Realized P&L
-$710
Unrealized P&L
+$15
Hit rate
76.8%
Resolved
759
Trades
2,043
lifetime
Volume
$15.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$195
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-12 12:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 97 days
Categories
Other
63% 54% -$544
Politics
29% 50% -$33
Sports
5% 40% -$109
Crypto
4% 34% -$24
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
9 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +84 $64 84¢ $70 +$6 05-11 18:56
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -46 -$27 64¢ $-30 -$2 05-04 09:47
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -36 -$39 82¢ $-29 +$10 09-07 15:16
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -41 -$15 34¢ $-14 +$1 05-04 09:47
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No -36 -$2 19¢ $-7 -$5 09-03 08:34
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +99 $8 4¢ $4 -$4 10-12 12:18
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -361 -$3 1¢ $-3 $0 06-21 20:54
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +3 -$6 92¢ $3 +$9 10-12 12:21
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +24 $4 12¢ $3 -$1 05-19 14:45
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -28 -$5 10¢ $-3 +$2 06-21 20:51
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +50 $3 6¢ $3 $0 07-01 20:58
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -80 -$2 3¢ $-2 +$0 05-16 21:19
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -11 -$2 19¢ $-2 +$0 06-30 20:35
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No -6 -$3 34¢ $-2 +$1 05-05 09:00
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +33 $3 6¢ $2 -$1 05-10 19:55
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -231 -$3 1¢ $-2 +$1 05-16 21:18
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +148 $4 1¢ $2 -$2 10-12 12:18
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -19 -$3 8¢ $-2 +$2 05-05 09:00
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No -19 -$3 8¢ $-2 +$2 05-05 09:00
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +110 $5 1¢ $2 -$3 10-12 12:18
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes -20 -$3 8¢ $-1 +$1 05-01 09:47
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -48 -$3 3¢ $-1 +$1 05-05 08:21
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -27 -$1 5¢ $-1 +$0 09-03 08:34
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -87 -$1 2¢ $-1 +$0 07-01 21:00
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -37 -$2 4¢ $-1 +$0 05-14 13:44
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +25 $2 4¢ $1 -$1 05-19 14:43
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +42 $1 2¢ $1 $0 05-18 11:05
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes -14 -$1 5¢ $-1 +$0 07-01 20:59
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October? Yes +251 $2 0¢ $0 -$2 10-05 06:44
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? Yes +250 $1 0¢ $0 -$1 10-05 06:45