Tough-Investigator — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,927

lifetime

Volume

$648.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$222

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-09 21:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

49% — —

Politics

43% 50% $-20

Tech

7% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 113 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	157	$51.6K	27,560	33,048	-5,488	open	—	06-26 13:22
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	77	$35.1K	22,571	13,473	+9,099	open	—	07-02 15:17
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	32	$28.9K	15,159	15,159	+0	open	—	07-14 06:49
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	2	$25.8K	25,000	1,000	+24,000	open	—	01-04 12:59
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	37	$22.6K	22,527	6,549	+15,978	open	—	03-11 01:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	37	$17.7K	10,958	11,094	-136	open	—	07-22 16:37
will trump visit china by march 31	20	$17.1K	11,600	5,800	+5,800	open	—	03-23 11:52
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	48	$14.9K	8,685	8,685	+0	open	—	08-06 18:48
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	55	$12.1K	11,570	1,650	+9,920	open	—	07-21 11:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	30	$11.7K	2,537	9,360	-6,823	open	—	06-30 16:33
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	31	$11.5K	6,378	5,369	+1,009	open	—	06-13 18:41
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	17	$10.4K	11,050	0	+11,050	open	—	06-02 16:15
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	17	$10.2K	7,472	3,010	+4,462	open	—	07-28 16:45
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	49	$10.0K	5,978	5,978	+0	open	—	07-19 17:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	39	$9.1K	4,913	4,913	+0	open	—	04-29 05:40
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	30	$9.0K	9,459	1,000	+8,459	open	—	06-01 01:20
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	7	$8.3K	4,307	5,027	-720	open	—	06-17 06:13
will trump meet with jerome powell by january 31 2026	10	$7.8K	7,803	0	+7,803	open	—	02-01 09:42
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	4	$7.2K	4,020	4,020	+0	open	—	06-14 04:30
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	35	$7.2K	5,559	5,848	-289	open	—	04-24 12:46
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	51	$6.8K	4,529	4,629	-100	open	—	06-12 14:33
kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	6	$6.7K	6,947	0	+6,947	open	—	08-06 16:08
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	54	$6.5K	6,121	4,266	+1,856	open	—	08-04 17:10
will the government shutdown last 30 days or more 558 354 297 785 675	29	$5.8K	6,055	0	+6,055	open	—	02-01 10:03
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	40	$5.7K	3,964	3,926	+38	open	—	06-09 08:45
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	23	$5.7K	3,800	3,800	+0	open	—	07-24 07:50
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	39	$5.6K	5,400	400	+5,000	open	—	07-04 06:04
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	51	$5.6K	8,853	5,287	+3,566	open	—	07-07 02:00
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	84	$5.5K	3,236	2,980	+256	open	—	06-30 18:15
iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	13	$5.2K	4,855	600	+4,255	open	—	07-12 00:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 03:07:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	400	95¢	$380	0xd727c7…
08-10 02:52:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x704bbb…
08-10 01:23:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x5515bc…
08-09 21:47:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	300	84¢	$252	0x8f557d…
08-09 20:18:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x45f6fe…
08-09 19:54:57	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	200	40¢	$80	0x0f4629…
08-09 19:47:48	will apple purchase memory cxmt chips in 2026 20260630171913147	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0xe8307d…
08-09 19:35:40	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0x477f98…
08-09 19:03:37	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x6677f4…
08-09 18:56:21	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	151	39¢	$59	0x721876…
08-09 18:52:58	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xa63e89…
08-09 18:50:28	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	58	39¢	$23	0x7a3e33…
08-09 18:07:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0x3d4908…
08-09 10:57:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	83¢	$830	0x2f16e9…
08-09 04:44:04	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x89b686…
08-09 01:45:58	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	4	96¢	$3	0x981bc7…
08-09 01:40:13	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0x6f7dd3…
08-09 00:47:07	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	35	96¢	$34	0x7626a3…
08-08 23:10:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0xa0cc3a…
08-08 21:59:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x6ea897…
08-08 21:39:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	400	95¢	$382	0xcd29f0…
08-08 21:31:06	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xbd8d73…
08-08 21:31:01	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x5983a8…
08-08 20:35:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	124	80¢	$99	0xe9ee5c…
08-08 20:16:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	76	80¢	$61	0x99a2fe…
08-08 19:31:46	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	400	95¢	$381	0xc40269…
08-08 19:29:45	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0xecdd6f…
08-08 19:28:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,250	43¢	$538	0x7643b2…
08-08 19:08:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x5123d1…
08-08 15:49:19	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	BUY	287	91¢	$262	0x8db097…
08-08 15:20:58	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0xae627e…
