Trained-Subsidence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$928

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.8%

Resolved

537

Trades

2,176

lifetime

Volume

$27.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-21 00:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 121 days

Categories

Other

47% 34% +$229

Politics

43% 33% -$1,092

Crypto

4% 47% -$16

Sports

4% 44% -$15

Pop-Culture

2% 36% -$23

Tech

0% 0% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	29	$816	886	886	+0	Yes	-$131	04-19 23:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	14	$701	583	583	+0	Yes	-$13	04-11 20:21
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	19	$654	2,102	2,102	+0	Yes	-$226	04-08 01:01
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	14	$646	545	545	+0	No	+$82	03-31 18:57
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	10	$565	375	375	+0	Yes	+$63	04-03 20:09
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	21	$447	1,208	720	+488	Yes	-$155	03-29 21:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	8	$445	432	599	-167	Yes	+$18	02-28 22:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	16	$440	357	357	+0	No	+$23	06-20 12:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	7	$435	990	990	+0	No	+$14	06-18 23:08
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	10	$427	264	264	+0	Yes	-$12	06-03 01:15
will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 10 15	34	$379	532	392	+140	No	-$89	04-19 00:46
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	4	$348	185	185	+0	No	+$22	06-01 02:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	4	$346	185	185	+0	No	+$13	05-26 18:25
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	11	$341	360	360	+0	Yes	+$217	05-08 16:28
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	27	$336	422	422	+0	Yes	-$3	05-05 17:37
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	6	$319	232	232	+0	No	+$125	05-09 00:53
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	10	$308	399	399	+0	Yes	-$68	04-08 00:32
will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 15 20	20	$298	395	395	+0	No	-$14	04-19 19:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	16	$281	277	277	+0	No	-$57	04-25 15:23
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	9	$278	269	303	-34	Yes	-$69	04-09 00:52
will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by at least 20	7	$264	165	165	+0	Yes	+$44	04-19 22:13
will we continue the change democratic bulgaria ppdb finish second in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	30	$263	384	384	+0	No	-$21	04-20 11:12
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	8	$261	363	363	+0	Yes	+$57	01-15 13:13
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	13	$260	302	302	+0	No	-$15	05-26 01:04
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	8	$249	390	387	+3	Yes	-$31	04-29 15:37
Nothing Ever Happens: March	8	$247	236	236	+0	Nothing	+$9	03-27 02:59
will we continue the change democratic bulgaria ppdb finish third in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	12	$220	195	195	+0	Yes	+$10	04-20 04:15
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	13	$212	148	148	+0	No	+$6	04-23 14:45
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	13	$211	766	766	+0	Yes	-$46	04-07 23:45
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	6	$210	180	180	+0	No	+$74	03-12 20:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 00:00:35	Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$3	0x4b5ff6…
10-21 00:00:27	Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	21	24¢	$5	0x65bee6…
10-21 00:00:20	Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	60	16¢	$10	0x98f05f…
10-21 00:00:12	Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0xc66111…
10-18 13:12:36	Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	45	31¢	$14	0x1a9242…
10-18 13:09:59	Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	15	31¢	$5	0x8a9397…
10-18 13:09:15	Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xf98415…
10-18 13:08:27	Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	56¢	$1	0x28f8dd…
10-16 07:47:36	Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x57e63d…
10-16 03:05:39	Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x7d0645…
08-03 13:08:21	Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0x93a156…
08-03 13:08:15	Will Aster reach $1.60 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xa49634…
07-31 00:09:24	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0x0a91e8…
07-04 02:11:22	Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xd9d750…
07-04 02:07:43	Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x3b1779…
07-01 15:07:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	116	68¢	$79	0x897794…
06-29 17:41:38	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x77410b…
06-29 17:41:28	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	39	53¢	$21	0xf9f0f5…
06-29 17:41:11	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	9	41¢	$4	0xf2f246…
06-28 10:12:44	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	105	0¢	$0	0x3632f9…
06-27 08:21:47	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0x047e09…
06-26 17:33:01	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	119	0¢	$0	0x5a4aeb…
06-25 20:45:01	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xbc2d97…
06-24 21:38:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	49	71¢	$35	0x740bc1…
06-24 16:14:43	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x215457…
06-24 16:14:31	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	SELL	39	5¢	$2	0x9e8d14…
06-24 16:14:22	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	21	38¢	$8	0x24c8c1…
06-24 15:27:38	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xc67993…
06-24 01:03:41	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0xf7e53a…
06-24 01:03:22	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	58	16¢	$9	0x0440e1…
06-23 12:47:58	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x2871e0…
06-23 12:47:14	Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x852362…
