Realized P&L
+$13.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.25K
Hit rate
84.2%
Resolved
271
Trades
3,880
lifetime
Volume
$790.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$204
Open exposure
$27.2K
23 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 10-26 02:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 107 days
Categories
Other
51% 84% +$10,558
Politics
41% 72% +$2,586
Tech
6% 77% +$65
Crypto
2% 33% +$458
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
56 active days in 12wk • peak 179 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No +3,803 $3,541 95¢ $3.6K +$63 10-16 00:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +4,000 $3,141 82¢ $3.3K +$119 10-25 03:02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +3,579 $2,865 86¢ $3.1K +$206 09-01 23:42
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No -2,750 -$2,500 97¢ $-2663 -$164 05-11 09:01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +3,000 $2,183 82¢ $2.5K +$292 10-13 14:52
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +2,400 $1,884 97¢ $2.3K +$444 10-23 06:01
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No +2,000 $1,260 82¢ $1.6K +$390 10-02 21:55
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +1,900 $1,370 82¢ $1.5K +$178 10-16 15:06
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -1,131 -$1,045 99¢ $-1115 -$71 06-06 08:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +1,000 $980 98¢ $982 +$2 10-22 10:46
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? No +1,000 $940 96¢ $955 +$15 09-20 07:07
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +1,000 $910 92¢ $915 +$5 10-23 07:25
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +680 $67 88¢ $596 +$528 09-30 19:48
US x China Military clash before 2027? No -600 -$559 98¢ $-585 -$26 05-11 08:46
trump meets with putin by december 31 Yes +600 $240 82¢ $495 +$255 08-22 22:43
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +407 $301 86¢ $348 +$47 08-07 13:04
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +316 $243 81¢ $256 +$13 08-04 08:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +200 $157 84¢ $167 +$10 10-23 18:37
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -120 -$95 92¢ $-110 -$15 07-18 18:06
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No -100 -$22 22¢ $-21 +$1 08-21 02:01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes -120 -$54 8¢ $-10 +$44 06-06 02:55
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +0 -$32 92¢ $0 +$32 07-31 06:14
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? No +0 $119 23¢ $0 -$119 10-23 19:45