08-08 15:07:58	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	BUY	107	91¢	$97	0x3404ab…
08-08 13:52:45	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0x612ddd…
08-08 13:52:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x7a9155…
08-08 13:52:06	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0xcb3461…
08-08 13:52:04	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0x58b3bd…
08-08 13:49:43	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	28	72¢	$20	0x1b66ea…
08-08 06:32:48	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	400	95¢	$382	0xfcfafb…
08-08 06:32:48	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	400	95¢	$380	0x5f36b8…
08-07 18:42:28	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	29	46¢	$13	0xbfeba4…
08-07 18:19:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x1eb62f…
08-07 18:02:00	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	285	96¢	$273	0x7014bc…
08-07 17:09:54	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	11	46¢	$5	0xae2310…
08-07 15:47:19	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	110	46¢	$51	0x86c851…
08-07 14:39:54	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	775	97¢	$751	0x437658…
08-07 13:04:09	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	122	74¢	$90	0x42bd45…
08-07 11:59:00	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x0fc706…
08-07 11:42:10	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x0f9fd0…
08-07 11:00:19	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x59eb1a…
08-07 10:46:36	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe936dc…
08-07 10:32:42	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	115	74¢	$85	0x22273c…
08-07 09:56:40	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	212	97¢	$206	0xa3d366…
08-07 09:49:27	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xc68e6e…
08-07 04:38:01	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	113	74¢	$84	0xb2c0f2…
08-07 03:49:09	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xc1ed1e…
08-07 03:49:06	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x1de4a5…
08-06 20:35:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xdff767…
08-06 18:48:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1,498	87¢	$1,303	0xf93630…
08-06 16:36:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	250	37¢	$92	0x7e737d…
08-06 16:08:54	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	BUY	250	95¢	$237	0x3f02bc…
08-06 16:08:54	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	BUY	250	95¢	$238	0x0513d3…
08-06 16:01:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,498	84¢	$1,258	0xaacd31…
08-06 14:47:35	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	250	69¢	$173	0x6abbaf…
08-06 14:41:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	198	67¢	$133	0xafc4a6…
08-06 14:41:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x3e5ffa…
08-06 14:08:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	250	65¢	$163	0xb4f7bd…
08-06 11:57:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	38¢	$380	0x5b4415…
08-06 11:56:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	129	70¢	$90	0xb18e22…
08-06 11:56:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	28	70¢	$20	0xfa2d3b…
08-06 11:41:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0xf3df73…
08-06 11:41:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0x2abfd3…
08-06 11:18:50	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x826980…
08-06 11:18:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x778205…
08-06 09:33:20	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	74	71¢	$52	0x89a73a…
08-06 09:33:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	19	71¢	$14	0x983204…
08-06 09:33:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	107	71¢	$76	0x57b017…
08-06 09:31:35	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	200	70¢	$139	0x64c413…
08-06 09:19:57	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	No	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0xd5db0e…
08-06 08:58:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	200	67¢	$133	0x455ed2…
08-06 08:57:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0x27c095…
08-06 08:33:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	200	68¢	$136	0xd6c8a1…
08-06 07:01:26	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	80	64¢	$51	0xad5dfa…
08-06 06:40:44	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	200	66¢	$133	0x550df1…
08-06 06:03:47	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	55	64¢	$35	0x92e9d4…
08-06 05:13:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	24	65¢	$15	0x7571c7…
08-06 05:09:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	202	65¢	$132	0x502719…
08-06 05:09:08	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	374	65¢	$244	0xa0b4c5…
08-05 20:06:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	250	88¢	$220	0xd1fbb9…
08-05 17:36:17	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	183	86¢	$157	0x260909…
08-05 17:36:11	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	117	86¢	$101	0xb805de…
08-05 17:36:06	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	150	87¢	$130	0x9576eb…
08-05 17:36:06	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x2d7a0f…
08-05 14:42:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	BUY	3,600	96¢	$3,467	0x8f37a0…
08-05 14:40:05	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	BUY	2,447	96¢	$2,357	0x61269e…
08-05 12:41:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	250	89¢	$222	0x207dca…
08-05 09:41:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	250	90¢	$225	0x924656…
08-05 09:14:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	90	76¢	$68	0x029354…
08-05 08:11:47	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x4303cb…
08-05 08:03:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	250	89¢	$222	0x3063ef…
08-05 07:49:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xae997f…