Hopeful-Container — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.81K

Unrealized P&L

+$74

Hit rate

79.1%

Resolved

1,126

Trades

4,479

lifetime

Volume

$36.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$1.54K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 21:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 195 days

Categories

Politics

48% 71% +$1,722

Other

36% 72% +$1,855

Crypto

11% 83% +$166

Sports

3% 56% +$25

Tech

1% 100% +$43

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+300	$285	98¢	$294	+$8	10-21 23:38
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+200	$128	64¢	$129	+$1	10-20 09:00
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+130	$124	96¢	$125	+$2	08-23 19:33
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	+125	$110	97¢	$122	+$12	06-30 07:27
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+120	$108	92¢	$111	+$3	10-05 08:35
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+110	$106	97¢	$107	+$0	10-24 19:34
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+95	$83	98¢	$93	+$10	06-30 07:27
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	No	+74	$71	98¢	$73	+$3	10-08 21:39
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	-70	-$65	97¢	$-68	-$3	06-03 02:45
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	+50	$46	98¢	$49	+$3	05-23 13:38
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+50	$46	92¢	$46	+$0	10-08 17:00
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+40	$38	97¢	$39	+$0	10-08 19:03
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+30	$26	92¢	$27	+$1	10-01 09:35
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+30	$26	86¢	$26	-$1	10-08 12:22
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+200	$28	11¢	$21	-$7	09-30 08:32
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+50	$22	42¢	$21	-$1	10-24 01:25
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	+30	$18	68¢	$21	+$2	10-10 17:39
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	+20	$20	99¢	$20	+$0	08-24 14:38
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	+20	$19	97¢	$19	+$0	08-15 12:55
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+20	$16	96¢	$19	+$4	10-07 23:16
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	+50	$12	32¢	$16	+$3	10-06 18:55
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	+20	$18	75¢	$15	-$3	08-28 07:25
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	+45	$18	32¢	$14	-$3	08-25 10:08
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	No	+60	$15	20¢	$12	-$4	08-28 06:10
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+336	-$28	3¢	$11	+$39	10-20 20:02
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-100	-$15	10¢	$-10	+$5	05-08 06:00
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	-10	-$8	94¢	$-9	-$1	05-22 21:46
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	+11	$10	84¢	$9	$0	10-05 06:43
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+10	$9	94¢	$9	$0	08-18 22:01
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	+10	$8	92¢	$9	+$1	05-08 07:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel or the us target fordow nuclear facility	153	$969	1,070	847	+223	No	+$56	03-27 21:53
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	153	$875	1,080	857	+223	No	-$7	03-27 21:53
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week?	42	$675	456	338	+118	Yes	-$19	05-31 03:04
us strikes iraq by february 28	62	$593	2,620	2,913	-293	Yes	+$554	03-04 00:53
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	21	$558	702	702	+0	No	+$495	05-15 17:03
Will Trump say "ICE" during Cabinet meeting?	5	$420	212	212	+0	Yes	+$0	05-27 17:08
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?	22	$419	320	508	-188	No	+$145	05-31 17:23
Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?	12	$369	260	140	+120	No	+$30	09-30 12:14
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in the Antioquia Department?	11	$338	183	183	+0	No	+$27	06-04 07:18
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	20	$311	171	171	+0	No	-$1	07-03 05:50
another critical cloudflare incident by february 28 2026	11	$310	508	488	+20	No	+$230	02-28 00:39
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	10	$287	165	165	+0	open	—	05-27 18:12
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	11	$285	300	0	+300	open	—	10-21 23:38
Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	10	$279	241	106	+135	open	—	10-22 14:13
will xrp be the top performing crypto for the week of march 16	13	$270	166	171	-5	Yes	+$67	03-23 01:43
will bitcoin be the top performing crypto for the week of march 2	28	$243	213	172	+42	Yes	+$13	03-08 16:23
atp comesan pellegr 2026 02 25	16	$240	195	174	+21	Pellegrino	+$1	02-25 20:58
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	23	$229	157	157	+0	Yes	+$43	02-28 07:37
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	22	$224	205	174	+31	No	-$12	01-19 14:16
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	34	$220	165	175	-10	Yes	+$26	06-30 19:33
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	15	$217	320	320	+0	No	+$188	05-15 17:01
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	32	$213	184	151	+33	No	+$48	10-04 21:23
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	18	$209	260	260	+0	No	+$123	05-15 17:01
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	8	$204	100	116	-16	No	+$10	07-01 23:43
chi1 cdu cuc 2026 03 01 cdu	4	$198	763	763	+0	No	-$46	03-02 01:17
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	4	$192	100	100	+0	No	+$1	05-12 20:57
Will Colorado have the closest Senate race in 2026?	3	$189	100	100	+0	No	+$9	09-11 12:01
will israel strike iraq by february 28	6	$186	196	196	+0	No	+$174	02-28 09:20
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	11	$164	251	251	+0	open	—	10-06 05:14
Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23?	9	$162	259	150	+109	No	-$46	10-21 20:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 21:52:02	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x6b07ab…
10-26 21:48:18	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x44d570…
10-26 21:34:36	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x8edbe5…
10-26 21:29:02	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xb5d6c5…
10-26 00:10:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x3ad88e…
10-25 23:39:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xb8d7cb…
10-25 23:28:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x8006b7…
10-25 23:28:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x638b30…
10-25 23:27:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x143ad9…
10-25 22:53:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xdeb075…
10-25 22:49:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	15	62¢	$9	0xd41e64…
10-25 22:49:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x42fe9b…
10-25 22:46:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	62¢	$19	0x9a6d00…
10-24 19:34:18	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0xc7bdcf…
10-24 01:49:11	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x12c719…
10-24 01:37:36	Will PP win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3ec4cc…
10-24 01:37:11	Will Vox win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xd1ddf0…
10-24 01:25:32	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xb5db70…
10-24 01:25:21	Will the Republican Party hold 48 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xa7cc41…
10-24 01:25:20	Will the Republican Party hold 48 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x86a8d5…
