Trained-Subsidence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$62

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

74.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,633

lifetime

Volume

$22.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$33

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-01 15:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

49% — —

Other

41% 38% +$78

Crypto

5% 100% +$13

Sports

4% 12% $-28

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026?	No	+60	$23	50¢	$30	+$7	06-04 22:59
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	+9	$6	16¢	$2	$-4	06-05 19:56
Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+4	$1	21¢	$1	$-0	05-31 13:23
Will Aster reach $1.60 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+10	$1	8¢	$1	$-0	06-17 09:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	29	$816	886	886	+0	open	—	04-19 23:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	14	$701	583	583	+0	open	—	04-11 20:21
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	19	$654	2,102	2,102	+0	open	—	04-08 01:01
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	14	$646	545	545	+0	open	—	03-31 18:57
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	10	$565	375	375	+0	open	—	04-03 20:09
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	21	$447	1,208	720	+488	open	—	03-29 21:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	8	$445	432	599	-167	open	—	02-28 22:39
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	10	$427	264	264	+0	open	—	06-03 01:15
will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 10 15	34	$379	532	392	+140	open	—	04-19 00:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	4	$346	185	185	+0	open	—	05-26 18:25
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	6	$319	232	232	+0	No	+$125	05-09 00:53
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	10	$308	399	399	+0	open	—	04-08 00:32
will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 15 20	20	$298	395	395	+0	open	—	04-19 19:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	16	$281	277	277	+0	open	—	04-25 15:23
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	23	$280	342	342	+0	open	—	04-25 11:58
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	9	$278	269	303	-34	open	—	04-09 00:52
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	2	$269	92	185	-93	open	—	06-01 02:29
will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by at least 20	7	$264	165	165	+0	open	—	04-19 22:13
will we continue the change democratic bulgaria ppdb finish second in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	30	$263	384	384	+0	open	—	04-20 11:12
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	8	$261	363	363	+0	open	—	01-15 13:13
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	13	$260	302	302	+0	open	—	05-26 01:04
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	8	$249	390	387	+3	open	—	04-29 15:37
Nothing Ever Happens: March	8	$247	236	236	+0	open	—	03-27 02:59
will we continue the change democratic bulgaria ppdb finish third in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	12	$220	195	195	+0	open	—	04-20 04:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$217	156	156	+0	open	—	06-20 12:57
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	13	$212	148	148	+0	open	—	04-23 14:45
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	13	$211	766	766	+0	open	—	04-07 23:45
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	6	$210	180	180	+0	open	—	03-12 20:14
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	15	$204	398	398	+0	open	—	04-07 22:42
will progressive bulgaria pb win 95 or more seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	7	$195	128	128	+0	open	—	04-19 17:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 15:07:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	116	68¢	$79	0x897794…
06-24 21:38:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	49	71¢	$35	0x740bc1…
06-24 16:14:31	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	SELL	39	5¢	$2	0x9e8d14…
06-24 01:03:22	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	58	16¢	$9	0x0440e1…
06-22 02:44:17	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xf0fc3c…
06-22 02:43:52	starmer out by june 24 2026	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xb35aa8…
06-22 02:41:34	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	9¢	$3	0x727cde…
06-22 01:21:38	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 corners total 10pt5	Over	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x573210…
06-22 01:05:53	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 corners total 10pt5	Over	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xdeebff…
06-22 01:00:41	starmer out by june 24 2026	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xe3fcca…
06-22 01:00:23	starmer out by june 23 2026	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x5c1f26…
06-22 00:59:02	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0xa4cafe…
06-21 19:54:52	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x7fb52e…
06-21 14:11:02	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x8adb88…
06-21 14:10:53	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x422179…
06-21 14:10:41	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xd77e82…
06-20 21:32:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	78	5¢	$4	0xa6d402…
06-20 20:59:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	78	13¢	$10	0x418476…
06-20 20:55:31	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	7¢	$2	0x6af6f6…
06-20 12:59:31	btc updown 5m 1781960100	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x66ccc3…
06-20 12:57:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x734bc2…
06-20 12:22:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	32	56¢	$18	0x9819c9…
06-19 18:10:44	fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x25f867…
06-18 23:29:34	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xcf0943…
06-18 23:11:17	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x9f2033…
06-18 23:08:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	749	0¢	$1	0x817860…
06-18 22:51:37	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	No	SELL	52	81¢	$42	0x543e65…
06-17 16:30:22	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 goals cristiano ronaldo gte3	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x1d21c0…
06-17 16:30:07	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 goals cristiano ronaldo gte2	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xaf3bdb…
06-17 15:47:52	fifwc gha pan 2026 06 17 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x469be9…
06-17 15:12:13	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	BUY	39	5¢	$2	0x7bad89…
06-17 09:16:10	Will Aster reach $1.60 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xe7dbd8…