06-23 12:47:07	Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	111	0¢	$0	0x2a6f28…
06-23 12:46:53	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x7945e4…
06-23 12:46:01	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0xcd8e40…
06-23 12:45:47	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xb5e745…
06-22 19:31:25	Will France win on 2026-06-22?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xefb1bd…
06-22 19:05:10	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xa300c8…
06-22 19:04:40	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	44	77¢	$34	0xa2280c…
06-22 02:45:04	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0xd04b70…
06-22 02:44:17	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xf0fc3c…
06-22 02:43:52	starmer out by june 24 2026	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xb35aa8…
06-22 02:43:10	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	238	2¢	$5	0xf37bb6…
06-22 02:42:17	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0xc4d797…
06-22 02:41:34	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	9¢	$3	0x727cde…
06-22 01:21:38	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 corners total 10pt5	Over	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x573210…
06-22 01:13:34	Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	667	0¢	$1	0x9ee7eb…
06-22 01:13:26	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	101	1¢	$1	0x9d6389…
06-22 01:13:16	Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	375	0¢	$1	0x64171f…
06-22 01:13:08	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	1¢	$0	0x9bd253…
06-22 01:12:59	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x775830…
06-22 01:05:53	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 corners total 10pt5	Over	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xdeebff…
06-22 01:00:41	starmer out by june 24 2026	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xe3fcca…
06-22 01:00:23	starmer out by june 23 2026	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x5c1f26…
06-22 00:59:02	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0xa4cafe…
06-21 19:54:52	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x7fb52e…
06-21 14:11:02	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x8adb88…
06-21 14:10:53	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x422179…
06-21 14:10:41	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xd77e82…
06-21 14:09:49	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xbdd53b…
06-20 21:32:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	78	5¢	$4	0xa6d402…
06-20 20:59:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	78	13¢	$10	0x418476…
06-20 20:55:31	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	7¢	$2	0x6af6f6…
06-20 12:59:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 12:55 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x66ccc3…
06-20 12:57:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x734bc2…
06-20 12:22:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	32	56¢	$18	0x9819c9…
06-19 18:10:44	fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x25f867…
06-19 18:09:52	Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x110d4e…
06-19 18:07:49	Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xe71c0a…
06-19 14:27:20	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	6¢	$3	0x5ae5a8…
06-18 23:29:34	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xcf0943…
06-18 23:11:17	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x9f2033…
06-18 23:08:58	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0x9fcbe5…
06-18 23:08:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	749	0¢	$1	0x817860…
06-18 23:08:37	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x543450…
06-18 23:08:20	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x6c950c…
06-18 23:06:49	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?	Yes	SELL	29	9¢	$3	0x6de834…
06-18 23:06:02	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x428f17…
06-18 23:00:16	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x4ee20c…
06-18 22:53:50	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?	Yes	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0xe5cfb0…
06-18 22:53:50	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x3afc61…
06-18 22:53:50	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x16a289…
06-18 22:52:59	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0xf1d74b…
06-18 22:52:59	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?	Yes	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0xee2df0…
06-18 22:52:59	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xed794a…
06-18 22:52:59	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xcb2350…
06-18 22:52:59	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?	Yes	BUY	13	6¢	$1	0xc527d0…
06-18 22:52:59	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xacf0ca…
06-18 22:52:59	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x5c5c56…
06-18 22:52:59	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x57fa3f…
06-18 22:52:59	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?	Yes	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0x116c89…
06-18 22:51:37	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	No	SELL	52	81¢	$42	0x543e65…
06-18 22:49:35	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x0f0b82…
06-18 18:53:22	Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$2	0xfa8635…
06-17 21:11:38	Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x22fbec…
06-17 20:53:52	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x117cc2…
06-17 16:30:22	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 goals cristiano ronaldo gte3	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x1d21c0…
06-17 16:30:07	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 goals cristiano ronaldo gte2	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xaf3bdb…
06-17 16:29:29	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xced438…
06-17 16:29:13	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xdbbe81…