10-24 01:17:06	Will Vox win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x2b6e39…
10-24 01:17:02	Will PP win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xe76609…
10-23 21:56:38	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xc999fa…
10-23 20:04:09	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	20¢	$6	0xdbb7e9…
10-23 20:02:36	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	17¢	$5	0x1ca8b5…
10-23 20:01:44	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x95e6ae…
10-23 20:01:33	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xe345bc…
10-23 18:40:51	Will the Republican Party hold 48 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xa21e0a…
10-23 17:18:09	Will Vox win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x633427…
10-23 17:18:02	Will PP win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xca914f…
10-23 15:50:42	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0xd332f4…
10-23 15:50:33	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x50aa4e…
10-23 15:46:29	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x10f833…
10-23 15:21:11	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x5f2671…
10-23 14:57:57	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0xd96b06…
10-23 14:36:39	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	19	90¢	$17	0x433b6d…
10-23 13:11:18	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x211980…
10-23 13:01:50	Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	36	79¢	$28	0xe62888…
10-22 23:26:26	Will Andy Burnham say "Wales" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0xc9b099…
10-22 20:18:24	Democratic Senate odds 58-60% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xeca5a3…
10-22 19:07:51	Democratic Senate odds 58-60% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x53468c…
10-22 19:07:45	Democratic Senate odds 58-60% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x032427…
10-22 17:45:27	Democratic Senate odds 58-60% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0xe979fc…
10-22 17:45:27	Democratic Senate odds 58-60% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x74930e…
10-22 14:37:41	Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 23?	Yes	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0x546c0f…
10-22 14:21:23	Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 23?	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0xeabab1…
10-22 14:13:44	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0x4c17b1…
10-22 14:11:00	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x5a3320…
10-22 12:51:12	Democratic Senate odds 58-60% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5c58a6…
10-22 06:20:52	Will Nayib Bukele win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xbad5ea…
10-22 05:41:46	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0x67b13b…
10-22 04:47:33	Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	82	0¢	$0	0x615c71…
10-22 00:55:12	Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xc33cdf…
10-22 00:30:50	Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 23?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xf964cc…
10-22 00:15:11	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x8939d7…
10-22 00:07:38	Democratic Senate odds 58-60% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xb06dbc…
10-21 23:54:12	Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xf409fb…
10-21 23:54:12	Democratic Senate odds 58-60% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x8fe1c9…
10-21 23:46:24	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0x671517…
10-21 23:38:45	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	110	97¢	$107	0x7f1aa0…
10-21 21:20:51	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x30698c…
10-21 21:14:38	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5c7101…
10-21 20:58:02	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23?	Yes	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0x761e47…
10-21 20:42:00	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23?	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x9f7864…
10-21 20:32:44	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23?	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xe3327d…
10-21 20:31:44	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x0d5b41…
10-21 20:28:42	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x4091b1…
10-21 20:28:15	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x100a40…
10-21 20:28:03	Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x1b8de3…
10-21 17:37:14	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0xfca363…
10-21 14:28:33	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	19	60¢	$11	0xe32949…
10-21 13:25:27	Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 23?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x9932a6…
10-21 03:41:17	Will Andy Burnham say "Wales" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x62beef…
10-21 02:48:08	Will Andy Burnham say "Wales" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x31ce6c…
10-20 20:02:21	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	336	5¢	$16	0x648b65…
10-20 19:23:05	Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x993548…
10-20 18:17:17	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	224	5¢	$10	0x616ef0…
10-20 17:32:42	Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 23?	Yes	SELL	58	40¢	$23	0x9edfc4…
10-20 17:28:24	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	199	41¢	$82	0x5432ec…
10-20 15:28:51	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	262	5¢	$13	0x2444d0…
10-20 15:27:32	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x1ae84b…
10-20 15:22:08	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x56a327…
10-20 15:20:14	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0x5ec7ea…
10-20 13:24:17	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xb5a910…
10-20 13:14:36	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x392649…
10-20 12:56:45	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x983d92…
10-20 09:00:58	Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0xde8547…
10-19 22:04:57	Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x553cc3…
10-18 11:24:05	Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x264ba4…
10-17 18:43:45	Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 23?	Yes	BUY	150	37¢	$55	0x12b38a…
10-17 07:44:29	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x699e8a…
10-16 20:58:26	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	Yes	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0xc08a35…
10-16 15:53:39	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 16?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xa6f670…
10-16 15:46:27	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 16?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x699652…
10-16 15:04:37	Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on October 16?	Yes	SELL	52	2¢	$1	0x9b381a…
10-16 15:04:27	Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on October 16?	Yes	SELL	24	2¢	$1	0x70e820…
10-16 07:52:22	democratic senate odds 62 64 on october 23	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x3190c0…
10-16 04:00:43	democratic senate odds 62 64 on october 23	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0xe7f2a1…
10-16 03:03:12	democratic senate odds 62 64 on october 23	Yes	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x553aab…
10-16 03:01:12	democratic senate odds 62 64 on october 23	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xa40067…