 14:06
Kash Patel out by December 31? No +5 $2 80¢ $4 +$2 06-10 17:41