06-17 02:17:03	fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	22	38¢	$8	0xa5b865…
06-17 01:12:11	fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xe27694…
06-16 03:47:37	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	58	17¢	$10	0x01316e…
06-16 02:27:24	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x569e23…
06-16 01:37:30	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 btts first half	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x27d4f2…
06-15 22:03:00	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 btts first half	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x9e9fee…
06-15 22:02:36	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 btts first half	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x31f256…
06-14 22:05:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	749	0¢	$3	0xda1cbb…
06-14 21:21:52	Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	86¢	$25	0xb7ed56…
06-14 20:46:51	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	14	55¢	$8	0x4d5cd9…
06-14 19:03:31	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 8pt5	Under	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x899157…
06-14 18:54:04	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	10	75¢	$7	0xb66172…
06-14 18:53:10	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	18¢	$7	0x7255a0…
06-14 18:52:22	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	5	66¢	$4	0x284e03…
06-14 11:35:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	49	59¢	$29	0x4c1d2c…
06-14 09:09:09	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 btts	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0xb2d460…
06-14 01:48:43	fifwc hai sco 2026 06 13 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xb91db1…
06-13 22:29:16	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xd094d7…
06-13 20:53:58	Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	88¢	$9	0xab71b6…
06-12 16:00:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x7352aa…
06-09 16:16:06	btc updown 5m 1781021700	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xf86dd7…
06-09 14:12:30	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0xfaabc8…
06-07 22:27:12	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x3b24a6…
06-06 05:16:57	will xrp dip to 1 june 1 7 2026	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$5	0x3d6724…
06-06 05:03:42	xrp above 1 on june 6 2026	No	BUY	73	3¢	$2	0x814c1f…
06-06 04:12:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	59	25¢	$15	0xc795a5…
06-06 03:25:55	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 211pt5	Under	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x7eba0e…
06-06 03:25:45	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 219pt5	Under	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6bcd10…
06-06 03:25:33	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 209pt5	Under	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x4be0e5…
06-06 03:23:33	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 211pt5	Under	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xd20282…
06-06 03:22:19	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 215pt5	Under	SELL	16	60¢	$10	0x0a183b…
06-06 03:17:07	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Knicks	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0x30e915…
06-06 03:02:18	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 209pt5	Under	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xf00800…
06-06 02:59:09	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 209pt5	Under	SELL	11	49¢	$5	0x206a8c…
06-06 02:56:49	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 209pt5	Under	BUY	11	61¢	$7	0xea90d5…
06-06 02:46:25	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 215pt5	Under	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x3b3812…
06-06 02:31:48	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Knicks	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xaa78c2…
06-06 01:52:51	btc updown 5m 1780710600	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x80e467…
06-06 01:52:39	btc updown 5m 1780710600	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x3dea1c…
06-06 01:47:48	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 total 215pt5	Under	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x7d3ca4…
06-06 01:40:34	btc updown 5m 1780710000	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x19be30…
06-06 00:58:48	Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	91¢	$32	0xbc9e8f…
06-06 00:32:36	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Knicks	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x83def0…
06-05 19:56:43	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	26¢	$2	0x49bac4…
06-05 02:56:07	Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x7dac61…
06-05 02:54:01	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x0b2226…
06-05 00:48:00	Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	75¢	$26	0x04310a…
06-05 00:47:37	Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x7ab7f6…
06-04 23:25:21	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	35	26¢	$9	0x7cf65b…
06-04 22:59:48	Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	38¢	$23	0xa7dc5e…
06-04 22:59:18	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	56	93¢	$52	0xfcf485…
06-04 17:07:51	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	16	78¢	$12	0x09dfbb…
06-04 15:47:09	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x0ab2ed…
06-04 03:39:31	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x9efbe2…
06-04 03:30:04	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x7ea38a…
06-04 03:00:04	will hyperliquid reach 88 in june	Yes	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0xf86881…
06-04 02:39:03	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0x317525…
06-04 02:38:01	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x5cd954…
06-04 02:31:36	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	31	61¢	$19	0x04e521…
06-04 02:10:09	btc updown 5m 1780539000	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x6a909e…
06-04 02:08:58	btc updown 5m 1780539000	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x7ff833…
06-04 02:06:12	btc updown 5m 1780538700	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x2e5bf9…
06-04 02:04:40	btc updown 5m 1780538700	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xed4aa9…
06-04 02:02:48	will hyperliquid reach 84 in june	Yes	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0xdf5f6a…
06-04 01:59:24	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	53¢	$15	0x5be160…
06-04 01:51:55	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x1ce433…
06-04 01:48:31	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 spread home 13pt5	Spurs	SELL	11	30¢	$3	0x88cd10…
06-04 01:17:43	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 total 214pt5	Over	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xc110f7…